This is the kind of report the intellectual elite of a country whose collective mind has been corrupted by decades of Russophobia produces. It is so out of touch with reality that it approaches farcical proportions. It is, thus, quintessentially American.
I thought it was always better to negotiate from a position of strength. Ukies appear to be on the back foot so...maybe Blinken out to spend some time in a Bakhmut trench and get a feel for how things are going.
Why would the Russians agree anything with the US when they’ve admitted that the Minsk Agreement, which was meant to bring peace to Ukraine in 2014, was negotiated in bad faith and neither Ukraine nor any of the western powers had any intention of honouring it? The US provoked this war which they’ve wanted for a long time. Russia may as well finish the fight and secure its future or it will just have to fight another war all over again in a few years.
After watching Nuland brag about the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, I'm surprised Germany doesn't leave NATO and reconstitute the Warsaw Pact. Russia might, given enough incentives, provide air transportation for Americans trying to escape Ukriane.
"On its face that’s a total non-starter from the Russian standpoint, but is it an opening gambit? An invitation to Russia to make a counteroffer? Interestingly, Nuland claimed that she and Blinken are on the same page. And yet an article on Wednesday in the WaPo—presumably written by David Ignatius at Blinken’s direction—seems to hint at more flexibility."
I would be cautious about taking anything these people say at face value. For one thing, given that the President's brains are leaking out his ears, no one is really in charge. What Nuland says has nothing do, really, with what policy is. And if, hypothetically, the Russians decided to open negotiations for ending the war, that's a practical problem they'd have to deal with.
Remember that these people never intended to be in a long conventional war. They conducted a panicked evacuation of the Kiev embassy before the war began and offered to fly Zelensky to safety. (Leading to the famous "I need ammunition, not a ride." These days the ammo is running low and the ride may soon start looking better, but that is neither here nor there.) The point is, they thought Ukraine would fall quickly. (And so did Putin!) What this implies to me is that they made promises to Ukraine that they never had any intention of keeping. They wrote a blank check that they thought would never get cashed.
What this means is that they are dealing with the unintended consequences of mistakes made long ago, not executing some grand design. Truth be told, if Putin took them up on an offer of negotiations, they might not even know what to negotiate for. Nuland isn't making some well thought out offer of negotiations, she's just doing what they've been doing since day one and hoping something will turn up.
"Remember that these people never intended to be in a long conventional war." Who are "these people"? There are undoubtedly people who want perpetual war. Winning is not necessarily the objective.
For starters, refer the pre-Ukrane war Austin Fitts and Skidmore's expose of missing millions from the DOD and FASAB Standard 56 / dark USG accounting. Now imagine the steal, post war.
"These people" are the people around Biden who obviously expected a swift Russian victory. I think the plan, to the extent that there was one, was to fly Zelensky out and supply the Ukrainian resistance with a few Stingers, AKs, and what have you. They would then have run around blowing stuff up and yelling "Wolverines!". If you're going to have a perpetual war, then you want it to be costly for the other side, not for you, so arming and funding some guerillas would, from their perspective, make sense. Had they intended a year long conventional war, or even thought such possible, then they need not have offered to fly Zelensky out.
The trap that the Biden people are now caught in is one described by A J P Taylor in The Struggle for Mastery in Europe. When one power is completely dependent on another for its very existence, it is the dependent power that calls the shots. It can threaten to collapse if it is not supported and the supporting power has no answering threat. Having taken the Ukrainians on as dependent clients in what turned out to be a long conventional war, they are now stuck frantically trying to beg, borrow, or buy, (Because we cannot produce!) enough weapons and supplies to keep them afloat.
You're right that they wanted a forever war, just not the one that they got. This is not the war that Gotham wanted, it's the war that Gotham stuck itself with by completely misreading the situation.
Yup - very well put. In other words, let’s head for the exit before this quagmire (of our own making) turns into Vietnam or Afghanistan…absolutely striking all the focus on Ukraine this, Ukraine that, trenches to tanks, failure upon failure to take Russia seriously. Blinken and co…very scary!
