I watched Tucker Carlson interview Eldridge Colby ("national security expert). I wasn't sure about Colby, but I came away pleasantly surprised. I thought he was a big China hawk. Tucker obviously likes Colby. They talked about foreign policy. Neocons, war, diplomacy, our military, Russia, Ukraine, China. Very realist & reasonable point of view from Colby. I have the impression that Tucker having him on was a bit of a public job interview (something in national security perhaps?). Worth a watch - we may be hearing his name again.
I just did a post on that. I was also more or less pleasantly surprised at his moderated view. I took that to mean that he thought he needed to be more moderate to catch on with Trump 2.0.
It was the first time I’d ever heard him talk or seen him. I’d only seen a couple of tweets from him about Taiwan.. I thought he echoed some points I’ve heard Vance make in interviews.
I read this post and skimmed the follow-up entry that the call may or may not've happened.
My thought is that we are in a transition period and disinformation, whether deliberate or well-intentioned speculation, is going to occur.
Trump will make some good decisions and some bad decisions. He most certainly is not perfect; he also isn't stupid. I am inclined to believe he knows who is enemies are (most of them). Taking a bullet to one's ear will do that for you.
Let's praise when appropriate and criticize when warranted.
Lets also take a deep breath when we read anything in the WAPO, NYT, ABC, CBC, NBC, et. al. Not 'trust but verify.' Don't trust until verified.
I say this with great respect for Mr. Wauck and all my fellow commenters.
Which is all I've got to offer and all it's worth.
Putin will not budge from his announced conditions. 'NATO' must withdraw from Ukraine. The 'Nazis' must be purged. A neutral Ukraine will not ever join NATO. Russia will keep eastern Ukraine.
He has been tricked by the West repeatedly in the past and it simply won't happen again.
I highly doubt there will be a 'ceasefire' or a 'freeze'. While a ceasefire or freeze could, theoretically, promote peace talks, they can also be a subterfuge for Ukrainian re-armament. Putin won't fall for this.
I don't believe Trump's 'trump card', of threatening escalation will move Putin. While moar war is not great from any kind of humanitarian perspective, I simply don't think Putin will be moved by threats of escalation.
And...consider whether Trump can actually deliver on this threat given the US budget situation, weapons depletion, global military commitments, domestic political climate and his own anti-endless war political rhetoric.
When I say Putin, this, and Putin, that, I believe he has the strong support of the Russian government, elites and people for these positions. Putting it another way, Putin can't give much or anything on these positions, even if he were inclined to.
So, what does Trump have to negotiate with? Yes, there are sanctions, which Russia 'might' be better off without, so there might be some play there. But, as many have said, Russia has learned to live with sanctions.
A second area of negotiation, which might prove fruitful, but fraught with difficulty, is the entire area of the Middle East. Its easy to say that Russia and Iran are now umbilically aligned, but there are many, many factors actually in play. I'll note a few. For one, Russia and Israel have shared constructive relations in the past, including the not-so-distant past. Thery are not intractable enemies. Turkiye is very much in play and a ME resolution will likely involve Turkish considerations. The Abraham Accords are back in the news, bringing back thoughts of a pan-Arabic peace with Israel which could then squeeze Iran. But Saudi Arabia is dancing with BRICS and BRICS is nothing if it is not a counter-force to Western Hegemony. And there is much more.
I'll go out on a limb and raise my bet to 3¢. Here's what might well happen. I think Trump will quietly have to give Putin pretty much everything he requires in Ukraine. However, in return Trump will ask Putin to support him in a very difficult (won't happen in 24 hours), but face-saving agreement in the Middle East where Trump brokers peace between Israel and Iran.
Trump has a real chance to do this, because, at the end of the day, notwithstanding AIPAC control of Congress and the power of the Irael Lobby, the US does in fact absolutely control the financial viability of Israel. He is, in fact, in a much stronger position with Israel than he is with Russia.
Then, there will come a day where Trump goes on global tv and announces that he has used his 'very stable genius' to 'persuade' Putin to support peace terms between Netanyahu and Pezeshkian and end the Middle East war. Hamas, Hezbollah and Lebanon will support this peace, as will the Arab countries. Aleksandr Lukashenko will then nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize which the Scandis will have to agree to award to him. It will be Trump's greatest day. His concessions in Ukraine will be quickly forgotten.
