UPDATE: As I write, I’ve heard that Pelosi has landed in Taiwan with a Taiwanese (?) fighter escort and is making provocative statements aimed at the PRC.Thanks for reading Meaning In History! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
I mean this with no disrespect, but I am surprised that so many are surprised by this move by the U.S.
The same people who have dismembered the middle class in the U.S, lied about Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, instigated the 2014 coup in Ukraine, weaponized the US intel communities against its political adversaries, abused the FISA courts, gave us 4 years + of the Russia collusion hoax, are guilty of patent seditious conspiracy against a sitting US President, rigged the 2020 elections, are principal instigators of the current war in Ukraine and drove together the most dangerous geopolitical adversaries the West has ever known...
The only moves Pelosi and he paymasters in Davos have left is true scorched earth.
These people are dangerous ideologues bent on keeping control at ANY cost.
The timing and nature of Pelosi's trip is curious indeed. I claim no special knowledge of such (of course) but when one looks at the situation in the Ukraine I can't help but think this is both an intentional diversion from the West's failure there and a warning to the Chinese (a sortie, if you will) to be restrained in their alignment with Russia.
Things are changing fast in the balance of power in the world and in the world economy - I think the Biden admin sees this and wants to send a message to the Chinese that they remain (for the time being) too dependent on the U. S. and its political power economically to break from it now - essentially the Biden admin wants to attenuate change in the hope of maximizing what power they still have (much as Luongo has recently stated: https://tomluongo.me/2022/07/31/sanctions-only-buy-time-not-victory/). The Biden admin may have calculated that this is a particularly vulnerable time for China's economy.
Speaking of the "new reality" of the world economy, famed Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Poszar came out today with some interesting points about the changing structure of economic dependencies in the world (I quote):
"Russia and China have been the main 'guarantors of macro peace' providing all the cheap stuff that was the source of deflation fears in the West, which in turn gave central banks license for years of money printing (QE). But now the pillars of the low inflation world are changing... central banks are done with fighting deflation with asset price inflation, and are now fighting inflation with asset price deflation. Central banks are adapting to a world that's gone from having too much stuff and not enough demand to a world that has not enough stuff and too much demand. Today's inflation is more about supply and less about demand... and more about geopolitics than domestic politics."
I spent the day listening to a lot of Luongo and Mercouris. I saw the article re Pozsar, but didn't get a chance to read it. It sounds like he and Luongo may be on the same page. Luongo has been saying that the Fed's rate increases are not about inflation. Thanks.
Yes, as regards Luongo. Powell himself has come out and admitted that the Fed has no control over supply side issues and their impact on inflation. It is amazing to me that more market analysts have not been willing to admit that the fundamental problem we are facing is not one of demand but of supply, and that is outside control of the Fed.
Russia is self sufficient in food and energy. China is not, and their supplies of oil and feed grains can be turned off without sending a single US ship in harm's way. China has no realistic military options against the US.
That said, the Pelosi visit serves no useful purpose. It is a distraction undertaken for domestic political purposes. We may see many such in the months ahead.
One reason why China's supply of oil and feed grains can NOT be turned of by using US ships is because China is now getting those supplies by land from Russia. A military option that China has is to use its hypersonic missiles against US ships. Maybe that's a reason why Pelosi and the Pentagon spokesguy issued their climbdown--the US doesn't support Taiwan independence.
Sorry, but no. Their oil arrives by ship, not by rail, and their feed supplies are not readily replaceable. There will be no war, at least not over this. If I am wrong, you can have a good gloat, but I'm not wrong. China's threats, like the Pelosi visit, are for domestic consumption.
It's true that Russian oil gets to China by ship, but I wouldn't be too sure that the US would interfere with Russian ships. Nor would I count on the US being able to stop shipments of oil from the Middle East. OTOH, Russian gas arrives via pipeline already, and that's being expanded. I agree that China, as ever, will be cautious. But it has cards to play as well. Cutting Middle East oil to China, if considered, would also cut the same oil from going to Japan and South Korea or force it to run a Chinese gauntlet.
