Strait Of Hormuz Under Partial Blockade?
As I was saying yesterday, time is on Iran’s side. They can afford to play a cat and mouse game. Escalation dominance means that Iran has many options. I argued yesterday that public reactions from the US suggest that the US is desperate for Iran to do some sort of one and done, “proportionate”, retaliation against Israel for the attack on Iran’s diplomatic establishment. As it happens, the US reaction so far has been a strong argument to the Iranians that they should explore other options that would pose far more problematic situations for Israel and its US proxy. And so, while the US and Israel prepared for their preferred scenario, committing expensive to maintain forces, the Iranians have taken a different approach—for now.
Here’s what we know has happened:
Iran seized the Israeli ship MSC ARIES in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a big game changer. This once again is confirming that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade by land route from the UAE port. Iran is now cutting that route as well. If Hezbollah cut the Mediterranean route with its drones, Israel could fall into a complete trade blockade. http://t.me/megatron_ron
Having pressured Israel into a state of desperation, Iran is clearly in no hurry to put an end to that. Instead, the US—having failed to stop the Houthis and now seeing its “allies” peeling off from that fiasco—is committing already stretched resources for an unplanned for contingency.
Another consideration. That overland route? That’s truck traffic, and it hasn’t been able to make up for the loss of sea-borne traffic to Israel. What’s probably more important is that the seizure introduces new uncertainty into the huge amount of shipping that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It will likely raise insurance rates for that route, too, because no one will be sure what action Iran—or someone else—might take. This move strikes at Western supporters of Israel.
I’m going to guess that this scenario was also discussed at the conference among the Gulf States and Iran earlier in the week, after which the announcement was made that the US would be prohibited from using bases in Gulf countries for attacks on Iran.
Now comes some additional significant news:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
So Turkey also banned the US from using Turkish territory to attack Iran.
The USA remains to operate only from Jordan, which is a totally Zionist project.
Illegal US bases in Syria and Iraq are very vulnerable due to logistics and do not pose any particular threat to Iran.
Israel and Jordan are the only remaining territories where the US actually holds land in the Middle East.
3:28 AM · Apr 13, 2024
The Incirlik Base—which is located at approximately the middle bottom of the map, quite near to Syria—is very important for US force projection in the entire region. This seriously complicates logistics for the US.
All in all, Iran remains in control of events—which is obviously how they like matters to lie. The American Empire is being gradually restricted in its potential for action in the Middle East region, and by being forced to commit additional forces to the region that complicates US capabilities elsewhere around the world. Israel is being squeezed and isolated. No doubt all this was decided in consultation among the three nations that the Neocons have targeted for subjugation: Russia, China, and Iran. The Neocons are no match for them when it comes to thinking many moves ahead. The worrisome thing is that, for now, Netanyahu still seems to call the shots in DC. But that may be changing.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/irans-retaliation-delay-keeps-pressure-on-us-and-israel.html
“The pressure is now on Israel and the US rather than Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians don’t act. But the die was first cast by Israel,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at John Hopkins University.
“And now people are trying to avoid what might be consequences.”
The costs of keeping the watch up and the weapons manned will over time become unbearable for Israel as well as for the U.S.
It is thus better for Iran to wait with any bigger retaliation it may plan to carry out.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Powerful electronic warfare systems, like the 'Avtobaza-M' are being deployed in Tehran now.
The Avtobaza-M ELINT system is an advanced Russian electronic warfare system
It is designed for detection of pulse and continuous signals of air- and sea-based radars, identification signals, and TACAN systems signals, Determination of parameters of signals and types of radars, trajectory tracking of air- and seaborne objects by their electronic signature, as well as for data support of higher air defense command and control posts.