Generally speaking it appears that the rulers of the West are finding the road they’ve taken to be a bumpy one. The case regarding the Taiwan elections is particularly confusing. I won’t try to predict anything or explain much—except that the supposed defeat for China that is being reported by the MSM is almost certainly a simplistic view.
What happened? Basically, the fiercely pro-independence party (the DPP) won the presidency. However, in a three way race, the DPP only won 40% of the vote—not even a resounding plurality. The more or less “one China” party (the KMT) took 33%, and the rest went to a party (the TPP) whose geopolitical views are opaque to me. When I say this was less than a resounding plurality, here’s what I mean:
This marked the first time since the 2000 election that the winning candidate obtained less than 50% of the vote, and the first time that a party won more than two consecutive presidential elections since direct elections were introduced in 1996.
In other words, the DPP took a steep dive in the popular vote in the presidential election, but the KMT totally failed to take advantage.
In the legislative elections the results were no less inconclusive. On the one hand, the KMT—in sharp contrast to its lackluster showing in the presidential election—gained 14 seats, while the DPP lost 10 seats. But that only gave the KMT a one seat margin over the DPP, 52-51, while the TPP took 8 seats. I claim no particular knowledge of Taiwanese politics, but this looks very much like a deadlock—giving neither China nor the US any clear signals. China remains clear on the key point:
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
Taiwan is an integral part of our country and will not become a separate state; it will reunify with China
Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi.
9:27 AM · Jan 14, 2024
Meanwhile the US remains embroiled in a losing war against Russia and, not content with that and its warlike rhetoric directed at China, has embarked on a regional Middle East war that looks like an overall no-win proposition, at best. How the United States could possibly conduct a three front War on the World only a Neocon could explain. In particular, if the US continues its campaign against the Houthis the drawdown of air defense missiles could turn out to be game changing if matters ever came to a conflict regarding Taiwan (U.S. IS PAINTING ITSELF INTO A CORNER IN THE RED SEA). The Houthi leadership sums the situation up quite well:
Thank God our enemies are stupid.
This is the third day of airstrikes against Yemen. The Houthis continue their campaign against commercial shipping, not missing a beat.
Speaking of Russia, the Russian economy is now said to be the largest in Europe, surpassing Germany. This is measured in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rather than the misleading GDP. Sanctions appear to have done Russia a favor, just as Putin said. Sanctions have led Russia to expand and diversify their economy beyond the traditional money making energy sector.
Lastly, an update to a previous post regarding the chaos in the Vatican:
In December, soon after Fiducia Supplicans was published, Cardinal Ambongo of Kinshasa, president of the collective Symposium of Bishops' Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM), asked for contributions from the African churches for a collective response.,
The document was published today, and completely rejects the possibility of blessings of same-sex unions (couples, etc, it doesn't matter).
The document is available below (click for larger images):
The Vatican is Globalist occupied territory. This united stand by the leaders of the rapidly growing African churches is, in my view, a part of the growing pushback against the Globalist agenda more generally. It directly challenges the post Christian agenda of the West.
The Taiwan election was basically a defeat for the DPP. The TPP is picking up steam and will become stronger in the future. It is the party supported by professionals and voters 40 or under, so it is an emerging force. Originally the KMT and TPP tried to agree on a single presidential candidate in this election. If they had been rational and cool-headed, they would have won the presidential election hands down. But both parties ultimately refused to compromise, so they split the vote, and the DPP candidate won by default. Imho, the TPP should have agreed to support the KMT candidate, getting in return certain secondary advantages and receiving a promise to allow the TPP candidate to be the next mutual candidate after the current KMT candidate finished his term or terms. Even in the present situation, however, the DPP will have a hard time pushing independence, and their task will become harder every time a hawkish US pol goes to Taiwan and raises the specter of military conflict. More than 60% of Taiwanese opposed Pelosi's visit. They want peace and prosperity, not anxiety, uncertainty, and threats of war. The majority of Taiwanese want a continuation of the status quo, not independence, which would ruin the Taiwanese economy, which is intimately intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy. That's why mainland China plans to just wait. As far as I can see, it has no plan to invade Taiwan unless the US tries to invade first and turn Taiwan into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" the way the Japanese once did. My guess is that in 20-30 years some sort of agreement under which Taiwan will control its internal affairs and mainland China will control Taiwan's foreign and military affairs will be worked out, and at that point mainland China will be so rich and full of lucrative business chances and promises of investments in Taiwan that a majority of Taiwanese will support this kind of loose or "soft" reunification. (Taiwan was only separated from the mainland because of Japanese imperialism in the late 19th century.) The Taiwanese are highly educated and sophisticated, and they know full well about how mainland China doesn't have a history of breaking treaties with other countries and about how the US treats its so-called "friends." This is a matter of trust, and I think in the long run most Taiwanese know which country is most trustworthy -- and also which country shares the most mutual self-interest with Taiwan. In common English, they know very well which side their bread is buttered on.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/taiwan-cross-strait-brinkmanship-to-continue/