Putin, standing in the background, will quietly smile, knowing that he has prevailed, and saved the planet from WWIII.
Stefanik earned this job by leading a Congressional witch-hunt against college students who oppose genocide and the college presidents who declined to expel them:
Quote
Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins
News — Trump has offered Elise Stefanik the job as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, a source familiar tells CNN.
"Trump’s initial calls with world leaders are not being conducted with the support of the State Department and U.S. government interpreters. "
This is wise. Who knows who the Alexander Vindmans are who are waiting to tattle on Trump.
Trump will dictate no terms to Putin. The winning side sets the terms of the deal. Putin will not agree to a 20 year delay to Ukraine's NATO admission, or to giving up territory already occupied in the east. Trump can act tough now (at least publicly), but give Putin what Putin wants. Zelensky will be told the terms of the peace deal.
Macgregor will not be involved in any official capacity within the Trump administration because he is too much of an isolationist for Trump. Our foreign policy mischief and military adventurism will end just as they end with every empire (e.g. Great Britain), when budget constraints dictate better use for the money. We are broke. The lack of money is the forcing function to end all this.
“European peacekeepers along an 800-mile demilitarized zone.”
I’m pretty sure Putin would remember the last time someone tried this ended up in the Serbs being ethnically cleansed in Western Slavonia (Croatia).
UN troops demined the front, took heavy weapons in storage and a Croatian force commanded by ‘retired’ US specialist walked across the ‘demilitarised’ zone.
Okay, it’s cool to keep despising the evil USA and even more so the loathsome GOP. Unsurprised. this shit nation’s corruption is waaaay too deep and profound. they should just quit fucking around and put Netanyahu in charge. Cheering on endless war and contrived riots and “muh constitution” and “our greatest ally”….
This was reported in the WAPO. Since when do you believe that rag? WAPO also reported Pompeo and Haley in the running for cabinet offices. Don't think that is going to happen.
Did we really expect anything else? There really are no serious alternatives in the short term. We are in the shift into a new paradigm…but there is no agreement on what this will look like and consensus. All new culture leading to a new civilization and all new education, formation, leadership and elite training. We are not there yet. So we have what we have. The only people, at least in the US with the training and experience are globalists: US dominates. They don’t take Russia or China or India, etc., seriously as valid alternative civilizations or views on freedom, governance, morality, etc. There is no serious alternatives to Israel the “troubles.” And the US does not want any. We want Israel to he what we created it to be: our outpost in that part of the world. Globalism is still a thing in the US/West. Why? There is nothing else to seriously compete with it.
This will change: new attitudes and sensibilities regarding humans, but it’s going to be a generation or two or more for this to happen. There will be new elites in the West (the East does not have a dearth of elites and they have strategies to cultivate them), but right now we simply have more of the same. Make America Great Again is ambiguous on purpose. Think of Trump’s own formation in the 50s and 60s. Ike. But now an Ike for the 2020s.
What is interesting/important about Trump, is likely his 10 points for going after “the deep state.” Particularly, but not exclusively, #4. Imagine “going public” with all the dirty laundry of the last 65 years. Commissions. Trials. Seriously going after the DC bureaucracy.
Who replaces all of these people? It’s who we have. Might be a little less likely to get into a shooting war, but….
Two basic things about Trump to remember: he has many Jews in his family and circle (as well as a variety of Christians) and his children and grandchildren speak Mandarin. And he does not like the Brits (also a carryover from Ike) and he will bring in any Digital elite that will join him, thus all the focus on Space as countering the Russians and Chinese.
We will have a variation of Globalism, but in the new context of what is happening around the world (rise in spirituality and religion at the top).
This is a real head-scratcher. Why is Macgregor not involved in the transition??? Why is Trump so ill-informed??? Ukraine is (still) Biden’s mess, so why is Trump getting involved now???
Beyond frustrating. Just what many of us feared. Same ole Trump.