It’s truly amazing to comprehend the colossal amount of ignorance, stupidity and plain ol’ garden variety incompetence that has been displayed since this fools errand began. “Yeh, we’ll have Russia on its economic deathbed in a couple of months and Putin will be history”! “Why this thing will be over so fast it’ll make your head spin”!
It doesn’t take a genius to look at the real facts about how things have played out to realize that every estimate they made was wrong and, like three day old fish, it isn’t getting better with age.
Do they suppose that the Russian’s are stupid enough to believe anything that comes out of DC? What possible motivation do they have to negotiate. Oh, sorry, I forgot about the “make believe” weakening of the Russian military that the Rand study talked about in their insightful report. I suspect that Putin knows beyond any doubt that time is on his side.
What’s the old military adage about not bothering to waste energy destroying your enemies when they are doing a good job of destroying themselves without any outside help.
Speaking of arrogance, can we just drop Blinken and Nuland off in Moscow and tell them we'll schedule a pick-up when they've negotiated a settlement to this fiasco of their creation.
They're so brilliant, I'm sure they'll get it all figured out.
And speaking of ignorance, stupidity, incompetence...and arrogance and dishonesty: what do you do when your country is led by ignorant, stupid, incompetent, arrogant and dishonest men and women? Perhaps rhetorical.
Normally, rhetoric sucks. If it were only so here. While Ukraine is the Post's topic, your question applies across the spectrum for our country presently. What DO we do, being as how elections are rather suspect and as mentioned already, 81 million votes were tallied for Biden in 2020?
I'll remind you our 'left behind' value was a $1 billion dollar investment in Bagram Airfield PLUS around $10 Billion of military equipment. (The stuff like Blackhawks with the bodies hanging below, flyin' around while our 'evacuation' was ongoing).
Insult to injury, perhaps is the RNC returning a 3-time failed elections chair... person. It appears R or D, incompetence and failure are not measures included in leadership selection.
So, with little or no positive encouragement I leave you failing in one of my goals - that is encouragement. We are still around, and will fight another day. The battleground may be hard to see and the enemy not well defined but we must engage as best as opportunity avails for us to. Best to you! (WRH)
Very astute point... I confess clinging to a scripture sentiment carries me; "this is the day the Lord has made, I shall be rejoice and be glad in it". Guarantees are only for where we are in the present. I think a key is recognizing that the past is frozen, the future not yet done so remain in the present where worrying about the past or future simply changes nothing.
I hope your 'present day' blesses you Cassander! (WRH)
However, the fact remains that the low-/no-information American voter (you know, like each of the '81' million geniuses who 'voted' 'Joe Biden' into office...but they aren't the only ones) don't have a clue what y'all are talking about.
When the war simply becomes completely unsustainable (its already unsustainable) the 'interagency' will simply make up a reason (it can be almost any reason...and the NY Times and Wapo will broadcast it...as in, you know, "three senior US officials said") to withdraw and leave the smoldering carcass of the Ukraine that they have instigated to whatever future Fate has in store for it.
It is a feature of our 'democracy' that our elites don't have to ever honestly explain their actions. They will just do what they do and lie about why.
Does anybody truly understand why we picked up and left Afghanistan without a billion or so dollars worth of our weapons and equipment? No. Did they ever honestly explain why? No. They just did it and that's what they'll do in Ukraine. They'll just do it.
I think one thing they really can’t hide and don’t want to explain are body bags being unloaded at Andrew’s AFB. They can’t send tanks and related supplies and equipment without U S troops no matter how many Ukrainians they claim they are going to bring here for training. Think viet nam. Escalation will occur. Soldiers will die. Body bags will fill up.
