Will The Winners Become Losers?
Little by little the chaos to come will emerge—unless common sense prevails. Even then, events to come will not be pretty. Yesterday evening naked capitalism featured a trenchant piece on Turkey’s role in Syria (and beyond), and a warning about exercising care about what you wish for. Before we get to that, some brief updates.
It seems that the American and Israeli idea of spreading freedom means something a bit different than in their home countries:
Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo
Syria's new Minister of Justice:
"We will implement Islamic law and prevent women judges from holding this position and they must hand over their cases to male judges."
Sharia law in the heretofore secular Syria? That should trigger millions upon millions of refugees. Obviously that won’t go down with the well armed Kurds—nor with the secular Turks next door, who remember Islamist terror from a few years ago. Recipe for civil war in Syria. Courtesy of bumbling Uncle Sam.
We knew this was coming, but Erdogan’s delay in responding to Israel’s aggressive push toward Damascus suggests that Erdogan was caught a bit flat footed:
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has accused Israel of undermining the prospects of peace in Syria. He also called on all parties in the war-torn nation to ensure ethnic and religious cohesion.
What does this bode from Turkey for the 1/3 of Syrians who are not numbered among Arabs or Muslims? She calls Syrians “brothers and sisters”. Brothers and sisters of what segment of Turkey’s demographics?
US Rushes To Contain Turkey-Backed Offensive Against Its SDF Proxy In Syria
So, the two biggest NATO militaries on opposite sides? Why not? But there’s more:
Washington was reportedly caught off guard by the rapid overthrow of Assad by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-aligned forces, which occurred in just 11 days. Reports suggest that US officials had been attempting to negotiate a deal with Assad that would have normalized his position in exchange for severing ties with Hezbollah and Iran.
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Israeli public broadcaster Kann last week revealed that the first official talks between Tel Aviv and the SDF leadership took place earlier this month. This development has raised eyebrows, as senior Israeli officials have begun adopting rhetoric supportive of the Syrian Kurdish group.
Meanwhile, US Central Command (Centcom) Commander General Michael Kurilla visited northeastern Syria on Tuesday, reiterating US support for the SDF as an anti-IS partner force.
Peace breaking out? Don’t count on that.
So with that we turn to:
The article begins with an impressionistic account of the celebratory mood in Turkey over what Turks—especially those who hero worship Erdogan—regard as a big victory for Turkey in Syria. A victory in the name of Turkish Exceptionalism, which the author likens to American Exceptionalism and Zionism. Or, you could call it Ottoman Revanchism. It all works. But the author goes on to point to the flies in the Ottoman ointment—Turkish Exceptionalists may be no more discerning of the consequences of their actions than American Exceptionalists or Zionists have proven to be. Erdogan apparently thought his support for HTS would find a natural limit near the Turkish border, but instead a major part of the erstwhile Syrian state has landed in his lap, placing Turkey in close quarter combat with US and Israeli proxies (the Kurds in Syria) and possibly even with the sponsors themselves. Dare he back down now, when the Turkish public is looking forward to an Ottoman renaissance?
There’s a belief that all the refugees will be returned. The Kurds will be defeated once and for all, and Turkish President Recep Erdogan will rule Syria through proxy. It’s hard to see how any of that happens, however. As Moon of Alabama pointed out:
Türkiye had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Türkiye as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Türkiye may want to do.
Actually, it appears for now that the US is attacking HTS and supporting the Kurds, who control the oil producing and wheat growing areas of Syria. But Israel and the new sharia law regime seem to be getting along swimmingly—not so much Israel and Turkey.
A primary target for Türkiye are the Kurdish insurgents within Türkiye and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan’s SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
The Turkish economy, while not on Syrian levels, is in no shape to prop up a rump Syria. The country was seeing decades-long highs in inflation of 80-plus percent in recent years as Erdogan insisted on keeping low interest rates. It was in such bad shape that Seymour Hersh reported that Biden promised to lean on the IMF for an $11-13 billion line of credit to Türkiye in exchange for Ankara’s vote to allow Sweden into NATO. While the IMF loan didn’t come to pass, Erdogan reversed course on interest rates and inflation is down but still high (47 percent in November). The country is also now in recession.
