Yes, a big screw-up by the Russians. However, in 6 months this will be as forgotten as the current Olympics. Nevertheless, it raises the point that Putin needs to get the job done in Ukraine. The Russian people firmly back him, but even their patience is going to wear thin if this drags on for another year or more.
As I discussed in my last Deep Dive show, it almost doesn’t matter what the actual tactical situation is regarding Ukraine’s incursion into Russia bc the operational and strategic situation hasn’t been changed materially. Whether quickly or in a few months, the RU side must prevail. It’s basic inputs and fundamentals of war.
Ignorant analysts in the U.S. are already claiming the tide has changed and Russia is on its back foot. In my estimation, Russia is embarrassed and annoyed and their timing on future ops has genuinely been altered, but the cost to UAF for the incursion will likely b steep for this temp media gain, hastening the eventual collapse.
Why do you rate this an error and embarrassment? It’s mildly annoying that bloggers believe to have better information that RF General Staff.
The alternative would be to bring in the reserves and start fighting VSU brigades where exactly? Why is this preferred to having them extended at a known location and decimate their armor en route? Loss of a village means nothing, VSU will waste their reserves. You never have full information about the force about to hit you, so you leave the screen (God bless those border guards), read enemy’s cards and act accordingly.
It's certainly not a Russian defeat in the same league as those of the summer of '41, but if I were a Russian Joe Sixpack, I'd be seriously angered that this happened. It gives the Ukrainians more publicity in the West when their lustre is fading, and will help attract further funding. Get the job done, Vlad!
Optics only, in my opinion. This sort of operation will cost Ukraine resources they can't afford on the battlefield but the optics of it strengthen Zelensky and Biden/Harris. It is a stupid gamble, however- these forces could easily end up cut off in an encirclement- then the optics reverse.
I can see that argument. Yes, the nuclear facility is in that direction, but what would be the likelihood of a force as described ever reaching it? As we've seen, about zero.
The Kursk incursion was a gambit intended to sprint forward and capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, and then hold it hostage thereby forcing a favorable negotiating position with Russia. Much like Germany's Ardennes offensive during WW2, it was a long shot that ultimately signaled that end was nigh. Ukraine will now begin shifting focus toward a guerilla warfare strategy centered west of Dnieper River. Expect the West to begin shipping lots of small arms, rifle ammunition, FPVs, and small packet explosives to Lvov. This will force Russia to go all the way to the Polish border. Blackrock is not happy.
The neocons will continue stirring the pot as long as they can. However, I think that by the time the Russians get to the Dnieper, the West will have other more serious things to worry about. I'm sure there will be acts of terrorism, but I don't see it changing much.
The Deep State wants Ukraine to become a long-term bleeding wound for Russia, much like Afghanistan in the 80s, which is why guerilla warfare will be initiated next. The neocon warmongering will never stop, which is why Russia must facilitate the demise of the West and NATO. Only a Western collapse will stimulate ordinary citizens to rise up and dispense with these neocon parasites. Before this war ends, more than a million good men will have died solely because Blackrock wanted to make money stealing Ukraine's mineral wealth.
The Clairton Sportsmen's Club is less than a mile from my house and I often wondered if Crooks was somehow recruited there. Pure speculation. Now I see that he may have been accompanied by someone on 4 of his 43 visits there Also that DHS appears to use the facility for training. Lots of unanswered questions!
If, as seems likely, that the assassination attempt on Trump was planned and aided by insiders over a very long time frame (Crooks interest in marksmanship dating back a year), then someone in Trump's orbit must have helped organize and promote the rally in Butler, otherwise Crooks' training would have been for naught. Methinks Trump's enemies are everywhere and that may include his own team.
Certainly a possibility that shouldn't be discounted without good reason. The sudden decision to get snipers in place at the last moment looks, well, funny. Like, they suddenly realized that if dead men don't talk they'd better get that set up.
Well deduced. Castro once said that the reason they never succeeded in assassinating him was because all the people protecting him were people he knew.
Electronic warfare played a huge part in this for Ukr. Jamming Lancet's regularly plus having broken the Russia communication codes to learn about response (troop) movements allowed for a huge surge. Russia got de-pantsed and will now learn from it. Putin isn't pleased... heads will roll.
The "voices" being heard are non-Ukr imbedded in the Recon troops acting as Merc's to support infantry. The EW is def US and made possible through ISR assets.
Israel assassinates the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders without the US knowing a thing about it, Ukraine invades Russia without the US knowing a thing about it. Funny how the US always manages to be blissfully unaware of the audacious military action taken by the states it subsidizes
Agreed, Dutch. Manstein was the greatest military leader of the war. No-one could have done what he did after Stalingrad. To me, a great general has to be able to do three things successfully: lead a rapid, blitzkrieg-style attack, capture a heavily-defended fortress, and above all, lead a disciplined retreat in difficult circumstances. He did all of those. Agreed about Balck too. Brilliant commander. The Germans seemed to have hundreds of these top-flight generals while the only one on our side whom I can think of who matched them was Bill Slim, with an honorable mention for lower-order commanders like Lightning Joe Collins.
Yes, a big screw-up by the Russians. However, in 6 months this will be as forgotten as the current Olympics. Nevertheless, it raises the point that Putin needs to get the job done in Ukraine. The Russian people firmly back him, but even their patience is going to wear thin if this drags on for another year or more.
Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1
As I discussed in my last Deep Dive show, it almost doesn’t matter what the actual tactical situation is regarding Ukraine’s incursion into Russia bc the operational and strategic situation hasn’t been changed materially. Whether quickly or in a few months, the RU side must prevail. It’s basic inputs and fundamentals of war.
