The Taiwan election was basically a defeat for the DPP. The TPP is picking up steam and will become stronger in the future. It is the party supported by professionals and voters 40 or under, so it is an emerging force. Originally the KMT and TPP tried to agree on a single presidential candidate in this election. If they had been rational and cool-headed, they would have won the presidential election hands down. But both parties ultimately refused to compromise, so they split the vote, and the DPP candidate won by default. Imho, the TPP should have agreed to support the KMT candidate, getting in return certain secondary advantages and receiving a promise to allow the TPP candidate to be the next mutual candidate after the current KMT candidate finished his term or terms. Even in the present situation, however, the DPP will have a hard time pushing independence, and their task will become harder every time a hawkish US pol goes to Taiwan and raises the specter of military conflict. More than 60% of Taiwanese opposed Pelosi's visit. They want peace and prosperity, not anxiety, uncertainty, and threats of war. The majority of Taiwanese want a continuation of the status quo, not independence, which would ruin the Taiwanese economy, which is intimately intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy. That's why mainland China plans to just wait. As far as I can see, it has no plan to invade Taiwan unless the ＵS tries to invade first and turn Taiwan into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" the way the Japanese once did. My guess is that in 20-30 years some sort of agreement under which Taiwan will control its internal affairs and mainland China will control Taiwan's foreign and military affairs will be worked out, and at that point mainland China will be so rich and full of lucrative business chances and promises of investments in Taiwan that a majority of Taiwanese will support this kind of loose or "soft" reunification. (Taiwan was only separated from the mainland because of Japanese imperialism in the late 19th century.) The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends." This is a matter of trust, and I think in the long run most Taiwanese know which country is most trustworthy -- and also which country shares the most mutual self-interest with Taiwan. In common English, they know very well which side their bread is buttered on.
What you're saying pretty much reflects my take--although I can't claim any deep understanding of Taiwanese politics. When I was working the "Taiwanese" that I encountered were largely either mainlanders or descended from mainlanders. One thing that confused me is that I was unable to find any firm TPP position on cross strait relations. I took that to reflect something like--maintain the status quo. I.e., basically anti-independence. As you say, Taiwanese of whatever political persuasion mostly understand that allowing themselves to be played by US politicians who care nothing for their welfare is a fool's game. In fact, the status quo works for the Mainland as well.
I was listening to John Mearsheimer yesterday, just a brief clip, but he was spouting his usual baffling line: the US should make up with Russia because China is the real enemy. While it certainly makes sense for the non-Chinese world to be able to resist Chinese pressure if need be, I don't see the logic in designating China the "enemy". Our real enemy is ourselves. China is not at fault for our misguided policies.
The Taiwan election was basically a defeat for the DPP. The TPP is picking up steam and will become stronger in the future. It is the party supported by professionals and voters 40 or under, so it is an emerging force. Originally the KMT and TPP tried to agree on a single presidential candidate in this election. If they had been rational and cool-headed, they would have won the presidential election hands down. But both parties ultimately refused to compromise, so they split the vote, and the DPP candidate won by default. Imho, the TPP should have agreed to support the KMT candidate, getting in return certain secondary advantages and receiving a promise to allow the TPP candidate to be the next mutual candidate after the current KMT candidate finished his term or terms. Even in the present situation, however, the DPP will have a hard time pushing independence, and their task will become harder every time a hawkish US pol goes to Taiwan and raises the specter of military conflict. More than 60% of Taiwanese opposed Pelosi's visit. They want peace and prosperity, not anxiety, uncertainty, and threats of war. The majority of Taiwanese want a continuation of the status quo, not independence, which would ruin the Taiwanese economy, which is intimately intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy. That's why mainland China plans to just wait. As far as I can see, it has no plan to invade Taiwan unless the ＵS tries to invade first and turn Taiwan into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" the way the Japanese once did. My guess is that in 20-30 years some sort of agreement under which Taiwan will control its internal affairs and mainland China will control Taiwan's foreign and military affairs will be worked out, and at that point mainland China will be so rich and full of lucrative business chances and promises of investments in Taiwan that a majority of Taiwanese will support this kind of loose or "soft" reunification. (Taiwan was only separated from the mainland because of Japanese imperialism in the late 19th century.) The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends." This is a matter of trust, and I think in the long run most Taiwanese know which country is most trustworthy -- and also which country shares the most mutual self-interest with Taiwan. In common English, they know very well which side their bread is buttered on.
"The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends.""
Most Americans probably don't understand the standpoint from which America is observed and judged by most of the rest of the world. As you say, this is a matter of trust.
It may be that the Vatican deliberately split the church with the blessing of homosexual unions to ‘syncretisize’ the church, creating the foundation for supra Vatican unions..
After all, if you can tolerate division within the church you can tolerate divisions outside the church.
