16 Comments

Putin wants Odessa. That's probably 2 years away given the pace and lack of negotiations.

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Odessa's tricky to get to. However, if the Russians take advantage of their latest victory, who knows?

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Feb 19
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The Ukrainians will either collapse or tell the Russians ‘hold my Vodka’ and assault towards Kiev, take the city, and execute everyone over the rank of Captain. They will then drink to the peace with the Russians. Vladimir wants Odessa? Perhaps something like ‘Just let us go back to the farm and export our grain.’ Ahhh….neutrality.

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The neocons refuse to learn. Their levels of delusion are astonishing: "The West still has seized reserves, sanctions, and a few other things to bring to the negotiating table with Putin". Do they really think that these will intimidate Putin? Meanwhile, Germany's Rheinmetall arms company has won a deal to build a munitions factory in Ukraine which will be destroyed by Russian missiles the day after Angela Merkel cuts the ribbon.

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Absolutely.

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The downing of the U.S. Reaper drone is just another one of the thousand cuts strategy by Iran of slow, measured escalation.

I expect the next cut to be in Iraq or Syria.

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Absolutely. The first cut isn't necessarily the deepest.

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The British tanker targeted by the Houthis is now a wreck on the seabed. Been quite the 24hrs.

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Feb 21
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Good point - Escalating sound and fury from the U.S.

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As I was saying, hard to keep up:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --@GeromanAT

In the near future there will be a difficult situation not only near Avdeevka, but also in the south, there is a big threat in the areas of the Kharkov region, near Kupyansk, - deputy commander of the 3rd assault brigade "Azov"

 “We must realize and understand that we need to prepare for extremely difficult and difficult battles,” said Maxim Zhorin.

He also added that the Russians have been preparing for this all this time: they were preparing reserves, forces, equipment and ammunition, and now the time has come when they will begin to use all this on the battlefield.

Analytics by Yuri Podolyaki

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Feb 19
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"Primitive"? They invented coffee as a beverage and still make the best coffee in the world. That's hardly primitive--more like benefactors of mankind.

"Savages"? They're blockading the Red Sea in order to put a stop to Israeli genocide. Again, benefactors of mankind, not savages.

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Coffee is a great point.

Yemenis are also known to be heavy users of qat.

Iranians I have a huge respect for their science and technical ability.

Yemen did withstand a heavy assault from the Saudis for years.

My guess is all the drones, technology, and ISR/guidance (spy vessel) are providing by the Iranians through the revolutionary guard.

Gee, this sounds like what NATO is doing in Ukraine…

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Just read that in January 2023 the US Navy launched more Tomahawks at Yemen than they purchased in all of 2022. IOW, the Houthis knew exactly what would come their way following their Red Sea blockade--and figured they could handle that.

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A bit of research. I’m sure the same story for other U.S. Navy missiles.

U.S. navy buys around 55 a year. One year 0, another 100.

Production line due to low orders is low capacity.

2 year lead time.

U.S.Navy had around 4,000 tomahawks.

80 minimum were used so far on Yemen in two days of strikes.

References:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-navy-running-out-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-209317

https://ussanews.com/2024/02/21/is-the-u-s-running-out-of-tomahawk-missiles/

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Feb 20Edited
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Apologies. Printed word isn't always grokked as readily as spoken word. Plus, 1) sitting at a screen most of the day dulls sensibilites and 2) fighting a cold.

It does happen. I have banned people based on misunderstandings of the sort.

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