What Happened In The Kursk Border Region?

Mikael Valtersson has been quiet for quite some time, but today he explains what happened in the Russian border area near Kursk. He emphasizes that Russian forces, such as they were, were stationed quite a distance from the border itself to remain out of range of offensive weapons from the Ukrainian side. Presumably, Russian forces that were within range of, say, HIMARS, would have been picked up and targeted for the Ukrainians by US overhead surveillance—mostly satellite. What that leaves unexplained, of course, is why Russian overhead surveillance and ground intelligence would not have picked up on Ukrainian preparations. Obviously the Ukrainian attack didn’t really come “from out of nowhere.” It’s the job of the military command to plan and prepare for such contingencies as this turned out to be. One presumes that once the situation is fully dealt with heads will roll.

Mikael Valtersson @MikaelValterss1

ANALYSIS: UKRAINIAN KURSK OFFENSIVE, AUG 10th 2024 Now, when the frontline has, at least temporarily, been stabilised on the Kursk frontline, we can talk about what has happened and how this happened. The Ukrainian goals, future developments and an assessment of the operations consequences will come in another tweet later today.

What has happened?

UkrAF started a surprise attack with limited forces into the Kursk region. The border was very weakly defended by mainly Russian border guards, some recon units and conscripts. During the initial phase UkrAF advanced fast, deep into Russian territory. This advance was mostly conducted by Ukrainian DRG units [basically, recon units]. The main force advanced more slowly and cleared areas bypassed by their own DRGs. There was no clear frontline and the amount of territory controlled by the UkrAF was hidden by the fog of war. Then Russian reinforcement started to arrive at the scene and yesterday they established a real frontline. At the same time the Ukrainian DRG units withdrew or went underground. On the maps it looks like UkrAF took control of very large areas if you include the areas where the DRG units were active. If you map it that way, the Russians retook maybe half of the area during the last 48 hours. But in reality the DRG active area wasn't controlled by the UkrAF, it was only contested and now back in Russian hands. The main frontline hasn't moved much during the last day. The front has been stabilised by the RuAF.

How did it happen?

Russia has been preparing for a Sumy offensive and been conducting mine clearing operations in the area in preparation for this. RuAF underestimated Ukrainian willingness to conduct offensive operations. Mainly since Ukraine needs every available military unit elsewhere on the front. RuAF therefore didn't increase troop levels at the border, even though they reduced the minefields.

So Russian mine clearing prep cleared the way for a rapid advance by light Ukrainian forces, followed by more substantial forces. This seems to be a very basic mistake—to remove minefields without providing adequate surveillance of the area with forces within range to counter incursions.

The Russian forces in the Kursk region was mainly situated far from the border and also partly dispersed. The reason for this was to be out of range from Ukrainian artillery and FPVs, and at the same time don't give tempting targets for Ukrainian medium range assets, as HIMARS. Other Russian units were situated even further back from the front, either in the Belgorod region or further back in Russia.

Both sides employ the same attack tactics when they launch major attacks. You can't build up large troop concentrations, since the enemy immediately will know of your plans and can start weakening the troop concentrations. You must start the attack with the units that are close to the frontline and fast move forward a second, and then a third echelon. But the reserves will be situated far back and it will take some time to deploy them. It is also important not to allow the enemy to get air superiority over the terrain. Otherwise you might get your reserves depleted on the way forward.

Ukraine avoided a build up of large forces near the border, but secretly sent DRG units to the border, often in civilian cars and clothes. UkrAF probably used a rotation time near the border to launch their offensive. Then they would have had double the amount of troops near the border when they attacked.

From nowhere a couple of thousand soldiers attacked over the border and into Russian territory. Ukrainian forces avoided fighting over (weak) Russian strongholds and bypassed these to get as deep as possible into Russian territory. They could then surprise and ambush the meagre Russian reinforcements in the area. The second echelon of Ukrainian troops handled remaining Russian forces near the border.

After some logistical problems Russian reinforcements from the rest of the Kursk region is now to a large extent at the front or preparing to deploy. This has stabilised the front and no major changes will occur for some days. But the frontline might fluctuate a little the coming days. Both sides have probably 10 000 men each on the front, but RuAF will still have an air advantage. Map from

@WeebUnionWar

6:03 AM · Aug 10, 2024

While this will end up being another costly and largely pointless defeat for Ukraine, it has also been a real screwup on the Russian side. Someone will pay for the embarrassment and unnecessary loss of life, but the war will continue as before and presumably lessons will have been learned. Russia has overwhelming reserves to deal with this and similar events, without repositioning its main offensive forces.