Yeah, there's stuff going on. The Russians are playing hardball without raising their voices much. The US knows they've blown it, and they're trying to get Russia back to the table. Creating distractions, trying to convince the Russians that we're still in control, not gonna work.
Sorry, but I think you are wrong about bellicose Chinese statements and Chinese posturing. The party, or it's designates, make comments like this continually for domestic consumption - sometimes dozens a month! It's been going on for years, but has increased substantially since Mr. Biden took office. My son has lived there for years and I follow the situation. Just because inept and incompetent Western Media does not report on all of it, does not mean it does not occur!
Interestingly, China is actually more ethnically diverse than is Taiwan:
Demographics of China - Wikipedia
According to the 2020 census, 91.11% of the population was Han Chinese, and 8.89% were minorities.
While many in the West have heard about the Tibetans and Uighurs, a striking example of diversity on the local level is in Guangxi, which has been part of China from time pretty much immemorial:
One of the huge fears of the Chinese Leadership is the country dissolving. The Chinese Government has done an amazing job of pushing a shared spoken language since the revolution in 1949.
And the actions towards the Tibetans (traditionally a separate country) and the Uiegers is just a continuation of creating one Chinese culture, with the Party Leading. Discrimination against Falun Hong and Christians is also destroying any cultural competition.
Fraud was the Uniparty's only option last time and fraud is their only option this time. It's their only option until we're all reset or we the people rise up in righteous anger and drive the world elite into the ocean. The bottom of the ocean.
I think CTH gets this a bit wrong when they suggest that the Pentagon worked to "diffuse" [= defuse] a crisis caused by Pelosi. I think they were working all along to manage this through the climbdown. It was part of the plan.
I don’t remember who the source was Mark, but you referenced someone stating that he felt that we were as close to a nuclear war as we have been since the Cuban missile crisis, and yet the media seems to be missing that aspect of our current situation completely.
It’s astonishing to look at how things are moving on the political stage and yet there’s no way you would have any notion of how perilous things are by watching the MSM.
Top priority for them is boys pretending to be girls and girls pretending to be be boys and whether or not the country is using the proper pronouns, and we mustn’t forget the impending doom of climate change. Yet they scratch their heads wondering why no one trusts or has respect for folks in the mainstream media, incredible.
Gonna be a whole lotta people surprised when events in the real world reach out and slap them in the head.
I don't think Russia and China--and the growing bloc that they lead--will put up with our political games indefinitely. I think Yves is correct that the fragility of our empire is multi-dimensional, not just military. Economics and our hollowing out are a huge part of it. When the chickens come home to roost, as they will, that's when things will get really dicey here at home.
If we keep on doing things which are stupid and counter-productive "Russia and China--and the growing bloc that they lead" will huff and puff and hide their laughter. "things will get really dicey here at home."
I was surprised and disappointed at Don Surber's stunningly ignorant post on this topic, praising Pelosi and showing zero understanding of, well, the world.
And therein lies the purpose of Pelosi's visit. There are enough 'conservatives' out there who support the show of American 'power' in Ukraine and now Taiwan that a little tub thumping may earn her a few votes and mitigate the disaster facing Pelosi and Biden in November.
Remember: as Putin teaches us, all American politics is for domestic consumption.
Also, don't forget: China owns the Big Guy. He isn't going to ever rock that boat. Words for domestic political consumption...maybe...but outright harm to China? No way. They paid him far too much and they know far too much for that to ever happen. Imagine if the CCP ever told the world what they know about Hunter and the Big Guy.
To be clear: If I lived in Taiwan I would want to be independent of PRC government control--however that was framed in traditional diplomatic terms. As it is, I live in the US and see no reason to go to war with China over Taiwan. That happens to be the official position of the US government as well, when you sort it out:
Arriving late last night, Speaker Pelosi released the following statement: “Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.”
