We're going to force you to play by our rules and we're going to penalize you for playing by our rules. Is it any wonder everyone is coming to hate the U.S.?
Pilkington makes some good points but it seems he misses the fact that the Fed lowering rates is not correlated with the rates for long-term Treasuries, which are set by the market. Just because the Fed lowers rates doesn't mean longer term rates will also become lower. That is a function of demand. When the Chinese and foreign central banks are dumping Treasuries to prop up their own currencies those rates will go up - even if the short term rates set by the Fed go down.
Re: "1/ Here is a thread on why recent record sales by the Chinese of US Treasuries might be one of the first signs of a major fiscal crisis in the US."
Forget China - This is the REAL Enemy in America's Crosshairs: Tom Luongo
The coming recession (or potentially a financial collapse) sounds like gloom and doom, but it's actually the necessary first step on the road to redemption. There can be no more kicking-the-can or endless printing of fiat currency in order to maintain the status quo. Hardship is coming on like a freight train and whining is not going to produce a miracle cure. The reason the B2s are still in Diego Garcia is that Trump is using that threat as a Sword of Damocles. If the world does not "negotiate deals" with him, then a war on Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and throw the planet into financial chaos. In other words, we all sink or swim together. Ultimately, you cannot do a Grand Negotiation and Deal without goodwill and fairness for all. There are only two choices before us; it's either new-found genuine integrity or world war.
- If Trump can get some money from Tariffs = Money earmarked for Israel First
- If Trump can get some money from DOGE investigations = Money earmarked for Israel First
- If Trump can stop paying in Ukraine = Money earmarked for Israel First
.
Opinion - Trumps problem right now, especially with the market decline, is there is no freed up money for Israel - gotta free up $ 50 - $ 100 Billion dollars for Israel and quick.
I speculate on two things:
1. Israel will be on the US teat for many years to come - it will take a long time to restart reboot their economy eg: tourism and foreign investment - Israel will not be self sufficient for many years to come. I estimate $ 50 - $ 100 billion needed currently for weapons yes, but as in Ukraine for salaries of government, citizens, retirements, public works, rebuilding, etc.. and then $ 30 billion a year until Israel economy reboot.
2. Israel realized - during the ceasefire - the ceasefire does not work - a ceasefire does not let Israel initiate the restart reboot of the economy - it is a limbo - a purgatory. So Israel had no choice but to break the ceasefire.
Appearances are to me anyway - Netanyahu got Israel pot committed - now Netanyahu has to go all in - But does Trump too ? two main threshold questions are:
A. - For Israel to survive currently - How Much and Where will Trump get the money from ?
And
B. - Given current results of Yemen, will Trump dare to attack Iran ?
Of course - # 3. Israel could settle, could give back some land, and the reboot should restart - may happen even quite quickly - Just like Ukraine - could settle, could give up some land.
3 U.S. bases in northeastern Syria were closed, including one near the Conoco gas field in Deir ez-Zor. U.S. withdrawal from Syria started with around 600 troops pulling out, bringing total personel numbers down to about 1,400.
Speculation:
Not certain of the US plan but perhaps bolsters the thought that US is over extended and Putin made the right choice with Iran about pulling Asaad out and not fighting.
I still believe Trump has to get out of Ukraine, has to solve the Tariff issue - with a main or primary goal of raising or having enough funds available to complete the Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, Colonialism, Removal of Palestinians from Palestine or whatever people choose to label it.
I opine this is the reason for everything all at once and at the same time. Urgency.
Perceived Primary Goal - US must raise funds to give Israel to support Israel - do whatever it takes - view that Israel economy collapsing, large debt, loss of: work, tourism, investments, reservists in army not working, etc. Israel cannot afford this war US must pay - no one else will.
I opine, Israel presumed or was prepared for a few months of attack - budget- finance - never planned they would still be neck deep in it and has no money. It appears impossible Israel can afford this and Trump must raise the money somehow.