At the same time, it’s more than likely the refugee problem gets even worse. Türkiye currently hosts upwards of 3 million Syrians, and while Ankara is hurriedly pushing them back into Syria and the media expresses concern that the loss of low-paid refugees will hurt the economy, that seems short-sighted.
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Nonetheless, wishful thinking abounds in Türkiye.
The article continues with a detailed account of Turkey’s ambitions to build up its own defense industry, as well as more on Turkish Exceptionalism and its Kurdish obsession. Or should I say, as the Turks do, their Mountain Turks obsession? Shades of Zionists claiming that Palestinians don’t exist. The bottom line of this section is:
In the meantime we have a situation where an increasingly militarist government in Türkiye is desperate to project Turkish power but is simultaneously eager to get out from under sanctions holding back its defense industry.
Indulging in regime change via terrorist proxies, triggering another flood of refugees—none of that looks like a way forward toward ending sanctions. But Turkish Exceptionalism can’t seem to help itself. Zionist exceptionalism, of course, is in a total other category, immune to sanctions.
All that is interesting, but then the article moves on to how this will go down with other important players. Having probably angered the US, how will Russia, China, India, and the rest of BRICS respond to Erdogan’s compulsive lying and back stabbing? Probably not too well.
In some ways Türkiye, which is likely to be banished from future Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS developments (more on that below), is even more incentivized to push forward with expansionary aims in order to make itself an indispensable partner in the region — one that China and Russia are forced to continue to work with despite Turkish duplicitousness.
There’s a lot of talk that Türkiye wanted to do this while still having leverage over Russia, i.e., the Ukraine conflict still going on. The one big question is if — and this is an enormous if — the Trump administration can come to some agreement with Russia on Ukraine and the US overall belligerent policy towards Russia that extends from the Baltic and the Arctic to the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, Turkey would become less important. Are it and the US neocons done trying to reshape the board before Trump comes into office?
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I think the question is where else do Turkish and US-Israel interests align. What Syria makes clear is that Türkiye’s imperialistic ambitions fit just fine with Washington — as long as it can be molded to fit US-Israel objectives as well:
That is a very big IF, er, AS LONG AS. There’s no question but that some of Turkey’s ambitions align extremely well with Neocon ideas—Pan-Turkism is anathema to both Iran and Russia, the Neocon bogeymen. Syria would seem to be an unnecessary complication of that agenda, but it happens to play into certain Turkish Exceptionalist/Ottoman Revanchist obsessions. Still:
While differences remain on the Kurdish question, and Greater Israel and Greater Türkiye could be on a collision course, there’s still one area where the US, Israel, and Türkiye all see eye to eye.
Pan-Turkism and Weakening Iran
This is what Turkey hopes to set up with its Greater Turkey:
This scheme obviously steps all over Russian and Iranian toes—and also Chinese toes. While this Central Asian initiative—which I’ve termed a “southern front” against Russia—is a key part of Neocon schemes, the US and Israeli military are not in a position to back Turkey up at this point. Chaotic enough yet?
And so the author concludes by questioning whether this is a war that Erdogan can win, despite what’s being portrayed as a Turkish battle won in Syria. There will be more to come:
Common wisdom is that Erdogan is the big winner in the toppling of the Assad government. Türkiye could also end up being the biggest loser long-term.
It could be swamped with more refugees. As the Syrian extremists are no longer united by the goal of deposing Assad and are faced with the impossible task of governing, prolonged power struggles are likely, which will force Türkiye to back a faction thereby making new enemies. . And it’s entirely possible — if not likely — that the fight comes to Türkiye and we see a return to the terrorist attacks that plagued the country in the mid-2010s. There’s also tension brewing at home over Türkiye’s ongoing poorly disguised support for Israel, which maybe Syria helps paper over a time, but is unlikely to go away.
