That is a great and open question. SA and the gulf states (and Egypt) want to suppress their own Wahabi Salafist groups in the interest of maintaining their own governance. This is why they are very concerned about HTS (Muslim Brotherhood) in Syria. So, the more Israel acts against the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and the more it acts against the HTS in Syria, the more difficult it becomes for the Arab governments to keep a lid on their own rebels. Just another factor in the ME instability unleashed by the overthrow of al-Assad in Syria.
Remember those heady days of 2015-2016 when we heard “you’ll get so tired of winning, you’ll be so tired of winning!” from Trump’s campaign. Now it’s more like “ya can’t win for losing.” Prospects for peace have never seemed so dim, as Zhou and handlers - including those overseas - do all in their power to drive chaos, anarchy, bloodletting and fleeing families before and up to Jan 20.
NC writes "Syria shares a border with Türkiye, and the US has likely destabilized not just Syria but Türkiye as well with its support for the Turkish-led operation to topple Assad."
In which case, I assume the US (on behalf of the Israel Lobby) decided it was good to pull the trigger on Syria at this point in time, and it was not a surprise, it was a move on the chessboard.
No, Israel can't pull back to safety between two oceans... but our planners would do nothing to make Israel less safe, so that would have guided all calculations in Washington DC.
Yes, Turkiye has shown itself to be "an enemy to the project of Eurasian integration."
No no, the WSJ headline and subhed said that in the scramble to leave their private residence on short notice, they left behind their anxiety medications. I did not read further, because that was all I needed to know. 😬
It sure looks like it. Unlike the US/Kurds who were syphoning off a significant Syrian resource load, the only thing the Russians seemed to be getting out of their presence there was acting as a regional counterbalance. Now that it is a complete free-for-all, it's probably wise to take a seat in the bleachers (I understand that they will retain their military presences in the Med ports) and return to the game only after all antagonists have completely bloodied themselves. Russia's gain comes AFTER the chaos, not from participating in it.
“The wild, cruel beast is not behind the bars of the cage. He is in front of it.”
- Axel Munthe, 1929
"Welcome to the Jungle."
- Axl Rose, 1987
Not intending to mock your quote at all as it is spot on. These just came to my mind given the now (I think) relatively rare first name you cite.
Just to note: Axel Munthe and his "The Story of San Michelle" is an interesting read if one wants to explore the psychological neurosis among the European upper classes in the earlier years of the 20th Century.
Yes, but *any* Turkiye nation would have deep and long ties with Russia, for better or worse!
And how could the non-European crossroads-of-the-planet *not* be a "partner" with BRICS?
That said, I happen to agree that this will blow over, i.e. have little long-term effect *depending* on the nature of the new Syrian regime. I hope they are at least planning to open talks with all neighbors, including Israel.
I'm wondering how much sandbagging there has been, seeping into alternate news discourse with claims that the IDF is very tired out by the war in Gaza and Lebanon, is stretched militarily.
Financially, maybe there is a cash flow problem on the books, but off the books? How can the most powerful lobby in the US, with its interests neatly coinciding with US foreign policy, policy backed by the Federal Reserve, ever run out of cash to prosecute wars?
It's sort of like Ukraine. When there is no one left to fight and there is no one who believes in the fight (at their personal expense) that isn't promising. Seems like it might be a precursor to our situation here in the "homeland."
Can Israel survive by making peace, and surrounding "greater" Israel, with Sunnis?
Iow, can it succeed in buffering itself with Arabs that decline jihad?
That is a great and open question. SA and the gulf states (and Egypt) want to suppress their own Wahabi Salafist groups in the interest of maintaining their own governance. This is why they are very concerned about HTS (Muslim Brotherhood) in Syria. So, the more Israel acts against the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and the more it acts against the HTS in Syria, the more difficult it becomes for the Arab governments to keep a lid on their own rebels. Just another factor in the ME instability unleashed by the overthrow of al-Assad in Syria.
Thank you, dissonant1, and I agree!
But isn't it Israeli (not Netanyahu only?) aggression *at this point* that is driving events?
(Stated in the rhetorical, but posed in the ernest.)
Yet it seems Israel's existential tormentors are Shiite, who basically ordered 10/7 to stop the Abraham's.
Yes, History's most successful terrorists have been Sunni.
Hardly, the most successful have been Israeli’s backed by the US.
Insert "Western" before "History", then.
Does that fix it for you?
Nothing needed fixing, pop 122. I understood your meaning and I think Western History might suggest Sunni, but reality agrees with me. ;o)
Lol!
That fixed it for me!
most excellent!