G'day RaySC, Mark left a comment that his wife had heard it'd take a year to properly get US tanks operating in Ukraine. I'd note Poland wants updated stuff, maybe even M-1s, and even latest German version equipment. I'd simply say training is one thing, logistics support another. Ukraine doesn't have the fuel supply capability a Battalion of M-1s would need. I think I heard someone note they'd make good, in-place battlefield guns. Their targeting, rate of fire, range and kill capability shine when they're moving. Early tests (when I had some access, long ago) showed successful engagement at 45MPH at multiple targets, also moving. However, stationary they're simply going to be a hole where a few million bucks once was. Even during movement, their heat signature and modern targeting/ammunition from a real enemy, that is Russia, leave them rather vulnerable. Untrained operators make them, forgive me for saying this, sitting ducks.
I'll still go with our M1s won't get out of Poland. Any that are shipped will be destroyed before they get into battle. They are great weapons, but require a broader-approach combat force to be effective. (Like air-superiority to keep those pesky enemy munitions away). Take care sir! (WRH)
We're seeing dems continue pursuing their mad belief it's about 'show'. The entire Biden debacle, 'er I mean presidency depicts that. Afghanistan was successfully exited! Yes, exit successful, consequences beyond belief and our MSM made 'em look like hero's. (Do you recall those Blackhawks flyin' around during our 'exit' from Afghanistan... with the bodies hanging from them?) Weren't we heroic! Thousands of US supporting Afghani's left behind. Un.Believe.Able...
I will STILL stand by my belief modern tanks will be in Poland and their marginal junk in heaps in Ukraine. Why waste brand new M1's on there? The american tanks have to be brand new-others in service have Depleted Uranium armor which is Secret-Sauce stuff and not removable to send to Ukraine. So, at about 10Mil a-piece Poland, I mean Ukraine gets 31 MBTs and a few tank wreckers. Those, BTW, are probably the best choice of it all since Ukraine (and Poland, for that matter) can't/won't be able to keep our stuff operating. If not killed they'll be broken down.
Quick note: in the original version of the M88, based on the M1 frame, it utilized a Gas version of the motor: @ 1000 Hp it was quite an awesome wrecker, don't you think? My very best to you! (WRH)
That's more or less what I believe--Poland will never be able to afford the maintenance on all the super expensive equipment they're getting. Not unless the US pays for all that. That won't last, and Poland will have a heap of scrap to show for it all--after pissing not only Russia but much of Europe and destroying much of their own economy in pursuing Neocon dreams of empire. Plus, they'll have a huge and unwanted Ukrainian minority. If there are permanent US bases in Poland, those will ultimately become unpopular.
You are spot on! It doesn’t have to make sense, it doesn’t have to be honorable, it doesn’t to serve any ongoing purpose of any kind, it’s headed into the porcelain waste disposal device so they’ll just say, “screw it” and move on without skipping a beat!
Afghanistan was a mess for the history books and not a word of explanation.
Yup. They have discovered they can retain power regardless of what they do or say as long as they can 'win' the election. It doesn't matter whether Chuck Schumer wins or Lindsey Graham wins. 'They've' won.
While reading all of this, I cannot shake the image in my mind's eye of the Afgan "withdrawl" in all of it's ugliness. I believe they are doing it again. Only this time the people falling off of the transport plane are Ukrainians and NATO Western Leaders failing to hold on for evacuation. I only feel sorry for the Uke People who have -and will pay a heavy price......the others not so much. I long for this Country to get back to the roots that made it a great contributor on the World Stage. Alas, how to get there is a story for another day.
Thanks for a necessary reminder, Rob. An absolute ugly stain (< understatement alert! Beyond comprehension? Sad and inexcusable).
I'll disagree with you on one thing... How to get there should be front and center to 'we the people' in this country. Although most citizens, subject to MSM (etc.) don't even know just how far astray we really are. My best to you, Sir! (WRH)
Russia will extract very heavy conditions to get to the negotiation table. They know they've won, were prodded into this war and will be in total control of huge Ukraine land mass by the time the fighting is over. Ukraine will be landlocked rump state with Odessa lost.