It’s unclear what economic benefits this “victory” has for Türkiye. The Financial Times opined that “Türkiye, already struggling with high inflation and recession, would benefit from resuming full business and trade ties along the 900km Syrian-Turkish border. Its construction sector, which has close links to Erdoğan, could cash in on a rebuilding bill expected to run to hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Hard to see how that happens unless the country magically finds peace and security. It’s much more likely this all ends up blowing up in Türkiye’s face. I noted the similarities between American and Turkish exceptionalism. One major difference is that the US can make a mess and retreat to its home between two oceans. Syria shares a border with Türkiye, and the US has likely destabilized not just Syria but Türkiye as well with its support for the Turkish-led operation to topple Assad.
Ankara could end up missing Assad, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah and their stabilizing presence.
Unlike the euphoria following the 2015 shoot down of the Russian fighter jet, there won’t be any putting the toothpaste back in the tube this time following the inevitable come-down from the recent high.
At the same time, Türkiye has burned some serious bridges with Beijing and Moscow. The powers that are strengthening in the New Cold War (China, Russia, and even India) will not look kindly on a Türkiye willing to use extremist proxies to pursue its goals. They’ll look even less kindly on it after Turkish officials spent recent months lying to their faces. …
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Now the Turks obviously … think they’re solely on the side of Türkiye and pursuing Turkish interests. But Russia, China, and the Global South will view it as a major betrayal. That’s because Türkiye didn’t just happen to have overlapping interests with the US-Israel in this case, but it spat in the face of what the BRICS and SCO stand for by relying on extremist mercenaries, violating sovereignty and agreements, and in retrospect it’s clear that Turkish officials were lying to the faces of their Russian and Chinese counterparts. You can read here what Erdogan and Turkish officials were telling the Russians and Chinese at the summer SCO summit, which coincidentally had a focus on settling the Syrian issue and bringing Türkiye into the operation to secure the Asian “heartland” from Western meddling and regime change operations.
Will China and Russia continue to work with Türkiye when necessary? Türkiye is counting on it as it relies on Russia for most of its gas and oil and is courting Chinese investment to serve as a backdoor into the EU customs union. But Turkey is now viewed as a problem that must be dealt with, not a country that can be enticed by economic carrots and appeals to mutual self-interest. It is an enemy to the project of Eurasian integration and SCO defense against imperialism.
And should Türkiye’s reliance on jihadists, Nazis, and Zionists blow up in its face, it will get very little sympathy from China, Russia, the BRICS, or SCO — nor for that matter will the West shed a tear.
The Neocons are kicking over every hornet’s nest in sight in preparation for Trump 2.0. Trump will need to be a bit more deft than he has appeared to be during this transition—taunting Putin was a bad move. This is a time when experienced diplomatic advice might pay off. We’ll have to see if this next move works any better:
The invite came in November—perhaps before Trump was aware of the big Chinese hack:
The offer was made in early November, shortly after Trump’s election victory, multiple sources told the media outlet. It remains unclear whether Xi has accepted.
In a recent NBC News interview, Trump said he “got along very well” with Xi and that they had communicated the previous week.
But that’s standard Trumpian rhetoric, which doesn’t tell us much, if anything, about Xi’s attitude.
…, State Department records since 1874 indicate that no foreign leader has ever attended a transfer-of-power ceremony.
‘No winners’: China’s Xi warns US against a trade war
The apparent olive branch to China comes despite Trump’s incoming administration featuring several hawks on Beijing, including Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state.
The president-elect has vowed to hit the country with an “additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” unless it takes action against the trafficking of fentanyl, a major contributor to the opioid crisis.
During his campaign he threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports from China.
Belt yourselves in. This could be a rocky period coming up.
"Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?" - Axel Oxenstierna 1612–1654
Is Russia the real winner?