Ignorant analysts in the U.S. are already claiming the tide has changed and Russia is on its back foot. In my estimation, Russia is embarrassed and annoyed and their timing on future ops has genuinely been altered, but the cost to UAF for the incursion will likely b steep for this temp media gain, hastening the eventual collapse.
Time will tell.
Why do you rate this an error and embarrassment? It’s mildly annoying that bloggers believe to have better information that RF General Staff.
The alternative would be to bring in the reserves and start fighting VSU brigades where exactly? Why is this preferred to having them extended at a known location and decimate their armor en route? Loss of a village means nothing, VSU will waste their reserves. You never have full information about the force about to hit you, so you leave the screen (God bless those border guards), read enemy’s cards and act accordingly.
It's certainly not a Russian defeat in the same league as those of the summer of '41, but if I were a Russian Joe Sixpack, I'd be seriously angered that this happened. It gives the Ukrainians more publicity in the West when their lustre is fading, and will help attract further funding. Get the job done, Vlad!
Optics only, in my opinion. This sort of operation will cost Ukraine resources they can't afford on the battlefield but the optics of it strengthen Zelensky and Biden/Harris. It is a stupid gamble, however- these forces could easily end up cut off in an encirclement- then the optics reverse.
I can see that argument. Yes, the nuclear facility is in that direction, but what would be the likelihood of a force as described ever reaching it? As we've seen, about zero.
The Kursk incursion was a gambit intended to sprint forward and capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, and then hold it hostage thereby forcing a favorable negotiating position with Russia. Much like Germany's Ardennes offensive during WW2, it was a long shot that ultimately signaled that end was nigh. Ukraine will now begin shifting focus toward a guerilla warfare strategy centered west of Dnieper River. Expect the West to begin shipping lots of small arms, rifle ammunition, FPVs, and small packet explosives to Lvov. This will force Russia to go all the way to the Polish border. Blackrock is not happy.
The neocons will continue stirring the pot as long as they can. However, I think that by the time the Russians get to the Dnieper, the West will have other more serious things to worry about. I'm sure there will be acts of terrorism, but I don't see it changing much.
The Deep State wants Ukraine to become a long-term bleeding wound for Russia, much like Afghanistan in the 80s, which is why guerilla warfare will be initiated next. The neocon warmongering will never stop, which is why Russia must facilitate the demise of the West and NATO. Only a Western collapse will stimulate ordinary citizens to rise up and dispense with these neocon parasites. Before this war ends, more than a million good men will have died solely because Blackrock wanted to make money stealing Ukraine's mineral wealth.
I agree that they will try, but that doesn't mean they will succeed.
That's Mercouris' view, more or less.
Crooks became a member of Clairton Sportsmen’s Club last August and visited there at least 43 times
The Clairton Sportsmen's Club is less than a mile from my house and I often wondered if Crooks was somehow recruited there. Pure speculation. Now I see that he may have been accompanied by someone on 4 of his 43 visits there Also that DHS appears to use the facility for training. Lots of unanswered questions!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/records-reveal-trump-shooter-visited-local-gun-range-dozens-times-and-may-have-had
If, as seems likely, that the assassination attempt on Trump was planned and aided by insiders over a very long time frame (Crooks interest in marksmanship dating back a year), then someone in Trump's orbit must have helped organize and promote the rally in Butler, otherwise Crooks' training would have been for naught. Methinks Trump's enemies are everywhere and that may include his own team.
Certainly a possibility that shouldn't be discounted without good reason. The sudden decision to get snipers in place at the last moment looks, well, funny. Like, they suddenly realized that if dead men don't talk they'd better get that set up.
Well deduced. Castro once said that the reason they never succeeded in assassinating him was because all the people protecting him were people he knew.
43x is close to once a week in that time period.
Electronic warfare played a huge part in this for Ukr. Jamming Lancet's regularly plus having broken the Russia communication codes to learn about response (troop) movements allowed for a huge surge. Russia got de-pantsed and will now learn from it. Putin isn't pleased... heads will roll.
Which means that the US was actively involved in the invasion. The Russians keep reporting hearing French and Polish voices.
The "voices" being heard are non-Ukr imbedded in the Recon troops acting as Merc's to support infantry. The EW is def US and made possible through ISR assets.
I wonder what Putin will do about that? He took a long time to react about the Western ISR over the Black Sea.
Michael Tracey @mtracey
Israel assassinates the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders without the US knowing a thing about it, Ukraine invades Russia without the US knowing a thing about it. Funny how the US always manages to be blissfully unaware of the audacious military action taken by the states it subsidizes
Yep. The return of the "Know-Nothings"
Brought to you by the Alfred E Neuman management team.
Michael Tracey @mtracey
The US is actively enabling a literal ground invasion of Russia at the moment, and it's not even being treated like a particularly big story
Like the Trump assassination attempt. Soon dropped out of the news. Imagine if it had happened against Obama.
Yeah, the only way it could have dropped out of the news any faster would have been if it had been successful.
Funny. A reflection of "not that important" anymore. Society today is all about me, now, entitlement, impact.
It's all about the criminal gang.
And German tanks too. All it needed was the ghost of Erich Manstein.
Agreed, Dutch. Manstein was the greatest military leader of the war. No-one could have done what he did after Stalingrad. To me, a great general has to be able to do three things successfully: lead a rapid, blitzkrieg-style attack, capture a heavily-defended fortress, and above all, lead a disciplined retreat in difficult circumstances. He did all of those. Agreed about Balck too. Brilliant commander. The Germans seemed to have hundreds of these top-flight generals while the only one on our side whom I can think of who matched them was Bill Slim, with an honorable mention for lower-order commanders like Lightning Joe Collins.