Russia will demand unconditional surrender including removal of all sanctions prior to negotiations beginning. Reimbursement for all confiscated property, remainder of Ukraine neutrality under Russia friendly constitution/government. NORD2 repair by Nato. Nato collapse will likely result.
US dollar as worldwide currency (petro $$) will also end.
Can't imagine a "demilitarized" Crimea, given the snowball's chance Russia would ever cede their Sevastopol base. Maybe convert it into a "mostly-peaceful" naval base? 😉
The US agrees Russia can keep what they have, till we have enough time to rebuild the Ukrainian Army a 4th time, this time to be maneuver based, and the West May loosen some sanction.
Maybe Odessa wasn't part of the original SMO plans, but I'm sure it is now. The Russians would be insane to leave Ukraine sea access. If they do, how long will it be before arms shipments are being sneaked in again. Taking Odessa also makes it easier for the Russians to keep an eye on Moldova.
It has to be one of the greatest diplomatic and strategic failures of all times. After 1991, we could have built lasting relations with the Russians and kept them out of China's arms. Yet we blew it - and we blew it deliberately. Neocons should hang for this.
Jeffrey Sachs thoughts on getting to peace in Ukraine.
https://youtu.be/zFaMVZzueEU
Commenting re Rand Report:
Scott Ritter
@RealScottRitter
This is the kind of report the intellectual elite of a country whose collective mind has been corrupted by decades of Russophobia produces. It is so out of touch with reality that it approaches farcical proportions. It is, thus, quintessentially American.
I thought it was always better to negotiate from a position of strength. Ukies appear to be on the back foot so...maybe Blinken out to spend some time in a Bakhmut trench and get a feel for how things are going.
Russia will do its negotiations on the battlefield.
Why would the Russians agree anything with the US when they’ve admitted that the Minsk Agreement, which was meant to bring peace to Ukraine in 2014, was negotiated in bad faith and neither Ukraine nor any of the western powers had any intention of honouring it? The US provoked this war which they’ve wanted for a long time. Russia may as well finish the fight and secure its future or it will just have to fight another war all over again in a few years.
After watching Nuland brag about the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, I'm surprised Germany doesn't leave NATO and reconstitute the Warsaw Pact. Russia might, given enough incentives, provide air transportation for Americans trying to escape Ukriane.
"On its face that’s a total non-starter from the Russian standpoint, but is it an opening gambit? An invitation to Russia to make a counteroffer? Interestingly, Nuland claimed that she and Blinken are on the same page. And yet an article on Wednesday in the WaPo—presumably written by David Ignatius at Blinken’s direction—seems to hint at more flexibility."
I would be cautious about taking anything these people say at face value. For one thing, given that the President's brains are leaking out his ears, no one is really in charge. What Nuland says has nothing do, really, with what policy is. And if, hypothetically, the Russians decided to open negotiations for ending the war, that's a practical problem they'd have to deal with.
Remember that these people never intended to be in a long conventional war. They conducted a panicked evacuation of the Kiev embassy before the war began and offered to fly Zelensky to safety. (Leading to the famous "I need ammunition, not a ride." These days the ammo is running low and the ride may soon start looking better, but that is neither here nor there.) The point is, they thought Ukraine would fall quickly. (And so did Putin!) What this implies to me is that they made promises to Ukraine that they never had any intention of keeping. They wrote a blank check that they thought would never get cashed.
What this means is that they are dealing with the unintended consequences of mistakes made long ago, not executing some grand design. Truth be told, if Putin took them up on an offer of negotiations, they might not even know what to negotiate for. Nuland isn't making some well thought out offer of negotiations, she's just doing what they've been doing since day one and hoping something will turn up.
"Remember that these people never intended to be in a long conventional war." Who are "these people"? There are undoubtedly people who want perpetual war. Winning is not necessarily the objective.
