As I was saying yesterday, time is on Iran’s side. They can afford to play a cat and mouse game. Escalation dominance means that Iran has many options. I argued yesterday that public reactions from the US suggest that the US is desperate for Iran to do some sort of one and done, “proportionate”, retaliation against Israel for the attack on Iran’s diplomatic establishment. As it happens, the US reaction so far has been a strong argument
Pure speculation. N. appears to be leading the US into not merely some military complications but also a major economic crisis. I speculated that this could be push coming to shove when it comes to N.'s hold over US Neocons. Hope.
I quite agree with your analysis. Apart from the gulf states, I’m pretty sure both Xi and Putin have been on the blower to Khamenei to remind him that revenge is a dish best served cold.
If Jordan is just a Zionist project, then the whole thing is a tragic farce. The West Bank is in Jordan. This is what Israel has always been interested in, moreso than Gaza. I mean they gave Gaza to the Palestinians in 2005!
Set up a Palestinian state from Jordan, for goodness' sake.
In addition to this, Jordan has never really wanted to have to deal with the Palestinian population and has been steadfast in its refusal to take them in. They are restive, expensive to maintain, and potentially a political threat to the monarchy. He (Abdullah) would rather they stayed in the West Bank and that they remain Israel's problem.
 Powerful electronic warfare systems, like the 'Avtobaza-M' are being deployed in Tehran now.
The Avtobaza-M ELINT system is an advanced Russian electronic warfare system
It is designed for detection of pulse and continuous signals of air- and sea-based radars, identification signals, and TACAN systems signals, Determination of parameters of signals and types of radars, trajectory tracking of air- and seaborne objects by their electronic signature, as well as for data support of higher air defense command and control posts.
“The pressure is now on Israel and the US rather than Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians don’t act. But the die was first cast by Israel,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at John Hopkins University.
“And now people are trying to avoid what might be consequences.”
The costs of keeping the watch up and the weapons manned will over time become unbearable for Israel as well as for the U.S.
It is thus better for Iran to wait with any bigger retaliation it may plan to carry out.
"A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would increase global oil prices and jeopardize Biden's re-election." Given the importance of the transited oil to India, China, and the rest of Asia, I doubt there would be a full closure. I expect Iran will do the same as the Houthis and just hijack/attack Israeli owned ships and those carrying goods destined for Israel.
MW wrote: "Netanyahu still seems to call the shots in DC. **But that may be changing.**"
Tantalizing.
Changing HOW?
Pure speculation. N. appears to be leading the US into not merely some military complications but also a major economic crisis. I speculated that this could be push coming to shove when it comes to N.'s hold over US Neocons. Hope.
I quite agree with your analysis. Apart from the gulf states, I’m pretty sure both Xi and Putin have been on the blower to Khamenei to remind him that revenge is a dish best served cold.
If Jordan is just a Zionist project, then the whole thing is a tragic farce. The West Bank is in Jordan. This is what Israel has always been interested in, moreso than Gaza. I mean they gave Gaza to the Palestinians in 2005!
Set up a Palestinian state from Jordan, for goodness' sake.
Am I missing something?
Off the Gaza coastline is LNG and oil, I believe. Israel wants those scarce resources.
A good explanation: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/21/jordan-s-redline-on-admitting-palestinians-is-unlikely-to-change-pub-91077
In addition to this, Jordan has never really wanted to have to deal with the Palestinian population and has been steadfast in its refusal to take them in. They are restive, expensive to maintain, and potentially a political threat to the monarchy. He (Abdullah) would rather they stayed in the West Bank and that they remain Israel's problem.
Grrr. There must be an easier and better solution than WWIII.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Powerful electronic warfare systems, like the 'Avtobaza-M' are being deployed in Tehran now.
The Avtobaza-M ELINT system is an advanced Russian electronic warfare system
It is designed for detection of pulse and continuous signals of air- and sea-based radars, identification signals, and TACAN systems signals, Determination of parameters of signals and types of radars, trajectory tracking of air- and seaborne objects by their electronic signature, as well as for data support of higher air defense command and control posts.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/irans-retaliation-delay-keeps-pressure-on-us-and-israel.html
“The pressure is now on Israel and the US rather than Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians don’t act. But the die was first cast by Israel,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at John Hopkins University.
“And now people are trying to avoid what might be consequences.”
The costs of keeping the watch up and the weapons manned will over time become unbearable for Israel as well as for the U.S.
It is thus better for Iran to wait with any bigger retaliation it may plan to carry out.
"A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would increase global oil prices and jeopardize Biden's re-election." Given the importance of the transited oil to India, China, and the rest of Asia, I doubt there would be a full closure. I expect Iran will do the same as the Houthis and just hijack/attack Israeli owned ships and those carrying goods destined for Israel.
Isn't that the regime in effect in the Red Sea already?
Yep
https://twitter.com/Kahlissee/status/1778898508377915508
It's my understanding that olive trees take up to 50 years to grow and bear fruit.
This longstanding violation of Palestinian farmers has always been out of the park in psycho
behaviors IMO.
This is why I lost all support for Israel. Israel has to go.
It’s hard to believe human beings can be so evil 😢
I have no trouble believing that, FF.