Would be nice if she, or someone of her stature, had done this a decade or so when the USA still had the world’s most powerful military and economy. Talking smack that you can’t back up is dangerous—how do the leaders of the west not grasp that basic school yard lesson?
Hate on Nancy all you want, but the Speaker of the United States of Representatives, or for that matter, the House Minority Leader, has tremendous stature in the US system of government. No matter how despised the present occupant might be, the office is enough to communicate to foreigners the perceived legislative priorities of either the governing or opposition party.
Everybody is awaiting the outcome with bated breath. Might I suggest the outcome has been pre-scripted. I don' t see Biden, Pelosi and most Democrats, who have profited from Chinese largesse, going up against their paymasters. This will help them on the domestic side as they demonstrate our regime standing up to China, and for their part China gets to retaliate with a move prejudicial to Taiwan. This move will be portrayed by our media as weak and inconsequential, and only Taiwan will feel the brunt of any Chinese action.
…as Taiwan is just another vassal state to be used and abused by its US handlers…but Mark, you’re right: go to war over Taiwan, over Ukraine??? As Johnson says, our leaders, academia and corporate honchos, and one FJB, have been bought and paid for! No wonder they’re weak and wobbly…
Great article that’s a voice of reason in the the fog of our reality. Pelosi’s plane may have landed, but we are still in a holding pattern to find out what all these dominoes falling ultimately means.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest
I mean this with no disrespect, but I am surprised that so many are surprised by this move by the U.S.
The same people who have dismembered the middle class in the U.S, lied about Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, instigated the 2014 coup in Ukraine, weaponized the US intel communities against its political adversaries, abused the FISA courts, gave us 4 years + of the Russia collusion hoax, are guilty of patent seditious conspiracy against a sitting US President, rigged the 2020 elections, are principal instigators of the current war in Ukraine and drove together the most dangerous geopolitical adversaries the West has ever known...
The only moves Pelosi and he paymasters in Davos have left is true scorched earth.
These people are dangerous ideologues bent on keeping control at ANY cost.
The timing and nature of Pelosi's trip is curious indeed. I claim no special knowledge of such (of course) but when one looks at the situation in the Ukraine I can't help but think this is both an intentional diversion from the West's failure there and a warning to the Chinese (a sortie, if you will) to be restrained in their alignment with Russia.
Things are changing fast in the balance of power in the world and in the world economy - I think the Biden admin sees this and wants to send a message to the Chinese that they remain (for the time being) too dependent on the U. S. and its political power economically to break from it now - essentially the Biden admin wants to attenuate change in the hope of maximizing what power they still have (much as Luongo has recently stated: https://tomluongo.me/2022/07/31/sanctions-only-buy-time-not-victory/). The Biden admin may have calculated that this is a particularly vulnerable time for China's economy.
Speaking of the "new reality" of the world economy, famed Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Poszar came out today with some interesting points about the changing structure of economic dependencies in the world (I quote):
"Russia and China have been the main 'guarantors of macro peace' providing all the cheap stuff that was the source of deflation fears in the West, which in turn gave central banks license for years of money printing (QE). But now the pillars of the low inflation world are changing... central banks are done with fighting deflation with asset price inflation, and are now fighting inflation with asset price deflation. Central banks are adapting to a world that's gone from having too much stuff and not enough demand to a world that has not enough stuff and too much demand. Today's inflation is more about supply and less about demand... and more about geopolitics than domestic politics."
Link to some of his comments here: https://twitter.com/BlacklionCTA/status/1554458597282701313
And a short article on his statements can be found here: https://heisenbergreport.com/2022/08/02/zoltan-pozsar-welcome-to-the-war-economy/comment-page-1/
I spent the day listening to a lot of Luongo and Mercouris. I saw the article re Pozsar, but didn't get a chance to read it. It sounds like he and Luongo may be on the same page. Luongo has been saying that the Fed's rate increases are not about inflation. Thanks.
