Winners And Losers In Syria

MKB has been quick off the mark. I recommend the entire article, which elucidates some of the complexities going forward—although “going forward” is probably a concept that has doubtful application to Syria. Here are some highlights. Other Arab states will be wondering who the next will be to be cannibalized:

DECEMBER 8, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

Winners and losers in Syria

Iran and Russia are the two big losers ...

The Arab oligarchies of the Gulf region are full of trepidation over the surge of a variant of political Islam that may potentially pose an existential challenge. Unsurprisingly, they have gravitated toward Iran, whom they see as a factor of regional stability, reciprocating Tehran’s call on regional states to circle their wagons to ward off the challenge of “Takfiri” groups (codename for al-Qaeda and Islamic State in the Iranian narrative.)

Israel and Turkey are the biggest winners, ... Both are all well-set to project power into Syria and carve out their respective spheres of influence ... Turkey has demanded that Syria belongs to Syrian people alone — a thinly covered call for vacation of foreign military presence (Russian, American and Iranian.)

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..., lurking beneath the surface of the big picture, ... The US is pleased with the regime change in Damascus and will follow up with efforts seeking the closure of the Russian bases in Syria.

Second, Turkey has special interests in Syria in relation to the Kurdish problem. The weakening of the Syrian state, especially the security apparatus in Damascus, provides Turkey for the first time a free run in the northern border provinces where Kurdish separatist groups are operating. Suffice to say, Turkish occupation of Syrian territory may assume a permanent character and even a quasi-annexation of the regions is within the realms of possibility. Make no mistake, the Treaty Lausanne (1923) which Turkey regards as a national humiliation has expired and the hour of reckoning has come for reclaiming the Ottoman glory.

... According to Israeli media, Tel Aviv has direct contacts with the Islamist groups operating in southern Syria. It is no secret that these groups were mentored by the Israeli army for over a decade.

Thus, at best, a truncated Syria, a rump state, is to be expected with large scale outside interference, and in a worst case scenario, Turkish revanchism and Israeli aggression taken together — plus the American occupation of eastern Syria and a weak central authority in Damascus — the country in its present shape, founded in 1946, may altogether vanish from the map of West Asia.

In fact, the Gulf states and Egypt have reason to worry about an Arab Spring 2.0 — oligarchies being overthrown and replaced by the militant Islamist groups. Their comfort level with Tehran has perceptibly deepened. But, of course, the US will counter this regional trend which would otherwise isolate Israel in the region.

Russia is pragmatic and a foreign ministry statement on Sunday strongly hinted that Moscow has a plan B to shore up its military presence in Syria. Interestingly, the statement pointed out that Moscow is in touch will all Syrian opposition groups. The statement scrupulously avoided using the word “terrorist”, which Russian officials had been freely using to characterise the Syrian groups who have taken over Damascus.

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In comparison, Iran suffers a serious setback from which it is difficult to recover any time soon, ...

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As I’ve suggested in the past, a key area to keep an eye on will be whether the Turkish - Israeli power sharing condominium will proceed amicably. I personally doubt it and expect Turkey to attempt to extend its influence further south in Syria, as well as in Lebanon. Then again, the primary Turkish focus may turn to Iraq and Central Asia via the Caucasus. In that case there will be inevitable tension with the Anglo-Zionists.