Good read from Andrea Widburg at American Thinker. Interesting interview with Matthews regarding the manipulations of Milley leading up to and including the Fedsurrection.
May I always be the first to remind everyone that James Mattis contributed to the effort and it was pitch-perfect,
I know that this is off topic, but has anyone else read Andrea’s column at AT about the report that the Dems are trying to co-opt the military if DJT wins reelection? I mean if this is even marginally correct, we are completely into Banana Republic stuff!!
There were very clear signals from UK military that they simply wouldn't tolerate a Corbyn government. It might have been bluff to harvest the Conservative vote but I tend to think not, and would, if I were you, take these sorts of rumours very seriously. Let them know you know, etc.
My info is a bit out of date, since my wife has been in Taiwan for over a month.
And may be a bit biased. She listens basically to Taiwan’s version of gateway pundit.
The ex Taiwan mayor was originally part of the Green Party (the ruling party). Managed to upset everyone and is a bit autistic and created his own party. Has a huge ego. He was trying to out nationalist the Green Party for a while. I’m not sure which party he got more votes from.
Ruling party / green - trying to keep the status quo, while diversifying from China with a southern initiative. Candidate is vp to the current President that is seen as doing a good job on Covid and economy. Other Green Party candidates seem a very mixed bag, and are not for the most part the same caliber of the president and her vice president.
KMT / blue - candidate lacked charisma and was an attempt to get away from KMT’s historic baggage. Kmt has control of legacy media in Taiwan.
In the background:
- China launched a satellite that flew over Taiwan just before the election. A mass emergency alert was sent out to everyone in Taiwan via cell phone.
- Hong Kong - China is seen as cracking down on promised freedoms.
- COVID - huge anger in Taiwan, they believe the lab leak happened. They also endured sars. No awareness yet of side effects of the jab yet. Lots of people still masking.
- electricity issue. Green Party has an environmental history, so is anti nuclear and has plans to go renewable.
The Taiwan election was basically a defeat for the DPP. The TPP is picking up steam and will become stronger in the future. It is the party supported by professionals and voters 40 or under, so it is an emerging force. Originally the KMT and TPP tried to agree on a single presidential candidate in this election. If they had been rational and cool-headed, they would have won the presidential election hands down. But both parties ultimately refused to compromise, so they split the vote, and the DPP candidate won by default. Imho, the TPP should have agreed to support the KMT candidate, getting in return certain secondary advantages and receiving a promise to allow the TPP candidate to be the next mutual candidate after the current KMT candidate finished his term or terms. Even in the present situation, however, the DPP will have a hard time pushing independence, and their task will become harder every time a hawkish US pol goes to Taiwan and raises the specter of military conflict. More than 60% of Taiwanese opposed Pelosi's visit. They want peace and prosperity, not anxiety, uncertainty, and threats of war. The majority of Taiwanese want a continuation of the status quo, not independence, which would ruin the Taiwanese economy, which is intimately intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy. That's why mainland China plans to just wait. As far as I can see, it has no plan to invade Taiwan unless the ＵS tries to invade first and turn Taiwan into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" the way the Japanese once did. My guess is that in 20-30 years some sort of agreement under which Taiwan will control its internal affairs and mainland China will control Taiwan's foreign and military affairs will be worked out, and at that point mainland China will be so rich and full of lucrative business chances and promises of investments in Taiwan that a majority of Taiwanese will support this kind of loose or "soft" reunification. (Taiwan was only separated from the mainland because of Japanese imperialism in the late 19th century.) The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends." This is a matter of trust, and I think in the long run most Taiwanese know which country is most trustworthy -- and also which country shares the most mutual self-interest with Taiwan. In common English, they know very well which side their bread is buttered on.
What you're saying pretty much reflects my take--although I can't claim any deep understanding of Taiwanese politics. When I was working the "Taiwanese" that I encountered were largely either mainlanders or descended from mainlanders. One thing that confused me is that I was unable to find any firm TPP position on cross strait relations. I took that to reflect something like--maintain the status quo. I.e., basically anti-independence. As you say, Taiwanese of whatever political persuasion mostly understand that allowing themselves to be played by US politicians who care nothing for their welfare is a fool's game. In fact, the status quo works for the Mainland as well.