Remember those heady days of 2015-2016 when we heard “you’ll get so tired of winning, you’ll be so tired of winning!” from Trump’s campaign. Now it’s more like “ya can’t win for losing.” Prospects for peace have never seemed so dim, as Zhou and handlers - including those overseas - do all in their power to drive chaos, anarchy, bloodletting and fleeing families before and up to Jan 20.
Might be wishful thinking but I found Alex Krainer's theory to be interesting.
Did Russia Just Set a HUGE Trap in Syria? | Alex Krainer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVMfckVQ7Hg
NC writes "Syria shares a border with Türkiye, and the US has likely destabilized not just Syria but Türkiye as well with its support for the Turkish-led operation to topple Assad."
In which case, I assume the US (on behalf of the Israel Lobby) decided it was good to pull the trigger on Syria at this point in time, and it was not a surprise, it was a move on the chessboard.
No, Israel can't pull back to safety between two oceans... but our planners would do nothing to make Israel less safe, so that would have guided all calculations in Washington DC.
Yes, Turkiye has shown itself to be "an enemy to the project of Eurasian integration."
No no, the WSJ headline and subhed said that in the scramble to leave their private residence on short notice, they left behind their anxiety medications. I did not read further, because that was all I needed to know. 😬
Wow.
It will be interesting to see how Trump handles the Middle East now.
But when you say "US controls the oil", do you mean U.S. corporations lease the rights?
Assad's wife is desperately ill, acute myeloid leukemia.
Wheels within wheels.
Is Russia the real winner?
It sure looks like it. Unlike the US/Kurds who were syphoning off a significant Syrian resource load, the only thing the Russians seemed to be getting out of their presence there was acting as a regional counterbalance. Now that it is a complete free-for-all, it's probably wise to take a seat in the bleachers (I understand that they will retain their military presences in the Med ports) and return to the game only after all antagonists have completely bloodied themselves. Russia's gain comes AFTER the chaos, not from participating in it.
I don't know.
Assad was a Russian asset.
Now, he will dine with Eddie Snowden.
"Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?" - Axel Oxenstierna 1612–1654
“The wild, cruel beast is not behind the bars of the cage. He is in front of it.”
- Axel Munthe, 1929
"Welcome to the Jungle."
- Axl Rose, 1987
Not intending to mock your quote at all as it is spot on. These just came to my mind given the now (I think) relatively rare first name you cite.
Just to note: Axel Munthe and his "The Story of San Michelle" is an interesting read if one wants to explore the psychological neurosis among the European upper classes in the earlier years of the 20th Century.
My tea leaves read, Erdogan does nothing temporarily.
The key is the Muslim Brotherhood connection.
We (the West) would welcome a new Ataturk, but we would settle for an accommodating Ottoman redux.
Also, I agree with you that Israel/Netanyahu do not want to administer Damascus.
Israel would suffer so for it.
Well, I only meant longer horizon.
Yes, but *any* Turkiye nation would have deep and long ties with Russia, for better or worse!
And how could the non-European crossroads-of-the-planet *not* be a "partner" with BRICS?
That said, I happen to agree that this will blow over, i.e. have little long-term effect *depending* on the nature of the new Syrian regime. I hope they are at least planning to open talks with all neighbors, including Israel.
I'm wondering how much sandbagging there has been, seeping into alternate news discourse with claims that the IDF is very tired out by the war in Gaza and Lebanon, is stretched militarily.
Financially, maybe there is a cash flow problem on the books, but off the books? How can the most powerful lobby in the US, with its interests neatly coinciding with US foreign policy, policy backed by the Federal Reserve, ever run out of cash to prosecute wars?
Cash is meaningless if you can't replace the equipment. China seems to be in the catbird seat.
US Army, Navy reduce dependence on China for ‘critical technology’
But the Air Force and other Pentagon agencies are using even more Chinese suppliers, a report finds.
https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2024/06/mixed-results-us-military-efforts-reduce-dependence-china/397368/
The US is heavily reliant on China and Russia for its ammo supply chain. Congress wants to fix that.
https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/06/08/the-us-is-heavily-reliant-on-china-and-russia-for-its-ammo-supply-chain-congress-wants-to-fix-that/
Does the US Military Have Enough Minerals for a Possible Conflict with China?: Estimating Shortfalls for Military Materials
https://nps.edu/web/eag/estimating-shortfalls-for-military-materials
Agree, but cash is good for bribes, up and down the chain of command.
It's sort of like Ukraine. When there is no one left to fight and there is no one who believes in the fight (at their personal expense) that isn't promising. Seems like it might be a precursor to our situation here in the "homeland."