And while I’m at it, why does it take a twitter campaign to dissuade him from considering Bombeo and Neocon Nikki? What does it say that Trump couldn’t see through these people ON HIS OWN?
And I thought he had a smart transition team who would know who’s neocon and who’s America First. How the hell does someone like Brian Hook get inserted into this process?
Why is it a "huge achievement" that Trump spoke with Putin? It would be a "huge achievement" if for example Trump called Putin to apologize for approving 2 shipments of javelins to Ukraine to kill Russians. Or for welcoming Poroshenko to US in 2017. (Poroshenko spoke at West Point). Or for killing some Russian pilots in Syria who were there at the Syrian government's invitation. Or for bombing Syria twice. Or for complaining about Iran. It would be "a huge achievement" if Trump had called Putin to explain how he (Don) planned to have congress reverse its Aug 2017 law that removed all Russia matters from him and gave them to the Senate. Or how Don was going to get congress to reverse an Aug. 2017 law making a number of sanctions vs Russia permanent.
My take is Trump wanted to hear directly from Putin first before his upcoming White House discussion with Zhou. Positions Trump with data points from others and shows strength of negotiating position in my opinion. Best to be informed first hand.
He could just keep his mouth shut until he can be properly advised on the matter. It’s been clear throughout the campaign that he has a tenuous grasp (at best) of the Ukraine situation. I was hoping he was just posturing and speaking in vague terms for popular consumption. But no. He really is that ill-informed (or stupid?).
I can't argue against your conclusion, but it's not clear what you mean by properly advised. You and i are in better position to properly advise him than anyone in an official advisory role.
I watched Tucker Carlson interview Eldridge Colby ("national security expert). I wasn't sure about Colby, but I came away pleasantly surprised. I thought he was a big China hawk. Tucker obviously likes Colby. They talked about foreign policy. Neocons, war, diplomacy, our military, Russia, Ukraine, China. Very realist & reasonable point of view from Colby. I have the impression that Tucker having him on was a bit of a public job interview (something in national security perhaps?). Worth a watch - we may be hearing his name again.
https://youtu.be/PtsGqGc-Iuw?si=XAEvG3m4v8rpyYX2
I just did a post on that. I was also more or less pleasantly surprised at his moderated view. I took that to mean that he thought he needed to be more moderate to catch on with Trump 2.0.
It was the first time I’d ever heard him talk or seen him. I’d only seen a couple of tweets from him about Taiwan.. I thought he echoed some points I’ve heard Vance make in interviews.
Or, more likely, vice versa.
I read this post and skimmed the follow-up entry that the call may or may not've happened.
My thought is that we are in a transition period and disinformation, whether deliberate or well-intentioned speculation, is going to occur.
Trump will make some good decisions and some bad decisions. He most certainly is not perfect; he also isn't stupid. I am inclined to believe he knows who is enemies are (most of them). Taking a bullet to one's ear will do that for you.
Let's praise when appropriate and criticize when warranted.
Lets also take a deep breath when we read anything in the WAPO, NYT, ABC, CBC, NBC, et. al. Not 'trust but verify.' Don't trust until verified.
I say this with great respect for Mr. Wauck and all my fellow commenters.
Well said; I'm being cautiously optimistic while things unfold.
My 2¢.
Which is all I've got to offer and all it's worth.
Putin will not budge from his announced conditions. 'NATO' must withdraw from Ukraine. The 'Nazis' must be purged. A neutral Ukraine will not ever join NATO. Russia will keep eastern Ukraine.
He has been tricked by the West repeatedly in the past and it simply won't happen again.
I highly doubt there will be a 'ceasefire' or a 'freeze'. While a ceasefire or freeze could, theoretically, promote peace talks, they can also be a subterfuge for Ukrainian re-armament. Putin won't fall for this.
I don't believe Trump's 'trump card', of threatening escalation will move Putin. While moar war is not great from any kind of humanitarian perspective, I simply don't think Putin will be moved by threats of escalation.
And...consider whether Trump can actually deliver on this threat given the US budget situation, weapons depletion, global military commitments, domestic political climate and his own anti-endless war political rhetoric.
When I say Putin, this, and Putin, that, I believe he has the strong support of the Russian government, elites and people for these positions. Putting it another way, Putin can't give much or anything on these positions, even if he were inclined to.
