Last week we discussed Palestine: The Geopolitics Of Energy. An important aspect of that discussion was the reality that Palestine, for most of modern history, has not been an energy field—rather, it has been viewed as the terminus for multiple oil pipelines feeding across Arab and Pesian lands to the Mediterranean, for shipment to Europe. Before the British and French asserted themselves in the region it was the Turks—in the form of the Ottoman Empire—who dominated the region. The entry of Western powers as players in the Great Pipeline and Oil Game—Britain, France, Russia, America—came at the same time as the resurgence of the Arabs and Persians. Western dominance came at the expense of the Arabs and Persians, and included the establishment of a state of Israel in Palestine.
The Middle East in general has grown more self confident and assertive in recent decades, more inclined to demand their own say in their own future. Turkey, too, has experienced a resurgence of confident nationalism and a will, under Erdogan, to reassert its regional dominance. Critically, Turkey’s ambitions extend to the Levant (Syria and Lebanon), to northern Iraq (around the oil rich provinces of Mosul and Kirkuk), and across the Caucasus through Turkic Azerbaijan, across the Caspian Sea and over much of Central Asia—all Turkic areas. This has inevitably raised tensions with traditional rivals/enemies: Russia, Iran, and the Arabs.
Since Israel began its war on Gaza, Turkey’s Erdogan has been attempting to assert himself as leader of the Muslim world, with inflammatory speeches against Israel. Iran and the Arab country’s clearly do not welcome any Turkish leadership role in the region. It’s notable that immediately before Russia issued its attack on Erdogan, a Persian/Arab confab had taken place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Persians and Arabs are talking, but Turks were not welcome. And then Russia took out, in no uncertain terms, after Erdogan personally and Turkish revanchism by implication. Russia and Iran are clearly incensed with Turkish-Azerbaijanian-Israeli cooperation against Armenia, a traditional ally of both Russia and Iran.
A few maps may help illustrate how all these rivalries overlap national boundaries. First we see the Turkish Ottoman Empire in 1914. Not its control of present day Iraq, the eastern Mediterranean seacoast, and the entire Red Seas coast of present Saudi Arabia. All residents of these areas remain deeply suspicious of the Turks because the Turks came to the Middle East and Persia as brutal conquerors.
Next a map to illustrate the shape of “Greater Turkey”—Erdogan’s ambition to unite all Turkic countries under his leadership. This would interpose Greater Turkey between Russia and Iran, raising the twofold specter of a powerful Turkic region united on the basis of a vast supply of energy resources:
Lastly, a map of the Iranian language family, to illustrate that the Persian cultural world extends far beyond the borders of present day Iran. Also, please note that Kurdish (lime green to the left) is an Iranian language and, while a separate language, is actually fairly closely related to Farsi:
Keep an eye on these dynamics as the situation in Palestine develops. The rapprochement between Arabs and Persian is geopolitical dynamite—especially when combined with their membership with Russia and China (and India) in BRICS.
Again reverting to Zakharova’s remarkable attack on Erdogan, she also took out after the West. A week or so Dmitry Medvedev issued a sharply worded warning to Poland to rethink its hostility toward Russia. No Zakharova is warning the rest of the West that payback could be coming:
“Political games based on the blood and tears of other people's children turn into the blood and tears of your children. The same thing will happen to the Americans and to all European burghers."
Yes, she’s referring to Western support for Israel in its war on Palestinians, but it’s a far more general statement. And the West is definitely getting nervous and is trying to weasel its way out of the fix it finds itself in. They trained and equipped the Ukro-Nazis to strike inside Russia—the Russians know this. Now they fear the boomerang effect that Zakharova warned Erdogan about:
The West went to war with Russia in Ukraine and now they are “fearful”. You should have been wary of going to war with Russia. And now you need to save yourself.
"Relations between Ukrainian and Western intelligence services are deteriorating: the United States and Great Britain fear being directly drawn into the conflict," The Times writes.
"Washington and London are dissatisfied with the organization of terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation against politicians and journalists by the Ukrainian side," says British political scientist Mark Galeotti.
At the same time, Kiev does not share its plans with its allies and is not ready to change tactics, he notes. The US and Britain are afraid that Moscow will take “retaliatory measures” because they believe that “Ukrainians are doing what the West tells them.”
Earlier, WP wrote that over the past 20 months, the SBU and the Main Intelligence Directorate “committed dozens of murders” of supporters of the Russian Federation. Among the dead are Daria Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky. https://t.me/vicktop55/18319
Here’s an interesting exchange between two military commentators who will be familiar to readers. Ritter is a bit unfair to Macgregor as regards Mac’s intended meeting. OTOH, Ritter has a point in that, in the past, Macgregor has been a vocal supporter of Israel and the IDF. Wait—so was Ritter! We may need Alastair Crooke or Alexander Mercouris to referee this:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
We have gotten on this one way street that is a dead end. Either we kill all of the enemies of Israel that pop up over the wall or we fail and there is no future for us. Netanyahu has got us where he wants us. We are going to ride down the hill with him and the bottom is an Abyss.
