This may seem a bit disjointed, but a common theme will be how Russia is responding to evolving geopolitical challenges. Before we go further, I’m listening to Larry Johnson and Nima while writing. LJ just made the point, in support of those who maintain that Russia knew in advance what was coming in Syria, that the Chinese probably knew of US/Turkish/Israeli plans via their backdoor hack of US communicantions—and shared that with Russia. Another confirmation is that, even as Russia negotiates with Turkey, they appear to be basically evacuating their bases in Syria. That kind of operation doesn’t happen overnight without prep. There is reported to be a steady stream of massive Russian transports rotating through their airbase. Heading back to Russia? Not so much:
Reuters: A Syrian security official stationed outside the Russian air base in Latakia revealed that "a Russian cargo plane left the base heading to Libya today.”
"More Russian planes are expected to take off from the Hmeimem air base in the coming days."
The Telegraph’s analysis of air bases in Libya reveals the presence of military transport aircraft, updated runways, reinforced perimeter defenses, and new buildings. Russia is now landing military aircraft in Libya on newly refurbished runways as part of its rapid expansion in Africa.
The analysis conducted by The Telegraph at three Libyan air bases indicates the presence of Russian military transport aircraft, updated runways, reinforced perimeter defenses, and newly constructed buildings. Russia’s military presence in Libya is growing significantly due to the developing partnership between General Khalifa Haftar, who commands the eastern and southern regions of the country, and the Russian president.
The refurbishment of the airstrip has enhanced the base’s ability to efficiently receive and launch military aircraft. Russian air operations are ongoing at the Brak al-Shati and al-Jufra bases, with satellite imagery showing active aircraft movements and frequent operations, suggesting a continuous transfer of supplies.
The al-Qardabiya base is currently undergoing extensive renovations, including runway improvements and reinforced defenses, indicating a strategic move to expand and strengthen its defensive capabilities. Libya serves as a pivotal location for Russia’s expanding operations in Africa, opening up opportunities for further access to countries such as Sudan, Mali, Chad, and the Central African Republic.
Since the whole Syria situation blew up there have been tweets pointing to the Turkish goal of a trans-Arabian pipeline from Qatar through Syria to Turkey—and on to Europe. First, realize this regarding Qatar:
Qatar also has particularly strong ties with France, China, Iran, Turkey, as well as a number of Islamist movements in the Middle East such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
And, yes, Hamas is a part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement.
'During the 1950’s, President Eisenhower and the Dulles brothers rebuffed Soviet treaty proposals to leave the Middle East a cold war neutral zone and let Arabs rule Arabia.' 'The CIA began its active meddling in Syria in 1949...'
However. There’s another angle here, too, which is the over 100 year old goal of making the port of Haifa the major oil hub on the eastern Mediterranean:
A glance at the maps shows that the pipelines crisscross—or would crisscross if the Qatar pipeline came into existence. To what extent would these plans be compatible, especially since other trans-Arabia pipelines could be diverted through Haifa? There’s a lot of money and power at stake here, and who would be fool enough to entrust Erdogan/Turkey with extra money/power? On the other hand, there’s also a lot of warfare to come to make either project a reality.
Before we shift to Ukraine, some brief news items—the chaos in Syria is just beginning:
15 members of HTS were killed in an armed ambush carried out by resistance fighters (not sure who yet) in a village in the countryside of Latakia.
And both Turkey and Israel appear to have laid claim to Damascus:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Turkey invades northern Syria!
Israel from the south, Turkey from the north, Syria is raped.
Turkish forces are moving towards Kobani, Kurdish-controlled northern Syria.
That’s right. Those “rebels” in Syria turn out to be from China. Huh! Who thinks 1) the Chinese are fully aware that the US is behind the concept of starting a Uyghur terror campaign in China, and 2) that the Chinese are full capable of dealing with this? Me too:
By the way, Xi Jinping turned down Trump’s invite to the inauguration:
Chinese President Xi Jinping refused the invitation to the inauguration of newly elected United States President Donald Trump - CBS News reports
Lastly, there have been repeated reports over the past week of significant Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine, including in the important Pokrovsk direction. Zerohedge reports on this here:
The key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front, Pokrovsk has been under steady contention for the past three months. Russian forces have spent the better part of that time pushing westward to flank just south of the city. They have now taken Kurakhove and cut off supply routes coming from Pokrovsk to a large portion of the front line. Some reports indicate that Ukrainian troops trying to leave Kurakhove may be cut off. The slow motion flanking maneuver has set the stage for Pokrovsk to be enveloped from the south. 
Since the beginning of the war the area has been the primary staging ground for resupply of Ukrainian troops across the east. After Pokrovsk is cut off or taken, it is expected that Russia will then be able to gain significant ground across the entire front and move closer to controlling all of Donetsk.
Armchair Warlord has a very useful large scale map of Eastern Ukraine to illustrate the importance of Pokrovsk. What I would stress is that the Russians retain large forces in reserve that could be used to launch large scale offensives from the south and the north. Larger breakthroughs with major territorial shifts are a possibility. In point of fact, the tempo of progress continues to increase for the Russian side, so projections for the future are only estimates. In the map below, Pokrovsk is just to the right of center, along the long side of the quadrilateral, on the road from Donetsk to Dnipro.
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW 
Even assuming no significant change in the tempo of the war in 2025 the Russians on course to secure the Donbass and be set to assault Zaporozhie City and Dnipropetrovsk by the end of next year.
(pictured: projected Russian gains at a rate of advance of about 1,000 sq. km/month)
10:25 PM · Dec 12, 2024
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No mention in linked article on Turkish forces in Libya.
I really should not laugh, but I can't help it.