Trump Has Already Started His Neocon Foreign Policy

Apparently he started it on Thursday when he called Vladimir Putin to discuss a Ukraine settlement. Reports are that Ukraine will be the main topic when Trump meets with Zhou on Tuesday. Doug Macgregor wouldn’t approve of this crash approach, which Trump raised during the campaign. Here’s Macgregor speaking to Danny Davis on Friday—coincidentally or not, the day after Trump spoke to Putin:

DM: Let's step back for a minute and consider president Trump's larger strategic approach, which I think is now emerging in the team that he's putting together. He said that he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and I think he's communicated that to Putin. He's also said that if Putin refuses to end the war, assuming on whatever terms are offered [by Trump], then he'll double down and support Ukraine--which I think is an unhealthy and ill-considered comment at this point. But this is part of the neocon approach. I don't know how that'll go, but I think his hope is that he can meet with Putin and that in doing so he's going to make an offer. I don't know if he'll say, 'We'll delay NATO membership for 20 years and in the interim Ukraine or what's left of it can be neutral,' is he going to quibble over territory? Is he going to offer to lift sanctions?

I think president Trump simply looks at this as a setting where he can, because of his unique attributes and talents, march in and "cut a deal." I'm not sure it's going to work that way. You've got to look at the battlefield right now from the Baltic all the way down to the Persian Gulf. Russia has won. That's not in dispute, and president Trump knows that. He also knows that going to war with Russia is something to be avoided. I'm glad he understands that. What he may not understand is that Russia is going to sit across from him and say, 'We've won the war. This is what we control. We're going to keep it, and if we don't get a settlement that makes Ukraine neutral, period, unconditionally, permanently'--because that's the precondition for peace from the Russian standpoint--'we will continue to move towards the Dnieper river and right up to Kiev.'

I think president Trump is going to go in there with some suggestions that I think are impossible. One is we want a free hand in the Middle East to do whatever we and the Israelis want to do. 'Please [Russia] get out of Iran.' Wrong. That's not going to happen. Secondly, we want Ukraine to be neutral but they ought to be able to do the following 10 things and perhaps neutrality only for 20 years. Wrong. Absolutely out of the question. And then the next question that Putin is going to ask is, 'When are you going to stop aiding the Ukrainians? When are you going to withdraw all of your forces inside Ukraine--that means all these Americans and Ukrainian uniformed Americans and whatever guys CIA, Army, Air Force whatever is there--when are you going to get them out?' If Trump says, 'Well if you'll sign up for this and this then we'll do that,' I don't think it'll work. I just don't think we have anything to offer. We'll lift sanctions, and the Russians aren't completely stupid. They know that sanctions have been imposed on them for years and they found a way around them, so their attitude may be, 'Fine, it doesn't make any difference to us whether you impose sanctions or not, we're not going to back down.’ I think it's a hugely difficult situation now.

I think Putin said the right thing: 'We're going to listen, we'll talk.' They would like to end all of these things, they would like good relations, but how do you get there unless the United States are first of all willing to treat Russia as a great power, treat it with respect, respect Russia's interests? We've never done that and that has to happen.

The Zerohedge account strongly suggests that this scenario above, as set out by Macgregor, is exactly what happened:

First Trump-Putin Call Since Election Focuses On The Quick 'Resolution Of Ukraine War'

President-elect Donald Trump is already moving quite fast on his goal to quickly bring to an end the Ukraine war. It has been revealed Sunday he held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin previously on Thursday, the first such communication between the two since Trump won the election.

Trump urged immediate de-escalation in the call with Putin. The Washington Post describes that "During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."

That sounds very much like Trump threatening Putin. IMO, that was a bad idea. When you threaten people like Putin, who holds so many high cards, you had better have a Plan B for when he calls your bluff. What’s Trump’s Plan B?

The WaPo explains that this is part of the reason Trump has been running a private transition out of Mar-a-Lago:

WaPo has also underscored that the Trump transition team is fearful of leaks at this point:

Trump’s initial calls with world leaders are not being conducted with the support of the State Department and U.S. government interpreters. The Trump transition team has yet to sign an agreement with the General Services Administration, a standard procedure for presidential transitions.

Trump and his aides are distrustful of career government officials following the leaked transcripts of presidential calls during his first term. "They are just calling [Trump] directly," one of the people familiar with the calls said.

Currently, the Zelensky government and some of the more hawkish leaders within NATO are deeply worried that the future Trump White House will force a 'bad deal' - or one that pressures Kiev to give up some 20% of his territory. They are against anything which the Kremlin could view as 'victory' for Russia.

One proposed plan, said to be getting the most attention from Trump's team, would see an indefinite 'freeze' on the front lines in the east, paving the way for immediate ceasefire, and enforced by European peacekeepers along an 800-mile demilitarized zone.

Peace would also be ensured by Ukraine agreeing to suspend its aspirations to join NATO for twenty years. This buffer zone would not involve any US troops, according to initial reports based on the description of Trump officials.

This is exactly the plan that the Neocons have been floating for the past 6 months or so. Bluff Russia into agreeing to surrender. I can’t see Putin agreeing to anything remotely like this. Arnaud Bertrand throws more cold water on hopes for a foreign policy change:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

I wouldn't want to tamper people's enthusiasm around this but Trump literally chose Pompeo's former senior policy advisor Brian Hook to run the State Department's transition team...

And it looks likely he'll name Bill Hagerty as Secretary of State, a senator who lists 2 of his main issues on his website as being "standing up to communist China" and "standing with Israel" (https://teamhagerty.com/the-issues/).

So it doesn't look even remotely likely that we're looking at a radical shift in US foreign policy. The most contentious figureheads might be cast aside for aesthetic purposes but the broad policy direction remains.