With all due respect, Colonel, I’m an American. My future is tied only to America. Israel is not America. In fact, a solid case can be made that Israel is an enemy of America. I choose freedom. Being the compliant tool of Benjamin Netanyahu is not my definition of freedom.
Finally, a Jewish perspective on Zionism. This is from a two and a half year old, 16 tweet thread by Raphael Mimoun @RaphMim, May 12, 2021:
I grew up in a Zionist household, spent 12 years in a Zionist youth movement, lived 4 years in Israel, and have friends and family who served in the IDF. When that is your world, it's hard to see apartheid when it's happening.
I grew up in France, in a Jewish community where the norm was unconditional love and support for Israel. Zionism wasn't even named because that's all we knew. Jews were nearly wiped by pogroms and repeated holocausts, and a Jewish state was the only way to keep us safe.
All Zionism is rooted in trauma and fear. It is first and foremost an ideology of self-liberation. It's about love Jewish people, survival for Jewish people. But Zionism is like any other ethnic nationalism, it's about prioritizing *our* safety and well-being.
Like all nationalisms, we were fed a historical narrative completely divorced from reality: that Palestine was a largely uninhabited piece of desert before we settled it; that in 1948 Palestinians willingly left because they were making room for Arab armies to "throw Jews to the sea"; that Arab leaders turned down all Israeli and US peace offers and were unwilling to share the land; that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle-East; that despite terrorism, the IDF upholds the highest moral standards; so on and so on.
Yep, he knows all the talking points, can recite them in his sleep.
So the first reason that Israelis will never willingly make peace with Palestinians is that Israelis (and Zionist Jews around the world) live in a parallel world. They know alternate historical facts that feed more nationalism, militarism, and extremism.
The second reason is that the past 100 years of conflict have dehumanized Palestinians in the eyes of Israeli Jews. I mean this in a literal way: Israelis are not able to empathize with Palestinians, they aren't able to comprehend Palestinian suffering.
“Esau was an animal.”
So when the IDF bombs Gaza and kills children, the average Israelis thinks that 1) it is the Palestinians' fault--for not agreeing to peace, for continuing to threaten and attack Israel, etc 2) Israel is merely defending itself and that there is simply no alternative.
The same rationale justifies Gaza's open-air prison; military checkpoints in the West Bank; bulldozing homes; etc. Israelis even made up the term "Pallywood", because for them, it's all a show to turn the world against Israel. The suffering is either fake or self-inflicted.
Of course, there are some Israeli leftists and anti-Zionists who fight for Palestinian liberation. But it's a tiny, and shrinking, minority. Most Israelis don't consider what it means for Palestinian freedom, dignity, and physical well-being to be systematically erased.
Israel is, by every definition, an apartheid state: if a Jew and an Arab commit the exact same crime in the West Bank, they will face two different legal systems. The Jew will face a civil court, the Arab will face a military court. Two legal systems for two ethnic groups.
But Israelis can't fathom that this is unjust. When they fight against people calling the occupation of the West Bank "apartheid", it's because Israelis genuinely believe that it's all self-defense and needed and legitimate.
These two factors (alternate history and dehumanization) mean that it is *physically impossible*--and I mean that in the most literal way--for Israel to willingly end the occupation and agree to a just solution to the conflict. Peace cannot come from within Israel.
Israeli society is getting more extreme, more nationalistic, more violent, and more entrenched in its own historical narrative & its own self-victimization. At this point, it is simply delusional to expect that things change will come from Israel.
The *only* thing that can bring Palestinian liberation is if the cost of the occupation outweighs its benefits. And that requires, just like for the apartheids in South Africa and the US South, massive external pressure.
That means consumer boycott of Israeli goods, corporate boycott of Israeli technology, and sanctions by Israel's main trade partner and political supporters, the US and EU. Those are the only measures that can meaningfully push Israel toward ending the occupation.
"So the first reason that Israelis will never willingly make peace with Palestinians is that Israelis (and Zionist Jews around the world) live in a parallel world. They know alternate historical facts that feed more nationalism, militarism, and extremism."
We have the same situation in the United States. Leftists, with their alternate world, and the rest of us.
Turn on 'mainstream media', especially PBS and NPR. They still think Bull Connor turns the dogs loose, and the fire hydrants, against segregated blacks. They also divide men and women, LGBT and non-LGBT, Muslim and non-Muslim. It's still racist America and nothing has changed.
I'm gonna mess things up and throw some much needed "skin" to the PLO. This organization (since Arafat) has been steadily sliding downhill in terms of voice, leadership, direction. Abbas does nothing to advocate for his people and has been sidelined for some time. If they had a strong leader in the PLO I could see things much differently over the past 2 decades. Without strong leadership to engage in dialogue with Israel over their needs, make things visible, establish clear goals (civil vs. military trials) and allow the Palestinian people to be treated with more dignity and respect. This ship sailed now and I see it as the only way forward.