For starters, refer the pre-Ukrane war Austin Fitts and Skidmore's expose of missing millions from the DOD and FASAB Standard 56 / dark USG accounting. Now imagine the steal, post war.
"These people" are the people around Biden who obviously expected a swift Russian victory. I think the plan, to the extent that there was one, was to fly Zelensky out and supply the Ukrainian resistance with a few Stingers, AKs, and what have you. They would then have run around blowing stuff up and yelling "Wolverines!". If you're going to have a perpetual war, then you want it to be costly for the other side, not for you, so arming and funding some guerillas would, from their perspective, make sense. Had they intended a year long conventional war, or even thought such possible, then they need not have offered to fly Zelensky out.
The trap that the Biden people are now caught in is one described by A J P Taylor in The Struggle for Mastery in Europe. When one power is completely dependent on another for its very existence, it is the dependent power that calls the shots. It can threaten to collapse if it is not supported and the supporting power has no answering threat. Having taken the Ukrainians on as dependent clients in what turned out to be a long conventional war, they are now stuck frantically trying to beg, borrow, or buy, (Because we cannot produce!) enough weapons and supplies to keep them afloat.
You're right that they wanted a forever war, just not the one that they got. This is not the war that Gotham wanted, it's the war that Gotham stuck itself with by completely misreading the situation.
My first thought about Blinken and Nuland is that I am confident in their incompetence.
Yup - very well put. In other words, let’s head for the exit before this quagmire (of our own making) turns into Vietnam or Afghanistan…absolutely striking all the focus on Ukraine this, Ukraine that, trenches to tanks, failure upon failure to take Russia seriously. Blinken and co…very scary!
It’s truly amazing to comprehend the colossal amount of ignorance, stupidity and plain ol’ garden variety incompetence that has been displayed since this fools errand began. “Yeh, we’ll have Russia on its economic deathbed in a couple of months and Putin will be history”! “Why this thing will be over so fast it’ll make your head spin”!
It doesn’t take a genius to look at the real facts about how things have played out to realize that every estimate they made was wrong and, like three day old fish, it isn’t getting better with age.
Do they suppose that the Russian’s are stupid enough to believe anything that comes out of DC? What possible motivation do they have to negotiate. Oh, sorry, I forgot about the “make believe” weakening of the Russian military that the Rand study talked about in their insightful report. I suspect that Putin knows beyond any doubt that time is on his side.
What’s the old military adage about not bothering to waste energy destroying your enemies when they are doing a good job of destroying themselves without any outside help.
You mention "the colossal amount of ignorance, stupidity and plain ol’ garden variety incompetence..." Yes, absolutely.
But also the arrogance. Don't forget the stupendous arrogance of telling a nuclear-armed superpower to F-off in its own backyard.
And the dishonesty. They couldn't have done it without being lying sons of bitches.
Speaking of arrogance, can we just drop Blinken and Nuland off in Moscow and tell them we'll schedule a pick-up when they've negotiated a settlement to this fiasco of their creation.
They're so brilliant, I'm sure they'll get it all figured out.
And speaking of ignorance, stupidity, incompetence...and arrogance and dishonesty: what do you do when your country is led by ignorant, stupid, incompetent, arrogant and dishonest men and women? Perhaps rhetorical.
G'evening Cassander,
Normally, rhetoric sucks. If it were only so here. While Ukraine is the Post's topic, your question applies across the spectrum for our country presently. What DO we do, being as how elections are rather suspect and as mentioned already, 81 million votes were tallied for Biden in 2020?
I'll remind you our 'left behind' value was a $1 billion dollar investment in Bagram Airfield PLUS around $10 Billion of military equipment. (The stuff like Blackhawks with the bodies hanging below, flyin' around while our 'evacuation' was ongoing).
Insult to injury, perhaps is the RNC returning a 3-time failed elections chair... person. It appears R or D, incompetence and failure are not measures included in leadership selection.
