As previously noted, the Israeli murder in Teheran of a Palestinian diplomat who was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist president was clearly intended to spark a major regional war.
"This, too, explains why Russia has been so cautious up till now. However, all indications are that Russia is not going to back down in the Middle East. Russia, with its regional partners, has been preparing carefully."
Anybody have any guesses about Russia possibly having military capabilities/weapons hitherto unrevealed?
It seems like the smart play for Russia and Iran is to keep this at a boil as long as possible and not be the aggressor. If Russia can supply Iran with enough S400 and S500 Air Defense Systems it will make Iran almost impossible to defeat militarily, even by the U.S. and Israel combined. I don’t believe the American public will tolerate sending U.S. troops into a major Middle East war. At that point it becomes a waiting game and the U.S. and Israel will be forced to accept the new reality of a MultiPolar world. The big loser in this will be Israel. That’s why they are so desperate.
Bravo, Mark! Sadly, I couldn't agree more with what you say in every respect. Thanks very much for your well-reasoned analysis.
I saw this Zerohedge article as well and the first thing I thought was well you can write Egypt and Turkey off the list of allies. The governments of those countries are very likely adversarial to the desired actions of the current Israeli government. There are a number of reasons for this but they generally are in response to the need for these governments to maintain popularity and stability among their own populations. Egypt is in no position to accommodate Palestinian migration on the scale that Israel wants - socially or economically - and they have been refusing to do so thusfar. Turkey cannot abide the instability of Israel invading Lebanon and Syria (especially as regards the Kurds but also considering the negative response of its own population toward Israel. They are already up against it for continuing to provide Israel with oil.
All in all it does not look promising for Israel or for the U.S. if we continue to support their current policies.
True. IMO, Turkey might do so depending on the circumstances in Syria but Egypt won't reflexively do so because it just doesn't have the military capability and it is under western economic leverage. The thing is, Egypt has a degree of economic control via the Suez canal and it also may be helped by the BRICS to get out from under its IMF loans. So, the possibility for resistance against Israel (economically at least) does exist for them, too.
I agree with this take, desperate as it may be. When I read that ZH article I thought the alliances laid out seem shaky, but now that I read your response there is a logic to it. Maybe just maybe demonstrating the ruthlessness of the empire once again will slow the drift of KSA and Turkey into BRICS and the full security alliance that no one / everyone knows is coming. Israel is a convenient pretext, flimsy as it may be, for doubling down yet again. Peace is the enemy of the empire, and forcing a choosing of sides right now while there’s still a strong contingent of western operatives and comprador in Egypt, KSA, UAE, and even Turkey does make sense. Give BRICS a few more years and the choice to abandon the west will be far easier. You know what they say about desperate times...
I can’t see how this doesn’t play right into Russia and China’s hands though. Watching Iran and Russia stick it to the US is going to capture the hearts of every person who has ever witnessed the brutality and smug hypocrisy of the west come down on their families. And that’s a shit ton of people.
Turkey (Erdogan) has always played both sides of the fence. Who should he trust more now (like 60-40)? Should he trust Biden or Kamala... or Putin? KSA and UAE can also see which way the wind is blowing. They are not going to commit to the U.S. - at least not with Genocide Joe or Kamala in charge. I will agree wholeheartedly with your last paragraph though!
Revenge is a dish best served cold - not, in this case, kinetically, with shock/awe/whizz-bang that some understandably want. Let those itchy nuclear trigger-fingers itch!
Great insight that anglozionism can’t survive multipolarity! Thanks.
"This, too, explains why Russia has been so cautious up till now. However, all indications are that Russia is not going to back down in the Middle East. Russia, with its regional partners, has been preparing carefully."
Anybody have any guesses about Russia possibly having military capabilities/weapons hitherto unrevealed?
How many times have we heard this over the last 10 mos.? Israel can't do this without the US, and even then ...
Plus, politics in the US are no longer conducive to wars of choice.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Israel is preparing for a pre-emptive attack on Lebanon
Israel's Channel 12 reports that the military is in advanced preparation for possible pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah targets
1. Iron Dome isn't terribly effective;
2. It's what they've got, but it's being used faster than it can be replaced.
3. All these mos. they've been yacking about how 'tomorrow we attack Hezbollah' but it doesn't happen.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Israel is short on ammo
Israel is suffering from a shortage of ammunition needed to repel an expected major attack from Iran and Hezbollah - Politico
* It appears that Hezbollah has been firing cheap rockets for months and has depleted Israel's stockpile of Iron Dome ammunition.
