Whole Lotta Sabers Being Rattled

As noted yesterday, Trump’s threats against Iran have reached a new high. In addition to the usual threats of war (based on the false premise that Iran is preparing a nuke), Trump has been evacuating “non-essential” personnel from the region surrounding Iran and relocating military assets. He has held meetings with his top level of war officials—DoD and Intel (with Tulsi notably absent). The obvious message is that America is seriously preparing for war. Either that, or America is taking precautions in the event that Israel attempts an attack on Iran and Iran retaliates against the responsible party—the USA. Larry Johnson puts this in short form this morning (or whatever the time was when he wrote from Dubai):

Donald Trump apparently has decided to attack Iran. Mark this date. It is the beginning of the end of the Trump Presidency. Trump has been persuaded that the Iranian air defense is weak and that a US bombing run will eliminate any chance that Iran can build a nuclear device. He has been a victim of lies. He will shortly discover, if these attacks take place, that Iran retains a significant capability to shoot down US aircraft. In fact, I fully expect Iran will capture and put on display several US air force officers in the next week.

If Trump launches this attack, Iran will retaliate against US bases and Israel. Israel, for the first time in 77 years, will suffer devastating losses. If Trump thought the Houthis were a tough customer, he’s going to learn a hard lesson with Iran.

Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the US will destroy critical infrastructure in Iran and Iran will not be able to respond. I do not think that is likely. If the US carries out these strikes, this will create significant problems with Putin and likely derail efforts to normalize relations. China also will react strongly to any US attack on Iran.

Hold that concluding thought.

The alternative limb that I went out on yesterday is that this is all a major, highly choreographed, bluff to coerce Iran into a bad deal. All indications coming out of Iran are that Iran will not fall for a bluff, will stick to the position that it has consistently held to. Yesterday Trump was saying there wasn’t much point in another meeting with Iran. Today I read, FWIW, that the scheduled Sunday meeting will take place. Was all this saber rattling a buildup to this meeting? We’ll soon know.

There’s no need to go over the economic consequences of a war on Iran—the Persian Gulf and most of the surrounding seas will be shut down. Energy supplies to the world will be drastically curtailed. Of course, countries on good terms with Russia will have no problems. Most of the world will have BIG problems.

In other words, just as LJ stated it, this war would be the start of a world war. So let’s go back to that concluding thought about Russia and China, because there’s big news out there. And it would be foolish to think that any major moves by Russia and China are unrelated to anything Trump—or whoever pulls his strings—is doing. The lack of public linkage of the issues doesn’t matter.

First, Russia. Recall the Russia “draft treaties” that preceded the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Russia demanded that NATO pull back to pre-expansion, pre-Clinton, parameters. Out of Eastern Europe, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden. Yesterday a high level Russian official, Sergei Ryabkov, deputy foreign minister, revived that idea publicly. Nota bene, Ryabkov is responsible for U.S. relations, nonproliferation and arms control.

Russia Won't End Ukraine War Until NATO Scales Back Eastern Flank: Moscow

The Ukraine war won't end until NATO reduces its military footprint in Eastern Europe, a senior Russian official has said.

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, who is responsible for U.S. relations, nonproliferation and arms control, made the remarks in an interview with state-run news agency Tass.

…

Why It Matters

Ryabkov's comments indicate that Moscow wants the conflict's resolution to involve other nations, potentially including the easternmost members of the bloc. He suggested that the conflict's roots lie not only in Ukraine itself but in NATO's eastward expansion. According to Ryabkov, the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe would help bring an end to the war.

In that context, does this ring any bells?

Peacemaker @peacemaket71

 Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country had received nuclear defense guarantees from France:

"I am very proud that we have completed the work and signed the treaty with France. For the first time, we have an obligation from a major nuclear power to fully defend us against attack. We are completing similar work on the treaty with Britain."

That didn’t work out well for Poles the last time around, did it?

The point is, if Trump starts a major Middle East war, Russia could overrun the Baltics in about a day. Finland might take a few more days. Those Oreshniks could visit US bases in Europe.

China? Obviously a major Middle East war would be the perfect scenario for China to resolve its Taiwan issue. And in that regard …

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

Yesterday might have been the most consequential day for Taiwan in years, yet - as often - literally no Western media covered it (I checked, only Taiwanese media did).

There are many ways to wage war but the best way, or so the Chinese doctrine famously goes, is to conquer the enemy's strategy, not their army. Or, put another way, to win without fighting.

