Trump Heightens Drama Re Iran Deal
Trump is doing what he can to heighten the sense of drama surrounding his attempt to revive the JCPOA agreement with Iran. That’s the agreement that Trump, under pressure from Jewish Nationalist extremists, unilaterally walked out of in 2018—despite Iran’s complete compliance with the terms of the agreement. That action led to unilaterally walked out of in 2018. I say that Trump is trying to revive the JCPOA because Iran has been explicit that the only deal it will accept now would be something essentially the same as JCPOA. Trump himself, while accusing Iran of “slow walking” negotiations, has been all over the map—on one day he’ll signal agreement to Iran’s position on enrichment, the next day he’ll buckle to Jewish Nationalist extremists and walk that back.
What’s new currently is that Iran has apparently, through its intel services, obtained crucial details of Israel’s own nuclear weapons program. We covered that yesterday, quoting Scott Ritter: Iran Intel Coup.
Scott Ritter on the Iranian intel coup
Judge: What is the significance of the claim by Iranian officials that they have secret files on Israeli nuclear capabilities?
Ritter: I don't speak Farsi, but the people who do speak Farsi--when they read the original there's some interpretation. Did the Iranians get the Israeli targeting of Iran's nuclear program, or did they get a specific layout of Israel's nuclear program, or both? But the bottom line is, it shows that Iran has penetrated Israel's security mechanism. They've gained access to data that strengthens its hand in any potential conflict. The interesting thing is, almost immediately after this breach took place, Netanyahu contacted Trump and said, 'Yeah, we're no longer talking about attacking Iran. We'll accept that 3.75% enriched uranium thing.' Remember, Israel said, 'Never, never, never! We will never ...!'
...
The caveat is 'temporarily', and of course the Iranians will do it. But Israel's in a panic right now, because either way--let's say Iran got hold of the target deck. That means that Iran right now is shifting resources, and whatever the Israelis thought they were going to bomb they aren't going to bomb. But if Iran has Israel's nuclear [garbled], that means they can now bring in precision strikes and take out Israel. Israel's in a bind and they desperately need these negotiations to work. My understanding is that Netanyahu has indicated that he is now amicable to a 'temporary' continuation of the Iranian nuclear program, limited to 3.75%. Why? Because Israel knows that if it wants to go to war against Iran it's going to be taken off the face of the earth.
This intel coup explains Trump’s whine. First he spoke to Fox:
“Iran is acting much differently in negotiations than it did just days ago,” Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier. “Much more aggressive. It’s surprising to me. It’s disappointing, but we are set to meet again tomorrow – we’ll see.”
Senior administration officials also told Fox News that Iran appears to be dragging negotiations on without concrete progress while pushing forward with its nuclear efforts.
This comes as Israel is growing more concerned it will have to act unilaterally to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
And then:
President Trump tells @mirandadevine he doesn't think Iran wants to make a deal
“it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying…But I don’t think I see the same level of enthusiasm for them to make a deal. I think they would make a mistake" pic.twitter.com/aqAtPnsx8A
— Jim Hanson (@JimHansonDC) June 11, 2025
Where have we heard this before? Right. The usual song and dance, the broken record routine. This is why I think Trump is purposely seeking to raise the drama level before agreeing to whatever terms Iran will give him. However, Trump’s new act may reflect an underlying reality, which is that Iran’s intel coup gives Iran a new sense of confidence, as described by Ritter (above)—although, once again, there position hasn’t varied from one day to the next. The gyrations are all on the Trump side. Nor, for that matter, has Israel varied its position—they still want the US to go to war against Iran as Israel’s proxy.
Iran had its own response to Trump’s latest threats:
'All US Bases Within Our Reach': Iran Responds To Threats From Washington
Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said Wednesday that Tehran will strike US military bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and Washington decides to launch an attack on the Islamic Republic.
"Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don't come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us... all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries," Nasirzadeh said during a press conference, warning the US to "leave the region" in the "case of any conflict."
"We have made very good progress in defense affairs. Our operational forces are fully equipped," the defense minister added, revealing that Iran recently tested a missile with a two-ton warhead. "[If] a conflict is imposed on us, the casualties of the other party will definitely be much heavier than ours," he went on to say.