Turkey is in an interesting position.
The US seems to have Turkey by the proverbials over the Zangezur Corridor. If it doesn’t ball the US will revoke the deal.
Interestingly Trump couldn’t extradite Gulen which means the Neocons have a ball in each court, the Kemalists aren’t a spent force by any means.
If the Israel and Iran conflict gets serious I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey and Azerbaijan invade Armenia and take the corridor by force.
It seems like the smart play for Russia and Iran is to keep this at a boil as long as possible and not be the aggressor. If Russia can supply Iran with enough S400 and S500 Air Defense Systems it will make Iran almost impossible to defeat militarily, even by the U.S. and Israel combined. I don’t believe the American public will tolerate sending U.S. troops into a major Middle East war. At that point it becomes a waiting game and the U.S. and Israel will be forced to accept the new reality of a MultiPolar world. The big loser in this will be Israel. That’s why they are so desperate.
This is my hope.
Bravo, Mark! Sadly, I couldn't agree more with what you say in every respect. Thanks very much for your well-reasoned analysis.
I saw this Zerohedge article as well and the first thing I thought was well you can write Egypt and Turkey off the list of allies. The governments of those countries are very likely adversarial to the desired actions of the current Israeli government. There are a number of reasons for this but they generally are in response to the need for these governments to maintain popularity and stability among their own populations. Egypt is in no position to accommodate Palestinian migration on the scale that Israel wants - socially or economically - and they have been refusing to do so thusfar. Turkey cannot abide the instability of Israel invading Lebanon and Syria (especially as regards the Kurds but also considering the negative response of its own population toward Israel. They are already up against it for continuing to provide Israel with oil.
All in all it does not look promising for Israel or for the U.S. if we continue to support their current policies.
Yes. What are the chances that Turkey or Egypt actually act against Israel. That would be an actual surprise!
True. IMO, Turkey might do so depending on the circumstances in Syria but Egypt won't reflexively do so because it just doesn't have the military capability and it is under western economic leverage. The thing is, Egypt has a degree of economic control via the Suez canal and it also may be helped by the BRICS to get out from under its IMF loans. So, the possibility for resistance against Israel (economically at least) does exist for them, too.
I agree with this take, desperate as it may be. When I read that ZH article I thought the alliances laid out seem shaky, but now that I read your response there is a logic to it. Maybe just maybe demonstrating the ruthlessness of the empire once again will slow the drift of KSA and Turkey into BRICS and the full security alliance that no one / everyone knows is coming. Israel is a convenient pretext, flimsy as it may be, for doubling down yet again. Peace is the enemy of the empire, and forcing a choosing of sides right now while there’s still a strong contingent of western operatives and comprador in Egypt, KSA, UAE, and even Turkey does make sense. Give BRICS a few more years and the choice to abandon the west will be far easier. You know what they say about desperate times...
I can’t see how this doesn’t play right into Russia and China’s hands though. Watching Iran and Russia stick it to the US is going to capture the hearts of every person who has ever witnessed the brutality and smug hypocrisy of the west come down on their families. And that’s a shit ton of people.
Turkey (Erdogan) has always played both sides of the fence. Who should he trust more now (like 60-40)? Should he trust Biden or Kamala... or Putin? KSA and UAE can also see which way the wind is blowing. They are not going to commit to the U.S. - at least not with Genocide Joe or Kamala in charge. I will agree wholeheartedly with your last paragraph though!
Yes, I believe this is what's going on. At best they're fence sitters. They have so much to lose.
Revenge is a dish best served cold - not, in this case, kinetically, with shock/awe/whizz-bang that some understandably want. Let those itchy nuclear trigger-fingers itch!
Great insight that anglozionism can’t survive multipolarity! Thanks.
That certainly puts these events in a clearer context. The US can survive it. The empire can’t, and Israel is the literal tip of the empire’s spear.
Iran could directly attack Israel.
Or it could target U.S. bases in the area using proxies.
While issuing threats.
That keeps the uncertainty that is causing economic damage high.