So, what does Trump have to negotiate with? Yes, there are sanctions, which Russia 'might' be better off without, so there might be some play there. But, as many have said, Russia has learned to live with sanctions.
A second area of negotiation, which might prove fruitful, but fraught with difficulty, is the entire area of the Middle East. Its easy to say that Russia and Iran are now umbilically aligned, but there are many, many factors actually in play. I'll note a few. For one, Russia and Israel have shared constructive relations in the past, including the not-so-distant past. Thery are not intractable enemies. Turkiye is very much in play and a ME resolution will likely involve Turkish considerations. The Abraham Accords are back in the news, bringing back thoughts of a pan-Arabic peace with Israel which could then squeeze Iran. But Saudi Arabia is dancing with BRICS and BRICS is nothing if it is not a counter-force to Western Hegemony. And there is much more.
I'll go out on a limb and raise my bet to 3¢. Here's what might well happen. I think Trump will quietly have to give Putin pretty much everything he requires in Ukraine. However, in return Trump will ask Putin to support him in a very difficult (won't happen in 24 hours), but face-saving agreement in the Middle East where Trump brokers peace between Israel and Iran.
Trump has a real chance to do this, because, at the end of the day, notwithstanding AIPAC control of Congress and the power of the Irael Lobby, the US does in fact absolutely control the financial viability of Israel. He is, in fact, in a much stronger position with Israel than he is with Russia.
Then, there will come a day where Trump goes on global tv and announces that he has used his 'very stable genius' to 'persuade' Putin to support peace terms between Netanyahu and Pezeshkian and end the Middle East war. Hamas, Hezbollah and Lebanon will support this peace, as will the Arab countries. Aleksandr Lukashenko will then nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize which the Scandis will have to agree to award to him. It will be Trump's greatest day. His concessions in Ukraine will be quickly forgotten.
Putin, standing in the background, will quietly smile, knowing that he has prevailed, and saved the planet from WWIII.
This seems reasonable to me. Check out the new post.
More bad news:
Aaron Maté @aaronjmate
Stefanik earned this job by leading a Congressional witch-hunt against college students who oppose genocide and the college presidents who declined to expel them:
Quote
Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins
News — Trump has offered Elise Stefanik the job as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, a source familiar tells CNN.
With the gop house majority I doubt this.
Mea culpa - I was wrong. Seems a special election will be held.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-offers-elise-stefanik-u-n-ambassadorship
"Trump’s initial calls with world leaders are not being conducted with the support of the State Department and U.S. government interpreters. "
This is wise. Who knows who the Alexander Vindmans are who are waiting to tattle on Trump.
Trump will dictate no terms to Putin. The winning side sets the terms of the deal. Putin will not agree to a 20 year delay to Ukraine's NATO admission, or to giving up territory already occupied in the east. Trump can act tough now (at least publicly), but give Putin what Putin wants. Zelensky will be told the terms of the peace deal.
Macgregor will not be involved in any official capacity within the Trump administration because he is too much of an isolationist for Trump. Our foreign policy mischief and military adventurism will end just as they end with every empire (e.g. Great Britain), when budget constraints dictate better use for the money. We are broke. The lack of money is the forcing function to end all this.
“European peacekeepers along an 800-mile demilitarized zone.”
I’m pretty sure Putin would remember the last time someone tried this ended up in the Serbs being ethnically cleansed in Western Slavonia (Croatia).
UN troops demined the front, took heavy weapons in storage and a Croatian force commanded by ‘retired’ US specialist walked across the ‘demilitarised’ zone.
Okay, it’s cool to keep despising the evil USA and even more so the loathsome GOP. Unsurprised. this shit nation’s corruption is waaaay too deep and profound. they should just quit fucking around and put Netanyahu in charge. Cheering on endless war and contrived riots and “muh constitution” and “our greatest ally”….
This was reported in the WAPO. Since when do you believe that rag? WAPO also reported Pompeo and Haley in the running for cabinet offices. Don't think that is going to happen.
