War Updates: Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen
The fall of Avdeyevka (that’s the Russian spelling) happened far faster than many knowledgeable commentators had predicted. The reason for that is that the dynamics of the war in Ukraine are shifting rapidly, rendering prediction more difficult. Nevertheless, there were some who did suggest that events could begin moving more rapidly as the noose around Avdeyevka tightened.
The significance of Avdeyevka’s fall is twofold. First, it was one of the most strongly fortified locations along the Donbass frontline. Avdeyevka and Marinka (see the map below) were the two main locations from which the Ukro-Nazis rained shells and missiles down upon the civilian population of Donetsk. Second, as Danny Davis and certified Neocon Michael Kofman have stated recently, the Ukrainians do not actually have a well prepared fallback position behind Avdeyevka—and Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, has stated that the Russians are continuing to push forward. That opens up the possibility of a Russian breakout into open steppe country that can now be exploited thanks to Russian air warfare dominance.
What we appear to be seeing is Russia eyeing a possible series of encirclements, some on a smaller scale but some that may be on a much larger scale. The Russian counteroffensive in the south, Zaporozhye direction, is getting underway. There have been four Russian armies being held in reserve there, and a breakout to the north could effectively trap Ukrainians attempting to pull back from Avdeyevka and Marinka. At the same time, Russian movements in the more northerly Kupyansk direction could combine with the breakout from Avdeyevka to threaten encirclement of the key Ukrainian strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Finally, there are said to be very large Russian forces gathered near Belgorod (a regular target of NATO missile attacks on the civilian population). Those forces could be used to encircle Kharkov in the north or also in a “big arrow” move to cut Urkrianian forces off from a retreat to the west and the Dnieper River.
One way or another, it’s beginning to look like we can anticipate major moves in the next few months. The tweet below contains a very clear map which will illustrate portions of what was written in the preceding paragraph. In addition, there is a concise summary of the current conditions:
Patricia Marins @pati_marins64
After gaining control of Avdiivka, the Russians are now targeting Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Chasiv Yar, three of the four remaining fortifications intended to delay the Russian advance.
Over the last few hours, both cities have been heavily attacked by MLRS, ballistic missiles, drones, and Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by strategic bombers. The Russians are attempting to target areas where Ukrainians have reserves and are regrouping. The Ukrainian army fighting in this region hasn't rotated for three months, and most of the soldiers are exhausted.
Even in these conditions, the Ukrainians will stand and offer solid resistance due to the fortifications, but the situation is expected to be even more intense than it was months ago, especially considering the increased activity of the Russian air force over the front due to the lack of anti-aircraft defenses from Ukrainian units.
Why is the situation so serious for the Ukrainian army at this stage of the war?
The entire front is facing numerous shortages, and the Russians are increasing the pressure. The question is not if the Russians will open new fronts, but when they will do so.
Discussing peace at this moment isn't easy. Putin has an advantage, and I don't see anyone able to prevent Ukraine from being divided.
Specifically regarding peace, Putin will also demand full demilitarization of Ukraine. I don't see him winning a war and allowing NATO troops on this part of the border. The West still has seized reserves, sanctions, and a few other things to bring to the negotiating table with Putin, but a divided Ukraine and demilitarization, at least for me, seem to be unavoidable terms.
The West won't accept a defeat in Ukraine, and the more time that passes, the fewer territories the Ukrainians can retain. Yes, it's a humiliation for 40 countries to be defeated, but the sooner they negotiate, the more land the Ukrainians can keep.
11:55 PM · Feb 17, 2024
NBC news has a report suggests disturbing Neocons to escalate against Russia. This business of providing ATACMS missiles is almost pure provocation. The US is unlikely to provide enough missiles to effectively strike the Russian military in Crimea. As in Belgorod and other locations they are likely to be used against civilian targets. These weapons systems are transparently NATO controlled and operated:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
Biden administration is working towards providing Ukraine with powerful new long-range ballistic missiles - NBC
If Republicans continue to block U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the White House could turn to an ally to provide Kyiv with ATACM missiles capable of striking Russian-held Crimea.
This will definitely escalate the situation much more. Biden and NATO intend to inflame the war even more because it brings them huge profits and money.