So, with little or no positive encouragement I leave you failing in one of my goals - that is encouragement. We are still around, and will fight another day. The battleground may be hard to see and the enemy not well defined but we must engage as best as opportunity avails for us to. Best to you! (WRH)
If what you mean, WRH, is that we will fight another day, I hope you are right. On the other hand, getting from here to another day will be the test.
Very astute point... I confess clinging to a scripture sentiment carries me; "this is the day the Lord has made, I shall be rejoice and be glad in it". Guarantees are only for where we are in the present. I think a key is recognizing that the past is frozen, the future not yet done so remain in the present where worrying about the past or future simply changes nothing.
I hope your 'present day' blesses you Cassander! (WRH)
Brilliant analysis by all...
However, the fact remains that the low-/no-information American voter (you know, like each of the '81' million geniuses who 'voted' 'Joe Biden' into office...but they aren't the only ones) don't have a clue what y'all are talking about.
When the war simply becomes completely unsustainable (its already unsustainable) the 'interagency' will simply make up a reason (it can be almost any reason...and the NY Times and Wapo will broadcast it...as in, you know, "three senior US officials said") to withdraw and leave the smoldering carcass of the Ukraine that they have instigated to whatever future Fate has in store for it.
It is a feature of our 'democracy' that our elites don't have to ever honestly explain their actions. They will just do what they do and lie about why.
Does anybody truly understand why we picked up and left Afghanistan without a billion or so dollars worth of our weapons and equipment? No. Did they ever honestly explain why? No. They just did it and that's what they'll do in Ukraine. They'll just do it.
I think one thing they really can’t hide and don’t want to explain are body bags being unloaded at Andrew’s AFB. They can’t send tanks and related supplies and equipment without U S troops no matter how many Ukrainians they claim they are going to bring here for training. Think viet nam. Escalation will occur. Soldiers will die. Body bags will fill up.
Plausible Deniability:
- Deserter
- Training Accident
- use “ex” service trained private contractors
- use Europeans, non us, trained in us military equipment
I’m not sure if any non Westerners have the needed training on us military equipment/ technology for support.
G'day RaySC, Mark left a comment that his wife had heard it'd take a year to properly get US tanks operating in Ukraine. I'd note Poland wants updated stuff, maybe even M-1s, and even latest German version equipment. I'd simply say training is one thing, logistics support another. Ukraine doesn't have the fuel supply capability a Battalion of M-1s would need. I think I heard someone note they'd make good, in-place battlefield guns. Their targeting, rate of fire, range and kill capability shine when they're moving. Early tests (when I had some access, long ago) showed successful engagement at 45MPH at multiple targets, also moving. However, stationary they're simply going to be a hole where a few million bucks once was. Even during movement, their heat signature and modern targeting/ammunition from a real enemy, that is Russia, leave them rather vulnerable. Untrained operators make them, forgive me for saying this, sitting ducks.
I'll still go with our M1s won't get out of Poland. Any that are shipped will be destroyed before they get into battle. They are great weapons, but require a broader-approach combat force to be effective. (Like air-superiority to keep those pesky enemy munitions away). Take care sir! (WRH)
Agree. This quote comes to mind:
“Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics”
And the numbers being talked about are a joke. Canada donated 4 tanks! Us 31 tanks! Germany 14 tanks! Poland 14 leopards and 60 upgraded T-72’s.
We're seeing dems continue pursuing their mad belief it's about 'show'. The entire Biden debacle, 'er I mean presidency depicts that. Afghanistan was successfully exited! Yes, exit successful, consequences beyond belief and our MSM made 'em look like hero's. (Do you recall those Blackhawks flyin' around during our 'exit' from Afghanistan... with the bodies hanging from them?) Weren't we heroic! Thousands of US supporting Afghani's left behind. Un.Believe.Able...
