New Claims: End Of Assad Regime Near

Jihadists Reach Outskirts Of Damascus Amid Likely Transition Of Power Deal, Assad's Fate Uncertain

The suggestions being made seem to indicate that there is some sort of deal afoot—perhaps the outcome of the talks in Doha among Turkey, Russia, and Iran. This seems plausible, given that the reports are that there is actually very little fighting going on, and that the SAA withdrawals are being accomplished in orderly fashion.

A new Syrian regime in Damascus, composed of moderate Sunni elements? Most of the country turned over to a Jihadist caliphate? What will the Kurds make of these developments? Kurdish forces are relatively well armed and trained (largely by the US) and are no friends of either the Turks or the HTS. In fact, there are only estimates of 15K jihadists, whereas the SDF numbers nearly 100K. The Kurds will not want to give up the autonomy they’ve enjoyed in recent years, nor will ordinary Syrian Sunnis welcome a Jihadist government. One would therefore guess that the jihadists will not be given free rein. Presumably the Turks are fronting for the Anglo-Zionists in any talks. The most interesting item in this report is that an Alawite homeland would remain on the coast, where the Russian bases are located.

There are widespread reports that jihadist forces under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and which are backed by Turkey have entered key districts of Homs in central Syria, and other convoys have already reached the outskirts of Damascus.

Very little fighting has actually taken place, with the Syrian Army peeling back from position after position, and with heavy equipment including tanks seen being transported to the capital or in other instances to the coast. ZeroHedge's contacts in Damascus strongly suggest a transition of power deal has already been made.

External discussions are centered in Doha, and some premature and unverified reports have claimed President Bashar al-Assad has already flown out of the country; ...

Iranian advisers and IRGC officers have departed Damascus. ...

Unverified social media reports further say that anti-Assad forces have essentially been able to walk into suburban or countryside areas of the capital with no resistance. Again, what points to the likely reality of a secret deal which allows Assad's safe exit and that of his top officials is the fact that all of this is happening without much bloodshed.

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Whatever happens next, it is becoming clear that the Baathist Syrian state under the Assad family, which goes back to 1970 when Hafez Assad first emerged in power, will never be the same again - and is coming to a fast end.

Many Christian, Alawite, and Sunni ruling families in the capital area are fleeing to the Lebanese border, not waiting around to take their chances under Taliban-style rule, despite dubious claims that HTS plans to respect 'diversity' and pluralism.

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Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observes, "It looks like what will remain of the old Syria will be limited to Homs, for now, and on longer term Latakia - Tartous only. ..."

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If this is the state of things to come, the future of Russian bases becomes very important. If an Alawite state along the coast—for which there is precedent—is viable, then those bases have a future. For reference, according to current figures Alawites are 13% of the population, Christians 10%, and Druze 3%. That’s nearly 3 million Alawites in Syria with another million in bordering areas of Turkey. These two maps below may also be relevant. The second map may actually represent a rough approximation of what could happen.

It looks like things are being sorted out, but it may be some time before the true state of affairs becomes more or less apparent. One thing seems clear, and that is that Erdogan—a serial double crosser—is the key to this.