There is also a new development related to the Iran intel coup which may have hardened Iran’s views even further. It may have also led to Iran demanding an end to the double standard treatment it receives. Check this possible game changer out:
Iran Observer @IranObserver0
BREAKING
Iran now knows how Israel is getting the names of its nuclear scientists
Classified Israeli documents obtained by Iran's security apparatus show that IAEA (operated by UN) disclosed to Israel the names of Iranian nuclear scientists, who were later assassinated
7:57 AM · Jun 10, 2025
Meanwhile, Israel refuses to even allow IAEA inspectors into the country. Put yourself in Iran’s position. If this is true, why would Iran play along with that game?
As for Trump’s threats of war and Israel’s claims that it is prepared to take unilateral action—if Trump gives Israel permission—Simplicius quotes a source who explains why this is probably gaslighting for purposes of negotiations:
Iran Ups Ante as Israel Chafes for Face-Saving Escalation
One analyst states:
Grossi said: “I’ve been there multiple times. To reach it, one must go deep, then deeper, and deeper still. Iran’s nuclear program cannot be destroyed by an attack.”
He’s right. The world’s most powerful bunker-buster, the GBU-57, can only penetrate 66 meters, while even the latest nuclear bomb can only impact up to 500 meters underground.
Iran has placed its IR-9 centrifuges on shock-absorber systems, capable of withstanding 6.0 Richter scale earthquakes. These sites lie deep within mountains.
Israel does not have the GBU-57; only the US does, and only B-2 bombers can carry them — 2 bombs per jet. To destroy just one Iranian site at 800m depth, the US would need to drop at least 12 bombs precisely at one spot — requiring 6 bombers per site.
Iran is believed to have at least 5 such deep nuclear sites. To destroy them all, the US would need to deploy 30 B-2 bombers, but it only has 18 total. Meaning, at least 2 Iranian sites will survive.
Moreover, Iran has not built straight shafts. After every 50 meters, tunnels twist hundreds of meters sideways before going down again — making pinpoint strikes nearly impossible. Even if the first bomb hits, the remaining 11 could hit empty ground.
In short, Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure is now too deep, too complex, and too protected to be taken out militarily
Thus:
Told @AJEnglish that the vacating of US embassies and moving US families out of the Middle East is more likely part of the choreography of pressure ahead of the next round of US-Iran talks, than a prelude to Israeli strikes. Israel does not have an independent military option.
Israel lacks an effective military option and war with Iran is the absolute last thing Trump needs right now. A perfectly OK deal is readily available. All Trump needs to do is take it. The problem that Doug Macgregor sees is that he regards Trump as fundamentally weak, unable to withstand the concerted pressure he’s being subjected to by Jewish Nationalist extremists. For my part, I’m somewhat more sanguine. While Trump’s NatSec team isn’t perfect, he is getting better support than during Trump 1.0—for example, while Veep Vance may not be perfect, once you think back to Mike Pence ... Trump also does have more experience behind him:
Inside the MAGA vs. hawk battle to sway Trump on bombing Iran
Trump allies are trying to counter a private pressure campaign to ditch Steve Witkoff’s diplomatic effort and join Israel in attacking Tehran.
Still, indications of Trump’s weakness are concerning:
Trump Pressed Netanyahu To 'Permanently End Gaza War' In Phone Call
Israeli media has revealed that in a Monday phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump told the Israeli leader that he must permanently end the war in Gaza.
Trump is said to have conveyed that the conflict should end "the sooner the better"; however, there's been no indication that Trump is willing to use the major leverage he has of cutting off US military aid to enforce this.
More background:
Past Broken Promises Make No Uranium Enrichment a Deal Breaker for Iran
It is not necessary to have zero enrichment to have confidence that Iran is not diverting materials to build a bomb
After reading both Mark's and Larry Johnson's posts before midnight, a song is playing in my mind.
It was recorded by Edwin Starr 55 years ago.
War,
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
(War) it ain't nothing but a heart-breaker
(War) friend only to the undertaker
Oh, war it's an enemy to all mankind
The point of war blows my mind
War can't give life It can only take it away
Here is a live performance in 2001--he sounds just as good at the age of 59 as he did at 28.
https://youtu.be/GqooTCWdyPg?si=Hkn1BxiMYIx6Vbhx
What is also very concerning is that Netanyahu's grip on power is slipping with the possibility of the Haredi orthodox part of his alliance threatening to walk out. That makes him even more desperate. He's like Zelenski: as soon as he's out of power, he's heading for a prison cell or worse.