Yeah I just don't think there is any doubt that Israel is an economic parasite on Trump's neck - and Trump is desperate to free up money for Israel lots of $$$$$
I bet the primary goal of Netanyahu's most recent visit, was to get a promise of $$$$$
no one says it but one must presume he was begging for $$$$$ - but he does not want to be perceived as another Zelensky [ we all know how that went over ].
I also think the US in Yemen was a great gift to the world. I opine Trump thought Yemen would be easy; based on false presumption that last time Yemen attacked Eisenhower, that that was all there was/all Yemen had. But Yemen stepped up - shortened the timing increasing the number and intensity of attacks on Truman.
Yemen is no gift to the US - but Yemen might have been enough to scare Trump out of Iran. And accordingly, may be perceived as a gift to World Peace.
Agreed if US were to attack Iran US become targets
Additional speculation an attack in Iran with counterattack on Israel gives US excuse to fund Israel - so this may well be a reason and perhaps the Best or Primary reason to attack Iran
- right now selling the giving of 50 or 100 billion to Israel will be a tough sell - for the genocide or cleansing completion on its own - but selling we have to give Israel 50 - 100 billion because they were attacked [ like Ukraine ] is good enough to get the American Citizens to agree.
Trump has a lot of reasons to attack Iran Selling the immediate Giving of 50 - 100 billion to Israel - Money for Israel is primary among them in my opinion.
[ and then giving Israel +/- 30 billion a year thereafter for the foreseen future ]
.
Trump must find a way to fund Israel. Frightening.
The real power of the Israeli lobby in the U.S. government is huge. My guess is probably the most powerful lobby, that most politicians and public figures are loath to cross.
Levers of power:
aipac
Legislation - Some speech legislation probably violating the first amendment
Ability to defeat most incumbents in primaries - Thomas Massey is an exception
Blackmail - Ala Epstein, Maxwell, etc.
Anti semitic accusations
Lawfare
Campaign funding
Christian fundamentalists
Christian leader relations nurtured. Judie Christian propaganda.
Holocaust as a political lever.
Dual citizens
Neocons
So it’s like dancing with an Elephant, and it limits Trumps space to maneuver.
Unfortunately lots of Israeli political demands on the U.S. are driven by internal Israeli politics per Kissinger.
i don’t understand what Trump is doing with the tar baby of Gaza / Syria/ Yemen/ Iran.
My guess is Trump knows a war with Iran would destroy the U.S. economy, so he Is trying to avoid it. Hopefully the Yemen attacks are teaching Trump the limitations of U.S. power.
I wonder how Israel is surviving economically the Gaza war.
If you read more of Mark's writings on point, you will see that he is under no illusion that the overall "provocation plan" (goad weak, backward Russia into kinetic engagement in order to weaken and, ultimately, loot it) was anything but a creature of the Neocons (from "Cookies" Nuland and all the way up and down that roster), not Trump. Problem is, Trump was the perfect mark for turning on the weapons spigot via cretins like Bolton telling him that this was his chance to "look tough against Putin," an irresistible prospect to Big Don.
While I don't think it was Trump's intention to provoke, he got worked into doing so. As such, I would not blame the Russians one bit for ascribing at least some of the provocation to Trump, especially when some of the same Neocon types are running around in his Cabinet. Sort of a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" perception in Moscow.
We're going to force you to play by our rules and we're going to penalize you for playing by our rules. Is it any wonder everyone is coming to hate the U.S.?
Pilkington makes some good points but it seems he misses the fact that the Fed lowering rates is not correlated with the rates for long-term Treasuries, which are set by the market. Just because the Fed lowers rates doesn't mean longer term rates will also become lower. That is a function of demand. When the Chinese and foreign central banks are dumping Treasuries to prop up their own currencies those rates will go up - even if the short term rates set by the Fed go down.
Re: "1/ Here is a thread on why recent record sales by the Chinese of US Treasuries might be one of the first signs of a major fiscal crisis in the US."