I will STILL stand by my belief modern tanks will be in Poland and their marginal junk in heaps in Ukraine. Why waste brand new M1's on there? The american tanks have to be brand new-others in service have Depleted Uranium armor which is Secret-Sauce stuff and not removable to send to Ukraine. So, at about 10Mil a-piece Poland, I mean Ukraine gets 31 MBTs and a few tank wreckers. Those, BTW, are probably the best choice of it all since Ukraine (and Poland, for that matter) can't/won't be able to keep our stuff operating. If not killed they'll be broken down.
Quick note: in the original version of the M88, based on the M1 frame, it utilized a Gas version of the motor: @ 1000 Hp it was quite an awesome wrecker, don't you think? My very best to you! (WRH)
That's more or less what I believe--Poland will never be able to afford the maintenance on all the super expensive equipment they're getting. Not unless the US pays for all that. That won't last, and Poland will have a heap of scrap to show for it all--after pissing not only Russia but much of Europe and destroying much of their own economy in pursuing Neocon dreams of empire. Plus, they'll have a huge and unwanted Ukrainian minority. If there are permanent US bases in Poland, those will ultimately become unpopular.
You are spot on! It doesn’t have to make sense, it doesn’t have to be honorable, it doesn’t to serve any ongoing purpose of any kind, it’s headed into the porcelain waste disposal device so they’ll just say, “screw it” and move on without skipping a beat!
Afghanistan was a mess for the history books and not a word of explanation.
Yup. They have discovered they can retain power regardless of what they do or say as long as they can 'win' the election. It doesn't matter whether Chuck Schumer wins or Lindsey Graham wins. 'They've' won.
Until they lose.
While reading all of this, I cannot shake the image in my mind's eye of the Afgan "withdrawl" in all of it's ugliness. I believe they are doing it again. Only this time the people falling off of the transport plane are Ukrainians and NATO Western Leaders failing to hold on for evacuation. I only feel sorry for the Uke People who have -and will pay a heavy price......the others not so much. I long for this Country to get back to the roots that made it a great contributor on the World Stage. Alas, how to get there is a story for another day.
Thanks for a necessary reminder, Rob. An absolute ugly stain (< understatement alert! Beyond comprehension? Sad and inexcusable).
I'll disagree with you on one thing... How to get there should be front and center to 'we the people' in this country. Although most citizens, subject to MSM (etc.) don't even know just how far astray we really are. My best to you, Sir! (WRH)
Russia will extract very heavy conditions to get to the negotiation table. They know they've won, were prodded into this war and will be in total control of huge Ukraine land mass by the time the fighting is over. Ukraine will be landlocked rump state with Odessa lost.
Russia will demand unconditional surrender including removal of all sanctions prior to negotiations beginning. Reimbursement for all confiscated property, remainder of Ukraine neutrality under Russia friendly constitution/government. NORD2 repair by Nato. Nato collapse will likely result.
US dollar as worldwide currency (petro $$) will also end.
All of this totally avoidable. Neocon hubris.
Russia will only offer tangible and immediate demands like these, and will only stop if they acted upon asap.
As in: We had to kill the patient in order to save him.
Great piece.
Can't imagine a "demilitarized" Crimea, given the snowball's chance Russia would ever cede their Sevastopol base. Maybe convert it into a "mostly-peaceful" naval base? 😉
Translation:
The US agrees Russia can keep what they have, till we have enough time to rebuild the Ukrainian Army a 4th time, this time to be maneuver based, and the West May loosen some sanction.
No Plan B. Plan A was so brilliant that no other considerations were necessary. It's the NeoCon way!
Sanctions! Humbug. Russia should demand reparations for lost revenue from NS1&2 as a minimum.
Maybe Odessa wasn't part of the original SMO plans, but I'm sure it is now. The Russians would be insane to leave Ukraine sea access. If they do, how long will it be before arms shipments are being sneaked in again. Taking Odessa also makes it easier for the Russians to keep an eye on Moldova.
It has to be one of the greatest diplomatic and strategic failures of all times. After 1991, we could have built lasting relations with the Russians and kept them out of China's arms. Yet we blew it - and we blew it deliberately. Neocons should hang for this.