Yes, as regards Luongo. Powell himself has come out and admitted that the Fed has no control over supply side issues and their impact on inflation. It is amazing to me that more market analysts have not been willing to admit that the fundamental problem we are facing is not one of demand but of supply, and that is outside control of the Fed.
Russia is self sufficient in food and energy. China is not, and their supplies of oil and feed grains can be turned off without sending a single US ship in harm's way. China has no realistic military options against the US.
That said, the Pelosi visit serves no useful purpose. It is a distraction undertaken for domestic political purposes. We may see many such in the months ahead.
One reason why China's supply of oil and feed grains can NOT be turned of by using US ships is because China is now getting those supplies by land from Russia. A military option that China has is to use its hypersonic missiles against US ships. Maybe that's a reason why Pelosi and the Pentagon spokesguy issued their climbdown--the US doesn't support Taiwan independence.
Sorry, but no. Their oil arrives by ship, not by rail, and their feed supplies are not readily replaceable. There will be no war, at least not over this. If I am wrong, you can have a good gloat, but I'm not wrong. China's threats, like the Pelosi visit, are for domestic consumption.
It's true that Russian oil gets to China by ship, but I wouldn't be too sure that the US would interfere with Russian ships. Nor would I count on the US being able to stop shipments of oil from the Middle East. OTOH, Russian gas arrives via pipeline already, and that's being expanded. I agree that China, as ever, will be cautious. But it has cards to play as well. Cutting Middle East oil to China, if considered, would also cut the same oil from going to Japan and South Korea or force it to run a Chinese gauntlet.
Actually, not all Russian oil goes to China by ship--there are pipelines as well:
Russia crude oil pipeline capabilities to mainland China—The ESPO crude oil pipeline
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/espo-crude-oil-pipeline.html
New Pipeline Doubles Russian Oil Supply To China
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/New-Pipeline-Doubles-Russian-Oil-Supply-To-China.html
A little China sideshow while the Ukraine debacle gets closed up.
Yeah, there's stuff going on. The Russians are playing hardball without raising their voices much. The US knows they've blown it, and they're trying to get Russia back to the table. Creating distractions, trying to convince the Russians that we're still in control, not gonna work.
Sorry, but I think you are wrong about bellicose Chinese statements and Chinese posturing. The party, or it's designates, make comments like this continually for domestic consumption - sometimes dozens a month! It's been going on for years, but has increased substantially since Mr. Biden took office. My son has lived there for years and I follow the situation. Just because inept and incompetent Western Media does not report on all of it, does not mean it does not occur!
The Chinese threaten to shoot down planes carrying US politicians to Taiwan dozens of times a month? Somehow I don't buy that.
I meant bellicose and aggressive statements. Sorry for any misunderstanding.
Interestingly, China is actually more ethnically diverse than is Taiwan:
Demographics of China - Wikipedia
According to the 2020 census, 91.11% of the population was Han Chinese, and 8.89% were minorities.
While many in the West have heard about the Tibetans and Uighurs, a striking example of diversity on the local level is in Guangxi, which has been part of China from time pretty much immemorial:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangxi#Demographics
The Zhuang of Guangxi are actually the largest minority in China and are about 1/3 of the population of Guangxi.
One of the huge fears of the Chinese Leadership is the country dissolving. The Chinese Government has done an amazing job of pushing a shared spoken language since the revolution in 1949.
And the actions towards the Tibetans (traditionally a separate country) and the Uiegers is just a continuation of creating one Chinese culture, with the Party Leading. Discrimination against Falun Hong and Christians is also destroying any cultural competition.
Fraud was the Uniparty's only option last time and fraud is their only option this time. It's their only option until we're all reset or we the people rise up in righteous anger and drive the world elite into the ocean. The bottom of the ocean.
I think CTH gets this a bit wrong when they suggest that the Pentagon worked to "diffuse" [= defuse] a crisis caused by Pelosi. I think they were working all along to manage this through the climbdown. It was part of the plan.
I don’t remember who the source was Mark, but you referenced someone stating that he felt that we were as close to a nuclear war as we have been since the Cuban missile crisis, and yet the media seems to be missing that aspect of our current situation completely.