Forget China - This is the REAL Enemy in America's Crosshairs: Tom Luongo
Commodity Culture
April 16, 2025
FULL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFb-rNKMk2w
Treasury Bond seller SEGMENT: 13:19 - 16:52
The coming recession (or potentially a financial collapse) sounds like gloom and doom, but it's actually the necessary first step on the road to redemption. There can be no more kicking-the-can or endless printing of fiat currency in order to maintain the status quo. Hardship is coming on like a freight train and whining is not going to produce a miracle cure. The reason the B2s are still in Diego Garcia is that Trump is using that threat as a Sword of Damocles. If the world does not "negotiate deals" with him, then a war on Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and throw the planet into financial chaos. In other words, we all sink or swim together. Ultimately, you cannot do a Grand Negotiation and Deal without goodwill and fairness for all. There are only two choices before us; it's either new-found genuine integrity or world war.
.
I opine
- If Trump can get some money from Tariffs = Money earmarked for Israel First
- If Trump can get some money from DOGE investigations = Money earmarked for Israel First
- If Trump can stop paying in Ukraine = Money earmarked for Israel First
.
Opinion - Trumps problem right now, especially with the market decline, is there is no freed up money for Israel - gotta free up $ 50 - $ 100 Billion dollars for Israel and quick.
I speculate on two things:
1. Israel will be on the US teat for many years to come - it will take a long time to restart reboot their economy eg: tourism and foreign investment - Israel will not be self sufficient for many years to come. I estimate $ 50 - $ 100 billion needed currently for weapons yes, but as in Ukraine for salaries of government, citizens, retirements, public works, rebuilding, etc.. and then $ 30 billion a year until Israel economy reboot.
2. Israel realized - during the ceasefire - the ceasefire does not work - a ceasefire does not let Israel initiate the restart reboot of the economy - it is a limbo - a purgatory. So Israel had no choice but to break the ceasefire.
Appearances are to me anyway - Netanyahu got Israel pot committed - now Netanyahu has to go all in - But does Trump too ? two main threshold questions are:
A. - For Israel to survive currently - How Much and Where will Trump get the money from ?
And
B. - Given current results of Yemen, will Trump dare to attack Iran ?
-
.
Of course - # 3. Israel could settle, could give back some land, and the reboot should restart - may happen even quite quickly - Just like Ukraine - could settle, could give up some land.
I don’t see meaningful lower interest rates on the horizon.
Tariffs could increase inflation.
China dumping U.S. treasuries could result in a need for higher yields.
The U.S. is going to need to refinance a bunch of short term debt soon due to Janet Yellen decisions.
Interest rates are relatively low, historically speaking.
U.S. government continues to run a huge deficit, creating more borrowing and causing higher treasury rates.
The ultra low interest rates were a historical anomaly that caused a lot of financial damage and inflated a lot of bubbles.
Black Swans - unlikely, but…
- Trump gets the us government spending under control.
- War with Iran causes spike in oil prices
- deregulation causes huge increase in productivity.
- massive movement in manufacturing back to U.S.
- peace Deal with Tisdua ends Russian sanctions
- Peace deal with Iran ends sanctions.
- Israeli peace deal calms middle east.
Noting: It has been reported:
3 U.S. bases in northeastern Syria were closed, including one near the Conoco gas field in Deir ez-Zor. U.S. withdrawal from Syria started with around 600 troops pulling out, bringing total personel numbers down to about 1,400.
Speculation:
Not certain of the US plan but perhaps bolsters the thought that US is over extended and Putin made the right choice with Iran about pulling Asaad out and not fighting.
I still believe Trump has to get out of Ukraine, has to solve the Tariff issue - with a main or primary goal of raising or having enough funds available to complete the Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, Colonialism, Removal of Palestinians from Palestine or whatever people choose to label it.
I opine this is the reason for everything all at once and at the same time. Urgency.