Imagine for the sake of argument that you're a president and your intelligence chief walks into your office to inform you that, for the better part of the past decade, your government’s top national security advisors, even your top aide, have been feeding your adversary every classified briefing, every military plan, every diplomatic strategy.

Every “secret” weapon, every tactical advantage, every backup plan, your every thoughts - they knew it all in real time.

How would you feel in that moment? You'd surely feel betrayed, but more than that - completely outmaneuvered before the game even began, utterly exposed and defenseless. Right?

Well, that's exactly what just happened in Taiwan. This isn't a hypothetical scenario - it's literally yesterday's news from Taipei (https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009…)

What happened?

Four former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) members were indicted on June 10, 2025 for espionage on behalf of the PRC: Huang Chu-jung (黄取荣), Chiu Shih-yuan (邱世元), Ho Jen-chi (何仁杰), and Wu Shang-yu (吴尚雨).

As a reminder the DPP is the “anti-China“ party in Taiwan, the pro-independence party that’s been in power continuously since 2016.

These people weren't just ordinary party members:

- Wu Shang-yu was one of president Lai Ching-te’s top aides

- Ho Jen-chieh was top aide to Joseph Wu when Wu served as foreign minister (Wu is now National Security Council Secretary-General)

- Chiu Shih-yuan is the former deputy head of the DPP's Taiwan Institute of Democracy, the DPP's own internal think tank

In other words, it's safe to assume that every major Taiwanese defense plan, every diplomatic initiative, every presidential movement, and every strategic assessment has been an open book to Beijing for the better part of a decade.

Sure, it’s possible that this is itself a psyop, that these people are in fact all innocent and that the DPP is waging a paranoid witch hunt.

But even if that were the case, the outcome is virtually the same: China has effectively already won the psychological warfare.

How can Taiwan's military and political leadership ever again have confidence in their own security apparatus? The mere suspicion of such comprehensive penetration at the highest levels of government is enough to paralyze decision-making and destroy the trust essential for effective defense.

It also results in destroying the trust of Taiwan’s partners: seeing this as an American, you can only conclude that you must operate under the assumption that any exchange of classified materials, operational details, or strategic assessments with the government in Taiwan will be on Xi Jinping's desk before the meeting ends. It effectively neutralizes any meaningful defense cooperation.

In other words, the conclusion is devastating for Taiwan: China might have just achieved the ultimate expression of its own strategic doctrine - they have conquered Taiwan's strategy so completely that conquering by fighting becomes unnecessary.

And this isn’t the only immensely consequential recent news for Taiwan.

In fact, yesterday - decidedly quite the eventful day - there was an even more important revelation: China has effectively “broken” the so-called “First Island Chain“.

------------

Read the rest on my new Substack (link in next tweet)

11:27 PM · Jun 10, 2025

Here’s the news that Arnaud is teasing:

Two Chinese aircraft carriers conduct simultaneous drills in Pacific for first time

Perhaps not unconnected:

Ask yourselves: How crazy would Trump need to be to launch a world war—starting in the Middle East—in this overall geopolitical context? Pretty darn crazy. The saber rattling alone is plenty crazy. I’d like to say that Trump isn’t that crazy and that this is all bluff. OTOH, Doug Macgregor maintains that Trump tends to agree with the last person he talks with. From that perspective, the fact that Trump allows Mark Levin entree to the White House is deeply disturbing.

And this is all about Jewish Nationalist aspirations of the most extreme sort. Arnaud draws attention to a new alarm call from Tom Friedman:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

A rare time when I agree with Tom Friedman.

Whilst obviously the main victims here are the Palestinians, it's also painfully obvious that, as he puts it "the war in Gaza today is laying the groundwork for a fundamental recasting of how Israel and Jews will be seen the world over."

Israel, far from a safe haven from antisemitism, is now the "engine generating it" as Friedman writes.

…

You don’t have to agree with everything Friedman says to see the elements of truth in this. And, yet, Trump actually gives Mark Levin the time of day—specifically to listen to Levin’s insane war mongering re Iran. Nevertheless, we close with this:

Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW

Given the Iranians have now had the better part of a day to alert their forces, the Israelis have lost any element of surprise they may have had and with it any serious chances for success.

Almost like the Trump Administration is trying to scuttle Netanyahu's war plan!

Quote

Election Wizard @ElectionWiz

BREAKING: U.S. officials have been informed that Israel is fully prepared to initiate an operation against Iran. This situation is one of the reasons the U.S. has advised some Americans to evacuate the region.