What In The World Is Going On In Russia?

I assume that there’s lots going on behind the scenes. I listened to Putin’s uncharacteristically brief (5 minutes!) speech. Some accounts characterized Putin as seeking to project strength. In my mind he said the absolute minimum to calm the Russian public—I think he was holding back on the facts. My theory remains a theory, but so far I see no reason to dump it. There are a lot contradictory narratives out there, but the fundamentals remain the same. The timing, the rhetoric, the coordinated moves. So I’ll just throw out a few things.

Read it all in light of this tweet:

Michael Tracey

@mtracey

In May the Washington Post reported, based on the leaked Pentagon documents, that US intelligence agencies assessed Prigozhin had offered to collaborate with Ukraine military intelligence

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to tell Ukraine where Russian troops were located if the Ukrainians pulled back from Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses.

4:50 PM · Jun 26, 2023

Of COURSE Russian intel reads the WaPo—you and I may not, but Russian Intel does for sure. So they saw all this coming. And they would have known that dealing with Ukrainian Intel almost certainly means dealing with US/UK, too.

Will Schryver had this to say about the Putin speech:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

I just read the RT translation of Putin's statement. It clarifies many things for me, and corrects my misconceptions on certain important questions:

The Prigozhin Mutiny was apparently NOT some sort of "psyop", but rather a product of Prigozhin's madness — which I had doubted for a long time.

Putin explicitly confirms the loss of Russian airmen at the hands of Wagner forces — something I had found inconceivable and irreconcilable with Prigozhin simply being permitted to walk "free" (as it seemed).

Also, with these and other questions satisfactorily resolved in my mind, I can more clearly see the wisdom in permitting the "mutiny" to develop as it did, and waiting for an appropriate moment to defuse it. And, based on what Putin has said, he (Prigozhin) will be held accountable for the crimes he has committed.

There are a few other things to which Putin referred which I will address in subsequent comments, after I have had more time to digest them.

3:28 PM · Jun 26, 2023

What I heard was Putin clearly classifying this as a rebellion, not just a mutiny. In a roundabout way Putin certainly stated that the perps would be brought to justice. He also did confirm that Prigozhin’s men had killed Russian forces.

Next, this may surprise readers, because I’m going to offer two headlines from the UK Daily Mail. Yes, every UK outlet I’m aware of is totally in bed with the Deep State, but that means that if the Daily Mail is reporting this …

These headlines, to me, confirm that the FSB was all over this coup attempt from the outset:

Wagner chief 'frantically tried to call Putin en route to Moscow after realising he had gone too far and did not have support within Russian army - but Vladimir refused to speak to him'
UK Daily Mail ^ | June 26, 2023 | Miriam Kuepper and David Averre and Chris Jewers

The significant phrase, to me, has to do with the lack of support from the Russian army. While the “march on Moscow” was ongoing there were a number of fake claims that the Russian army was defecting to Prigozhin. Those were fake, but clearly intended to create momentum. That indicates planning and also indicates intent for regime change. Putin gets that, thus:

Now for Putin's revenge: Russian dictator vows to hunt down Wagner chiefs who led coup and claims Ukraine and the West had role in armed mutiny during new TV statement
Daily Mail ^ | 6/26/2023 | Olivia Jones

Gleaned from a Fox News article, further confirmation that this was an attempt at regime change, and that Russian authorities would be hunting down those responsible. The article also notes that Putin did not name Prigozhin. That would be beneath him:

In a short speech, Putin said the mutineers "betrayed the country, their people and those who they dragged into this affair."

Russian media reported that a criminal case against Prigozhin hasn't been closed, despite earlier Kremlin statements, and some Russian lawmakers called for his head.

That’s it for now.