Waiting For Reality

UPDATE: As I write, I’ve heard that Pelosi has landed in Taiwan with a Taiwanese (?) fighter escort and is making provocative statements aimed at the PRC.

The problem is, we’re not sure what the new reality is going to be—in the wake of whether or not the Pelosi Provocation comes off. Whether or not it does, by belief is that the world political situation will be changed. That includes political and economic leverage as well as military leverage. The US has clearly, in my opinion, shot itself in the foot in its Neocon war on Russia. That war is failing on the ground in Ukraine, we have lost whatever leverage we may have had over Russia, and the European economy is at serious risk. I believe that whatever the Chinese response turns out to be, nothing will remain the same. Jake Sullivan, the Hillary briefcase carrier who is Zhou’s NSA, believes that the American people need a “Pearl Harbor moment” to wake them up to the China threat (On The 'Woke' Flight To Taiwan). He may get that moment, but the awakening may not be what he’s hoping for. It may be an awakening to the changed geopolitical world we live in—compared to just ten years ago. The problem in that calculation is that China, for all their rhetoric, does have a lot of control over their response and a lot of options.

For example, The Global Times, which is a semi-official organ for the PRC government, has expressly stated that reality:

China to speed up reunification process with comprehensive action as it ramps up military readiness against Pelosi’s Taiwan visit
Global Times ^
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive on the island of Taiwan on Tuesday night according to foreign media reports, with rising concerns and opposition over her trip within the island and increasing military activities by the Chinese mainland, the Taiwan authorities and the US military in the region. Analysts from both sides of the Taiwan Straits said this risky move will totally change the situation in the region, while the mainland will more actively dominate and speed up the reunification process with comprehensive measures including military and political actions, and these actions will let the US and the secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities feel the pain.

So, military measures are not the only ones under consideration. And may, in the end, not be the most important. In fact, China has “many options” and military strikes “could include” part of the mix:

There are many options on the table for China to speed up the reunification process. These could include striking Taiwan military targets, just as the PLA did in the previous Taiwan Straits crisis, pushing new legislation for national reunification, sending military aircraft and vessels to enter the island's "airspace" and "water areas" controlled by the Taiwan authorities and ending the tacit cease-fire with the Taiwan military.

Whether Pelosi can make her trip to Taiwan happen or not, there is no reason for China to be nervous, because such a political show will not change the overwhelming advantages, especially the military one, held by the mainland against the Taiwan authorities and the US in the region. Nor will the trip provide any possibility of "Taiwan independence," and it cannot change the unshakable hard fact that Taiwan is part of China, said experts, noting that what China needs to do is to use this incident to maximize its advantage and keep pushing the reunification process.

The US, from a strategic standpoint, is clearly using Taiwan and its people as geopolitical pawns just as Ukraine and its people are being used as pawns. The same types of provocations are at play, with weapons supply, but the diplomatic situation makes a difference. Russia has recognized Ukraine as an independent nation. China does not recognize Taiwan as independent—and neither does the US! The US recognizes Taiwan as, in one way or another, part of China and the PRC government as the legitimate government of China. And yet, American troops are currently present in Taiwan training Taiwan’s military on weapons that are clearly aimed at China. That is a situation that China will ultimately address.

This morning at TGP Larry Johnson sets out a variety of possible outcomes, mostly focused on military options. Johnson is one of those who believe the Pelosi Provocation is aimed at domestic political advantage, but here are his options for the short term:

Here are the possibilities:

1. Nancy reverses course a decides not to make the visit.

2. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China, despite a bunch of angry words, does nothing consequential.

3. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China responds with economic sanctions against the west.

4. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China attacks a U.S. military target in the region.

5. The Chinese shoot Nancy out of the sky or force her to land on the mainland.

I find it hard to believe that the Chinese are engaged in mere verbal posturing. Chinese authorities have been quite clear about their feelings regarding Pelosi’s “visit”–the Chinese see it as an attack on China. PERIOD. If the Chinese do back down this will be a major foreign policy victory for Joe Biden. Are the Chinese willing to humiliate themselves to help Dementia Joe out of a bind?

We will know the answers to these question in the next 24 hours.

In terms of military possibilities, another possibility could be an escalation of PRC military activity around Taiwan, possibly including the seizure of “offshore Islands”, many of which are very close to the mainland, rather than to Taiwan. The economic effect on the US and Asian countries of turning the Taiwan region into a de facto war zone could be immense. And very unwelcome to most Americans. China will, IMO, respond, but it will choose it’s response and tailor it.

As I’ve been writing I’ve been listening to a very long (2-1/2 hour) Youtube discussing a broad spectrum of issues surrounding the American Empire—Russia and China are obviously high up on the list. The further into the video you go, the more the focus is on China, and there’s a lot of discussion about economic issues in particular, rather than just military. The participants are Gonzalo Lira, Alex Mercouris, Yves Smith, and Brian Berletic. Lots of provocative, stimulating discussion. You don’t have to agree with it all, but you might like it. It’s about our future.

Roundtable #8: Mercouris, New Atlas, Smith

From their closing statements:

Yves: I think the US is much closer to the end of our empire. I think the fragility on so many fronts is so high. I think it's possible that things could change because of a whole series of negative developments--both economically and geopolitically.

Alex: I agree. When the Americans find that their empire is gone it will be a liberating moment for them. The burden of empire can be very, very heavy. When it’s gone America may be able to address many of the problems that it needs to. Maybe the American people will find out for themselves.

Brian [very edited]: I absolutely agree with that. Even if you think that China is your mortal enemy, there is the saying: Know yourself and know your enemy. Don't depend on others for your understandings.

So, we await developments.