Did we really expect anything else? There really are no serious alternatives in the short term. We are in the shift into a new paradigm…but there is no agreement on what this will look like and consensus. All new culture leading to a new civilization and all new education, formation, leadership and elite training. We are not there yet. So we have what we have. The only people, at least in the US with the training and experience are globalists: US dominates. They don’t take Russia or China or India, etc., seriously as valid alternative civilizations or views on freedom, governance, morality, etc. There is no serious alternatives to Israel the “troubles.” And the US does not want any. We want Israel to he what we created it to be: our outpost in that part of the world. Globalism is still a thing in the US/West. Why? There is nothing else to seriously compete with it.
This will change: new attitudes and sensibilities regarding humans, but it’s going to be a generation or two or more for this to happen. There will be new elites in the West (the East does not have a dearth of elites and they have strategies to cultivate them), but right now we simply have more of the same. Make America Great Again is ambiguous on purpose. Think of Trump’s own formation in the 50s and 60s. Ike. But now an Ike for the 2020s.
What is interesting/important about Trump, is likely his 10 points for going after “the deep state.” Particularly, but not exclusively, #4. Imagine “going public” with all the dirty laundry of the last 65 years. Commissions. Trials. Seriously going after the DC bureaucracy.
Who replaces all of these people? It’s who we have. Might be a little less likely to get into a shooting war, but….
Two basic things about Trump to remember: he has many Jews in his family and circle (as well as a variety of Christians) and his children and grandchildren speak Mandarin. And he does not like the Brits (also a carryover from Ike) and he will bring in any Digital elite that will join him, thus all the focus on Space as countering the Russians and Chinese.
We will have a variation of Globalism, but in the new context of what is happening around the world (rise in spirituality and religion at the top).
This is a real head-scratcher. Why is Macgregor not involved in the transition??? Why is Trump so ill-informed??? Ukraine is (still) Biden’s mess, so why is Trump getting involved now???
Beyond frustrating. Just what many of us feared. Same ole Trump.
And while I’m at it, why does it take a twitter campaign to dissuade him from considering Bombeo and Neocon Nikki? What does it say that Trump couldn’t see through these people ON HIS OWN?
And I thought he had a smart transition team who would know who’s neocon and who’s America First. How the hell does someone like Brian Hook get inserted into this process?
I’m not sure there is anything else Trump can say before he becomes President.
I’m sure the nsa and/or fbi intercepted the call. Logan act? And a transcript has been spread throughout the executive branch.
The huge achievement is Trump spoke with Putin. The rest does not matter until after the inauguration.
Exactly. Fingers crossed.
Why is it a "huge achievement" that Trump spoke with Putin? It would be a "huge achievement" if for example Trump called Putin to apologize for approving 2 shipments of javelins to Ukraine to kill Russians. Or for welcoming Poroshenko to US in 2017. (Poroshenko spoke at West Point). Or for killing some Russian pilots in Syria who were there at the Syrian government's invitation. Or for bombing Syria twice. Or for complaining about Iran. It would be "a huge achievement" if Trump had called Putin to explain how he (Don) planned to have congress reverse its Aug 2017 law that removed all Russia matters from him and gave them to the Senate. Or how Don was going to get congress to reverse an Aug. 2017 law making a number of sanctions vs Russia permanent.
My take is Trump wanted to hear directly from Putin first before his upcoming White House discussion with Zhou. Positions Trump with data points from others and shows strength of negotiating position in my opinion. Best to be informed first hand.
He could just keep his mouth shut until he can be properly advised on the matter. It’s been clear throughout the campaign that he has a tenuous grasp (at best) of the Ukraine situation. I was hoping he was just posturing and speaking in vague terms for popular consumption. But no. He really is that ill-informed (or stupid?).
I can't argue against your conclusion, but it's not clear what you mean by properly advised. You and i are in better position to properly advise him than anyone in an official advisory role.
I cast my vote above.
Trump learned a lot by directly talking to Putin and Zelensky.
"Until he can be properly advised on the matter?" At this late date, I don't think "advisors" or lack of them is the problem.
Ugh. All of this could be neocon propaganda too. It smells like it.
Very perceptive.
I’m still too trusting, and have problems detecting lies.
Ray,
That's my problem, too.