It’s astonishing to look at how things are moving on the political stage and yet there’s no way you would have any notion of how perilous things are by watching the MSM.
Top priority for them is boys pretending to be girls and girls pretending to be be boys and whether or not the country is using the proper pronouns, and we mustn’t forget the impending doom of climate change. Yet they scratch their heads wondering why no one trusts or has respect for folks in the mainstream media, incredible.
Gonna be a whole lotta people surprised when events in the real world reach out and slap them in the head.
I don't think Russia and China--and the growing bloc that they lead--will put up with our political games indefinitely. I think Yves is correct that the fragility of our empire is multi-dimensional, not just military. Economics and our hollowing out are a huge part of it. When the chickens come home to roost, as they will, that's when things will get really dicey here at home.
Couldn’t agree more, only thing might quibble on is that I would have capitalized Dicey. : )
Tray table is up and locked, seatbelt is fastened and snug.
That's why the US neocons want war - the ultimate diversion from domestic troubles, and an excuse to impose Covid style rules permanently.
If we keep on doing things which are stupid and counter-productive "Russia and China--and the growing bloc that they lead" will huff and puff and hide their laughter. "things will get really dicey here at home."
I was surprised and disappointed at Don Surber's stunningly ignorant post on this topic, praising Pelosi and showing zero understanding of, well, the world.
And therein lies the purpose of Pelosi's visit. There are enough 'conservatives' out there who support the show of American 'power' in Ukraine and now Taiwan that a little tub thumping may earn her a few votes and mitigate the disaster facing Pelosi and Biden in November.
Remember: as Putin teaches us, all American politics is for domestic consumption.
Also, don't forget: China owns the Big Guy. He isn't going to ever rock that boat. Words for domestic political consumption...maybe...but outright harm to China? No way. They paid him far too much and they know far too much for that to ever happen. Imagine if the CCP ever told the world what they know about Hunter and the Big Guy.
To be clear: If I lived in Taiwan I would want to be independent of PRC government control--however that was framed in traditional diplomatic terms. As it is, I live in the US and see no reason to go to war with China over Taiwan. That happens to be the official position of the US government as well, when you sort it out:
Arriving late last night, Speaker Pelosi released the following statement: “Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.”
Would be nice if she, or someone of her stature, had done this a decade or so when the USA still had the world’s most powerful military and economy. Talking smack that you can’t back up is dangerous—how do the leaders of the west not grasp that basic school yard lesson?
A decade ago, someone of her "stature" would have been in the WH typing pool.
Hate on Nancy all you want, but the Speaker of the United States of Representatives, or for that matter, the House Minority Leader, has tremendous stature in the US system of government. No matter how despised the present occupant might be, the office is enough to communicate to foreigners the perceived legislative priorities of either the governing or opposition party.
Climbdown? But it won't satisfy China long term:
Nancy Pelosi Lands in Taiwan After Kirby Reaffirms “we do not support Taiwan independence”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-lands-in-taiwan-after-kirby-reaffirms-we-do-not-support-taiwan-independence/
Everybody is awaiting the outcome with bated breath. Might I suggest the outcome has been pre-scripted. I don' t see Biden, Pelosi and most Democrats, who have profited from Chinese largesse, going up against their paymasters. This will help them on the domestic side as they demonstrate our regime standing up to China, and for their part China gets to retaliate with a move prejudicial to Taiwan. This move will be portrayed by our media as weak and inconsequential, and only Taiwan will feel the brunt of any Chinese action.
…as Taiwan is just another vassal state to be used and abused by its US handlers…but Mark, you’re right: go to war over Taiwan, over Ukraine??? As Johnson says, our leaders, academia and corporate honchos, and one FJB, have been bought and paid for! No wonder they’re weak and wobbly…
Great article that’s a voice of reason in the the fog of our reality. Pelosi’s plane may have landed, but we are still in a holding pattern to find out what all these dominoes falling ultimately means.