37 Comments
User's avatar
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Moon of alabama Believes Israel and China are big winners of the coup:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/syria-winner-and-losers-or-both.html

China because Syria will prevent the U.S. from pivoting to China.

I can see Trump withdrawing from Syria saying it’s not our problem, and letting Turkey and Israel sort it out. Why would Trump treat Syria any different than Afghanistan?

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

Interesting. Illustrates how many moving parts there are to this.

Expand full comment
Joe's avatar

What's next for Turkey in Syria?

After Assad's fall, Turkey needs to help re-establish public order and a transitional government that can secure the return of refugees

By Ragip Soylu in Ankara

Published date: 8 December 2024 18:14 GMT | Last update: 4 hours 43 mins ago

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/whats-next-turkey-syria

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Limited hangout ignoring any other countries role. No mention of Israeli support, taking of hand, etc. plus U.S. air attacks, French support, and uk.

My guess turkey and Israel are most responsible for the coup, with the U.S., France, and uk in lesser roles.

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

But consider:

Where is Turkey without NATO membership--meaning, US backing?

Where is Israel without US?

This means that their freedom of action is constrained--they can't be simply free agents.

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Interesting view of what happened in Syria. Scott Adams mentioned two movie tracks, this one is different…

https://whatthehellisgoingon.substack.com/p/wth-the-fall-of-assad

It ignores:

- Western sanctions on Assad

- turkeys backing of rebels

- Israeli support from bombings to terrorism (pagers, assassinations)

- Israel seizing of buffer zone

- U.S. bombings of Iranian militias

- uk and French support of anti Assad forces

- U.S. arming of some anti Assad forces

- western press support of “reformed” anti Assad leadership

- Arab world view of what happened in Syria

- 1922 mandate map

- ethnic / tribal / religious make up of Syria

- Syrian refugees

Expand full comment
dissonant1's avatar

Obviously a pro-Israeli government (neo-Zionist) point of view in that Israel is always portrayed as the responder rather than the aggressor, which is not accurate. She says "...the leaders of Hamas in coordination with Hezbollah and Iran" perpetrated Oct 7? I had not heard that one before and would like to see the evidence supporting that. Does she think the IDF was also involved since they were nowhere to be found that day? I won't get into the human rights violations and atrocities perpetrated by the current Israeli government in Gaza and the West Bank, as I'm quite sure she would not recognize those actions as such, anyway.

Expand full comment
dissonant1's avatar

Pretty good summary. The influence of the media highlighted, again. Both events are examples of how the ramifications can be very large and long lasting indeed when such acts are leveraged for political purposes. Thanks.

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

W's got that What me worry? look.

Expand full comment
Joe's avatar

Looks Like Russia and China may be ' playing this by the book '

I've made the suggestion before that Russia China Iran

will follow UN resolutions and play it by the book

Very interesting and important if true

https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-calls-for-un-security-council-meeting-on-syria-34072742

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

Yes. A good move. Anglo-Zionists the gangstas.

Expand full comment
Joe's avatar

Perhaps Notable:

Iran is NOT Designated by the United States as a Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization

HTS Is

https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/

May 15, 2014 al-Nusrah Front, aka Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (ANF/HTS)

— Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Amendment (June 1, 2018)

Reported HTS has inherited weaponry similar to the situation in Afghanistan

Eg: reported Several SA342 helicopters with French AS.12 Air-to-Surface Missiles captured from the Mezzeh Air Base

Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) previously declared Islamic Law / Sharia Law the only source of legislation including hudud corporal punishments, such as stoning

So US Israel Turkey in their lust to remove Assad and to do so have effectively empowered a well known and documented " Designated Terrorist Organization" with additional weaponry

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

NEW: Israel and the US are massively bombing Syria at the moment. In one day, over 100 strikes were carried out by Israel and about 75 by the United States

Expand full comment
TedTheKitty's avatar

I see a couple of Eurofighters in the air, guess the Brits didn't want to miss all the fun. They're heading back to their safe space in Cyprus.

Expand full comment
Manul's avatar

I’m sure the Congress was consulted but Biden forgot the declaration of war?

