I assume that there’s lots going on behind the scenes. I listened to Putin’s uncharacteristically brief (5 minutes!) speech. Some accounts characterized Putin as seeking to project strength. In my mind he said the absolute minimum to calm the Russian public—I think he was holding back on the facts. My theory remains a theory, but so far I see no reason to dump it. There are a lot contradictory narratives out there, but the fundamentals remain the same. The timing, the rhetoric, the coordinated moves. So I’ll just throw out a few things.
Yes. Both his words and actions in a time of war point toward treason. I think we probably need to view this from the perspective of Putin's effort to free Russia from the Communist--and especially the Leninist/Stalinist--past. Key to that is adhering to law. At some point I have to believe that Prigozhin will be brought to justice, after the legal procedures are satisfied.
And not only the Communist past but also the years of humiliation under Yeltsin, the coup, the social turmoil, the rule of oligarchs. That's not that far in the past. Putin is trying to wean Russians from the attachment to "strong men". I know that sounds strange to many, but I believe it's true. The hero worship of an oligarch/warlord that surrounded Prigozhin among many Russians would not be regarded as socially healthy by Putin.
Big Serge makes this very valid about our side's cognitive blinkers too: "On the opposite end of the spectrum, we saw some similar measure of aggressive model-fitting from “Trust the Plan” Russia supporters, who were confident that the Wagner uprising was just an act - an elaborate ruse concocted in concert by Prigozhin and Putin to fool Russia’s enemies and advance the plan. The analytic error here is the same (as the anti-Russians') - information is parsed only for the purpose of buttressing and advancing a pre-concluded endgame; except it is Russian omnicompetence which is assumed instead of Russian state collapse."
The WaPo article from May I remember- easily could have been disinformation put out by the US government to seed doubts between Prighozin and Putin, but in hindsight might well have been the truth for once. Either Prighozin just went nuts and really, really believed he could take down Putin with 2500 men, or he was promised support from some significant others inside Russia and outside Russia, and they either did it with no intention of helping him, or getting cold feet for some reason like, for example, suddenly realizing that Putin knew what was coming.
All in all, though- I still stand by my theory- Prighozin was slowly going nuts, and I think that at some point on the march to Moscow, his men started to abandon him when they realized what was going on was madness that was going to get them all killed on that highway.
Especially this from near the end, noting Prigozhin’s own reasons for leading the mutiny - the dismantling, unmanning of Wagner and its forced absorption into Russian MoD structure - and the resultant personal financial loss:
“I think that Yevgeny Prigozhin is a bit like the Tyrannosaurus in Jurassic Park. Both the western neoliberal apparatus and the Russian four dimensional plan-trusters seem to think of Prigozhin as a cog that exists to execute the function of their world model. Whether that model is the long march of history towards democracy and the last man or a brilliant and nuanced master plan by Putin to destroy the unipolar Atlantic world, it does not matter much - both tend to negate Prigozhin’s agency and turn him into a slave of the model. But perhaps he is a Tyranosaurus, with an intelligence and will that has an internally generated direction indifferent to our world models. Perhaps he tore down the fence for reasons of his own.”
"Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to tell Ukraine where Russian troops were located..."
In all the fog of war, one thing is for sure. If Prigozhin did this, it is treason. I can't see how Prigozhin might survive this.
Yes. Both his words and actions in a time of war point toward treason. I think we probably need to view this from the perspective of Putin's effort to free Russia from the Communist--and especially the Leninist/Stalinist--past. Key to that is adhering to law. At some point I have to believe that Prigozhin will be brought to justice, after the legal procedures are satisfied.
And not only the Communist past but also the years of humiliation under Yeltsin, the coup, the social turmoil, the rule of oligarchs. That's not that far in the past. Putin is trying to wean Russians from the attachment to "strong men". I know that sounds strange to many, but I believe it's true. The hero worship of an oligarch/warlord that surrounded Prigozhin among many Russians would not be regarded as socially healthy by Putin.
I totally agree. There are still many mysteries, but Putin may, in fact, be a 'great man'. Imagine that.
Big Serge makes this very valid about our side's cognitive blinkers too: "On the opposite end of the spectrum, we saw some similar measure of aggressive model-fitting from “Trust the Plan” Russia supporters, who were confident that the Wagner uprising was just an act - an elaborate ruse concocted in concert by Prigozhin and Putin to fool Russia’s enemies and advance the plan. The analytic error here is the same (as the anti-Russians') - information is parsed only for the purpose of buttressing and advancing a pre-concluded endgame; except it is Russian omnicompetence which is assumed instead of Russian state collapse."
The WaPo article from May I remember- easily could have been disinformation put out by the US government to seed doubts between Prighozin and Putin, but in hindsight might well have been the truth for once. Either Prighozin just went nuts and really, really believed he could take down Putin with 2500 men, or he was promised support from some significant others inside Russia and outside Russia, and they either did it with no intention of helping him, or getting cold feet for some reason like, for example, suddenly realizing that Putin knew what was coming.
All in all, though- I still stand by my theory- Prighozin was slowly going nuts, and I think that at some point on the march to Moscow, his men started to abandon him when they realized what was going on was madness that was going to get them all killed on that highway.
IMO the best, most plausible post analysis of the flash coup comes from Big Serge: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-wagner-uprising?publication_id=1068853&post_id=131180413&isFreemail=true
Brilliant summation, yes! Tx for posting
Especially this from near the end, noting Prigozhin’s own reasons for leading the mutiny - the dismantling, unmanning of Wagner and its forced absorption into Russian MoD structure - and the resultant personal financial loss:
“I think that Yevgeny Prigozhin is a bit like the Tyrannosaurus in Jurassic Park. Both the western neoliberal apparatus and the Russian four dimensional plan-trusters seem to think of Prigozhin as a cog that exists to execute the function of their world model. Whether that model is the long march of history towards democracy and the last man or a brilliant and nuanced master plan by Putin to destroy the unipolar Atlantic world, it does not matter much - both tend to negate Prigozhin’s agency and turn him into a slave of the model. But perhaps he is a Tyranosaurus, with an intelligence and will that has an internally generated direction indifferent to our world models. Perhaps he tore down the fence for reasons of his own.”
What color of revolution are we carrying out in Russia by way of Ukraine? Clown-Nose Red?