I was listening to John Mearsheimer yesterday, just a brief clip, but he was spouting his usual baffling line: the US should make up with Russia because China is the real enemy. While it certainly makes sense for the non-Chinese world to be able to resist Chinese pressure if need be, I don't see the logic in designating China the "enemy". Our real enemy is ourselves. China is not at fault for our misguided policies.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/taiwan-cross-strait-brinkmanship-to-continue/
Please allow me to repeat myself:
The Taiwan election was basically a defeat for the DPP. The TPP is picking up steam and will become stronger in the future. It is the party supported by professionals and voters 40 or under, so it is an emerging force. Originally the KMT and TPP tried to agree on a single presidential candidate in this election. If they had been rational and cool-headed, they would have won the presidential election hands down. But both parties ultimately refused to compromise, so they split the vote, and the DPP candidate won by default. Imho, the TPP should have agreed to support the KMT candidate, getting in return certain secondary advantages and receiving a promise to allow the TPP candidate to be the next mutual candidate after the current KMT candidate finished his term or terms. Even in the present situation, however, the DPP will have a hard time pushing independence, and their task will become harder every time a hawkish US pol goes to Taiwan and raises the specter of military conflict. More than 60% of Taiwanese opposed Pelosi's visit. They want peace and prosperity, not anxiety, uncertainty, and threats of war. The majority of Taiwanese want a continuation of the status quo, not independence, which would ruin the Taiwanese economy, which is intimately intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy. That's why mainland China plans to just wait. As far as I can see, it has no plan to invade Taiwan unless the ＵS tries to invade first and turn Taiwan into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" the way the Japanese once did. My guess is that in 20-30 years some sort of agreement under which Taiwan will control its internal affairs and mainland China will control Taiwan's foreign and military affairs will be worked out, and at that point mainland China will be so rich and full of lucrative business chances and promises of investments in Taiwan that a majority of Taiwanese will support this kind of loose or "soft" reunification. (Taiwan was only separated from the mainland because of Japanese imperialism in the late 19th century.) The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends." This is a matter of trust, and I think in the long run most Taiwanese know which country is most trustworthy -- and also which country shares the most mutual self-interest with Taiwan. In common English, they know very well which side their bread is buttered on.
"The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends.""
Most Americans probably don't understand the standpoint from which America is observed and judged by most of the rest of the world. As you say, this is a matter of trust.
It may be that the Vatican deliberately split the church with the blessing of homosexual unions to ‘syncretisize’ the church, creating the foundation for supra Vatican unions..
After all, if you can tolerate division within the church you can tolerate divisions outside the church.
Good read from Andrea Widburg at American Thinker. Interesting interview with Matthews regarding the manipulations of Milley leading up to and including the Fedsurrection.
May I always be the first to remind everyone that James Mattis contributed to the effort and it was pitch-perfect,
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/869262728/read-the-full-statement-from-jim-mattis
Mark: I’ve been told by a Vatican insider that the letter of the African bishops was approved by the Pope. Check with your brother.
I know that this is off topic, but has anyone else read Andrea’s column at AT about the report that the Dems are trying to co-opt the military if DJT wins reelection? I mean if this is even marginally correct, we are completely into Banana Republic stuff!!
There were very clear signals from UK military that they simply wouldn't tolerate a Corbyn government. It might have been bluff to harvest the Conservative vote but I tend to think not, and would, if I were you, take these sorts of rumours very seriously. Let them know you know, etc.
Yeah, it's breaking everywhere. I linked two above.
Took my breath away. Brazen just doesn’t seem strong enough!
Good one Mark. Also if you have time, read this. He was saying it from day one. Nobody listened.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-outlier-pm-fico-says-west-got-ukraine-all-wrong-futile-waste-human-resources-money
“But maybe the West should listen to the populist Slovak PM Fico.”
“Maybe???”
On Taiwan:
My info is a bit out of date, since my wife has been in Taiwan for over a month.
And may be a bit biased. She listens basically to Taiwan’s version of gateway pundit.
The ex Taiwan mayor was originally part of the Green Party (the ruling party). Managed to upset everyone and is a bit autistic and created his own party. Has a huge ego. He was trying to out nationalist the Green Party for a while. I’m not sure which party he got more votes from.
Ruling party / green - trying to keep the status quo, while diversifying from China with a southern initiative. Candidate is vp to the current President that is seen as doing a good job on Covid and economy. Other Green Party candidates seem a very mixed bag, and are not for the most part the same caliber of the president and her vice president.
KMT / blue - candidate lacked charisma and was an attempt to get away from KMT’s historic baggage. Kmt has control of legacy media in Taiwan.
In the background:
- China launched a satellite that flew over Taiwan just before the election. A mass emergency alert was sent out to everyone in Taiwan via cell phone.
- Hong Kong - China is seen as cracking down on promised freedoms.
- COVID - huge anger in Taiwan, they believe the lab leak happened. They also endured sars. No awareness yet of side effects of the jab yet. Lots of people still masking.
- electricity issue. Green Party has an environmental history, so is anti nuclear and has plans to go renewable.
Seems like a mess. Almost as dysfunctional as the US.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/01/14/nbc-admits-deep-state-exists-key-operative-mary-mccord/
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/01/lawmakers_and_others_are_secretly_plotting_a_military_mutiny_if_trump_is_elected.html
They actually put the previous Green Party President in Jail!