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Irishman asks Syrians in Dublin celebrating Assad's overthrow if they will now return to Syria

From

Keith Woods

1:09 PM · Dec 8, 2024

Expand full comment
Denny Corbin's avatar

This makes a larger war less likely. Russia pulls out of a conflict danger zone. Iran pulls back to better defend with less proxy war. Saving money and avoiding dangerous entanglements. Sounds smart… Sad for the minorities who will be subjected to ISIS. Sad for Kurds, Hezbollah, Gaza and West Bank, Lebanon… all sacrificed. Turkey and Israel will fight over spoils. Sunni Muslim ISIS will eventually freak out and attack Israel… they took the money and played good Goyboy for a while, but they have to hate the zionists paymasters. These ISIS fighters are probably former Bacha Bazi boys. Holding a grudge and unstable, happy to inflict mass destruction on a society that betrayed and abused them. How long will they fight for the west under the gay pride flag? Are the CIA handlers making them attend DEI training sessions? Now the mess will be exclusively the wests… it’s gonna be very expensive to keep a lid on all this. $40 trillion and counting with no intelligent plan anywhere in sight. Russia can now sit back with their hazelnuts and laugh. No bunker in the world is safe… but thankfully these recent developments make nuclear war less likely imo. Iran just needs to sell oil to china, Russia economy doing well with import replacement and natural resources to extract… the east can pass the popcorn and relax while they watch the west lose it fighting to control the mess they’ve helped create.

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

USAF is already bombing "opposition fighters/terrorists"--designation is now a matter of personal style. Of course, bombing is one thing, actual eradication is totally different.

Expand full comment
Jeff Cook-Coyle's avatar

Very glad we are not bombing Alawites and Christians.

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

I wonder if they are back to the Obama era rules of dropping warning leaflets, before bombing?

Expand full comment
Manul's avatar

Winners and losers? Have we not learned anything yet? Any nation attempting to exert control in the ME will experience a lot of pain. I hope none of these latest events encourage the US and Trump to remain in Syria to collect the spoils.

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Sounds like a huge mess:

https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1865841718366450013

And I keep coming back to the 1922 mandate map Mark posted:

https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/new-claims-end-of-assad-regime-near?

My guess next big movement will be by Turkey against Kurds trying to secede ze more territory.

Expand full comment
AmericanCardigan's avatar

Yeah, nothing like kicking the dog when the dog is down. Let's pretend to be on the righteous side now.

Expand full comment
History Lass's avatar

my head is in a muddle. Events are moving quickly. IDF is already on the move for more territory. Reports that USAF is bombing ISIS. Didnt Jake the Snake tell us ISIS was on our side in Syria. I agree Ray, the only clear thing is...it is all a HUGE mess

Expand full comment
AmericanCardigan's avatar

Netanyahu called it a temporary "defensive" move now. C'mon man.

Expand full comment
Mark Wauck's avatar

USAF bombing ISIS. Of course. As I wrote within the last week, there's no way that Syria will be allowed to become a jihadi emirate. Those terrorists aren't our allies--they're our tools. Same as all our vassal states.

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Too soon to tell. The leaders of this coup sure sound like white washed jihadi emirate types. Supposedly they outgrew that youthful phase of their life.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/damascus-now-ruled-al-qaeda-suits-assads-whereabouts-unknown-curfew-imposed

Expand full comment
dissonant1's avatar

Here's what Larry Johnson thinks about the immediate future with HTS in charge:

https://sonar21.com/syria-mission-accomplished/?jetpack_skip_subscription_popup

Expand full comment
Ray-SoCa's avatar

Good article that’s all too plausible. Reminds me of Libya after Khadify left.

Expand full comment
dissonant1's avatar

Yes, and how long has chaos reigned there now? The difference I think is Syria's much more geopolitically strategic location and proximity to Israel. For those reasons I don't think the chaos will last as long. But as Mark notes it will be VERY interesting to see how things shake out between Israel and Turkey; and to see how the Russians finesse retention of their military bases.

Expand full comment
TedTheKitty's avatar

Al-Jolani (spelled numerous ways) just gave a "victory speech". He used some interesting phrases.

https://youtube.com/shorts/WfeIJeLWHA4?si=QtfrPy3UfHnTMxLk

Expand full comment
dissonant1's avatar

This guy sure doesn't sound like a religious pluralist to me.

Expand full comment
TedTheKitty's avatar

Yep, I was thinking he still sounds pretty staunch is his "beliefs".

Expand full comment