It's just a question of how long Putin will be patient and start retaliating by arming Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
http://t.me/megatron_ron
9:13 AM · Feb 19, 2024
This could backfire big time from a political standpoint, in a major global election year—elections not only in the US but across much of the world. War isn’t popular among normal people. As for the US operation of attacks on Russia in the Black Sea region:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
What a load of speculative, manipulative nonsense propaganda.
These surface drone operations were 100% NATO undertakings, from the construction of the drones themselves to the ISR and direct operation of the mission.
Quote
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) @mercogliano
Analysis: An Operational View on the USV Attacks in the Black Sea from an Admiral’s Eyes via @navalnewscom
An astute commenter notes that Russia can easily put a stop to all this by taking out our ISR assets.
Speaking of which, things are heating up in the Middle East. Hamas took action that bodes ill for the USNeocon/Israel war combine—given that far more advanced weaponry is surely going to other actors in the region. The SAM 7 is a Cold War system:
#BREAKING Hamas: We were able to target an enemy Hermes 900 reconnaissance drone with a SAM 7 missile southwest of Gaza City.
More on the Indian role, which could backfire:
War on Gaza: Indian-made Israeli 'killer' drones set to make their way to Gaza
Human rights activists and defence analysts say the drone deal highlights India's growing complicity in Israel's policies towards the Palestinians
More escalation, on the Yemen front. The Neocons can’t afford to have Yemen swatting expensive drones out of the sky. These UAVs are a key to our operations—this is a big deal.
BREAKING:
Yemen shot down an US MQ-9 UAV near the port city of Hudaydah. This is the second MQ-9 reaper drone shot down by the Houthis since the beginning of the war. http://t.me/megatron_ron
Will Schryver points out the implications of Yemen’s increasing capabilities:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
It would appear #OperationWhackAMole is not achieving its objectives, even as the Yemeni arsenal is being upgraded.
We're gonna see a US warship hit before too much longer.
Quote
Arya - آریا @AryJeay
SINKING SHIP: Yahya Sarae:
In response to the US-UK aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces, carried out a military operation targeting a British ship, 'RUBYMAR,' in the Gulf of Aden with anti-ship missiles. The results of the operation include:
Inflicting severe damage to the ship, leading to its complete halt.
Due to extensive damage, the ship is now at risk of sinking in the Gulf of Aden.
Ensuring the safe evacuation of the ship's crew during the operation.
In Hodeidah, the Yemeni air defenses, successfully shot down an America MQ-9 drone with a suitable missile while the drone was conducting hostile operations.
1:23 AM · Feb 19, 2024
On the economic front, here’s a thought provoking three tweet thread by Will Schryver from 2017—stuff matters:
This is where neo-Keynesian dogma fails most dramatically to predict “human action” in the context of current global economic realities. 1/3
Future international trade relationships won’t accommodate players whose national economy is built almost exclusively on consumption. 2/3
Traders of goods will no longer accept in exchange rapidly decaying IOUs; will demand instead value for value. 3/3
What would constitute “value for value”? Tech transfer? Part ownership of infrastructure? Stuff.
And lastly—yes, it’s from The Onion, but also from Foreign Policy!
As I was saying, hard to keep up:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --@GeromanAT
In the near future there will be a difficult situation not only near Avdeevka, but also in the south, there is a big threat in the areas of the Kharkov region, near Kupyansk, - deputy commander of the 3rd assault brigade "Azov"
 “We must realize and understand that we need to prepare for extremely difficult and difficult battles,” said Maxim Zhorin.
He also added that the Russians have been preparing for this all this time: they were preparing reserves, forces, equipment and ammunition, and now the time has come when they will begin to use all this on the battlefield.
Analytics by Yuri Podolyaki
The neocons refuse to learn. Their levels of delusion are astonishing: "The West still has seized reserves, sanctions, and a few other things to bring to the negotiating table with Putin". Do they really think that these will intimidate Putin? Meanwhile, Germany's Rheinmetall arms company has won a deal to build a munitions factory in Ukraine which will be destroyed by Russian missiles the day after Angela Merkel cuts the ribbon.