Perceived Primary Goal - US must raise funds to give Israel to support Israel - do whatever it takes - view that Israel economy collapsing, large debt, loss of: work, tourism, investments, reservists in army not working, etc. Israel cannot afford this war US must pay - no one else will.
I opine, Israel presumed or was prepared for a few months of attack - budget- finance - never planned they would still be neck deep in it and has no money. It appears impossible Israel can afford this and Trump must raise the money somehow.
.
.
Makes sense.
.
Yeah I just don't think there is any doubt that Israel is an economic parasite on Trump's neck - and Trump is desperate to free up money for Israel lots of $$$$$
I bet the primary goal of Netanyahu's most recent visit, was to get a promise of $$$$$
no one says it but one must presume he was begging for $$$$$ - but he does not want to be perceived as another Zelensky [ we all know how that went over ].
I also think the US in Yemen was a great gift to the world. I opine Trump thought Yemen would be easy; based on false presumption that last time Yemen attacked Eisenhower, that that was all there was/all Yemen had. But Yemen stepped up - shortened the timing increasing the number and intensity of attacks on Truman.
Yemen is no gift to the US - but Yemen might have been enough to scare Trump out of Iran. And accordingly, may be perceived as a gift to World Peace.
.
The report on the attack on U.S. troops in Jordan / Syria just came out. It shows U.S. troops in that area are just big targets.
Agreed if US were to attack Iran US become targets
Additional speculation an attack in Iran with counterattack on Israel gives US excuse to fund Israel - so this may well be a reason and perhaps the Best or Primary reason to attack Iran
- right now selling the giving of 50 or 100 billion to Israel will be a tough sell - for the genocide or cleansing completion on its own - but selling we have to give Israel 50 - 100 billion because they were attacked [ like Ukraine ] is good enough to get the American Citizens to agree.
Trump has a lot of reasons to attack Iran Selling the immediate Giving of 50 - 100 billion to Israel - Money for Israel is primary among them in my opinion.
[ and then giving Israel +/- 30 billion a year thereafter for the foreseen future ]
.
Trump must find a way to fund Israel. Frightening.
.
The real power of the Israeli lobby in the U.S. government is huge. My guess is probably the most powerful lobby, that most politicians and public figures are loath to cross.
Levers of power:
aipac
Legislation - Some speech legislation probably violating the first amendment
Ability to defeat most incumbents in primaries - Thomas Massey is an exception
Blackmail - Ala Epstein, Maxwell, etc.
Anti semitic accusations
Lawfare
Campaign funding
Christian fundamentalists
Christian leader relations nurtured. Judie Christian propaganda.
Holocaust as a political lever.
Dual citizens
Neocons
So it’s like dancing with an Elephant, and it limits Trumps space to maneuver.
Unfortunately lots of Israeli political demands on the U.S. are driven by internal Israeli politics per Kissinger.
i don’t understand what Trump is doing with the tar baby of Gaza / Syria/ Yemen/ Iran.
My guess is Trump knows a war with Iran would destroy the U.S. economy, so he Is trying to avoid it. Hopefully the Yemen attacks are teaching Trump the limitations of U.S. power.
I wonder how Israel is surviving economically the Gaza war.
non-serious knucklehead free zone
If you read more of Mark's writings on point, you will see that he is under no illusion that the overall "provocation plan" (goad weak, backward Russia into kinetic engagement in order to weaken and, ultimately, loot it) was anything but a creature of the Neocons (from "Cookies" Nuland and all the way up and down that roster), not Trump. Problem is, Trump was the perfect mark for turning on the weapons spigot via cretins like Bolton telling him that this was his chance to "look tough against Putin," an irresistible prospect to Big Don.
While I don't think it was Trump's intention to provoke, he got worked into doing so. As such, I would not blame the Russians one bit for ascribing at least some of the provocation to Trump, especially when some of the same Neocon types are running around in his Cabinet. Sort of a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" perception in Moscow.