Still Waiting, Still Thinking About WW3

As previously noted, the Israeli murder in Teheran of a Palestinian diplomat who was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist president was clearly intended to spark a major regional war. The idea was to provoke Iran into lashing out in a major way that could provide a rationale for a major war against Iran. No war on Iran can proceed without US participation, and the US cannot proceed without some cover that the American public would accept. A simple war of choice heading into the election season isn’t doable at this point. But rather than indulging in a snap response, Iran is playing a waiting game—conducting regional diplomacy, consulting with Russia and China and its regional allies, and waging economic war. Megatron provides a good summary:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 The waiting by Iran and keeping the region under high pressure is the first blow to Israel which is financial.

A huge drop in the stock markets yesterday around the world, not to mention the Israeli stock market and economy.

Israel is under severe pressure and suffering heavy economic losses. No sane person invests money in an Israeli company that could be blown to pieces tomorrow.

Fear and uncertainty are also affecting their home businesses.

Flights are canceled, shipping is reduced, import-export is down, a large part of the population is looking for a way to get out of the country at least until the situation calms down.

The north of the country is paralyzed, the south at Eilat is bankrupt. All this will fall on the back of the USA, which will have to prepare a new aid package.

That is why both Iran and Hezbollah continue to issue only threats to the public. It suits them. Israeli media announced yesterday that Israeli officials are considering launching an attack before giving Iran a chance to do so. The wait brings them a big financial blow.

Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah also just announced that waiting for response is a part of 'psychological and economic warfare against the Zionists.'

Maintaining the level of readiness that the US is doing also entails heavy costs—on personnel, equipment, supply chains. Meanwhile the Axis of Resistance prepares.

In the past I’ve set forth my views regarding the dependence of the Zionist Project on US global hegemony. Simply put, Israel cannot survive in its current form—much less achieve regional Jewish supremacy—without the US global hegemony. It’s not enough for the US to be a regional hegemon, say, in the Americas. The US needs, for Israel and the Zionist Project, to be able to project overwhelming power on a global scale. This explains why the Neocons are so all in with regard to subjugating both Russia and China, why Israel has been engaged in the war on Russia. A multi-polar world, as we see emerging with BRICS, would be the death knell for the Zionist Project.

In Waiting For Iran I returned to that theme:

… this attack on Iran by the Anglo-Zionist Empire was, indeed, designed to cause a major regional war in the Middle East. This was the Anglo-Zionist attempt to open a new front on its war on Russia, given that the Ukraine front is imploding and resulting in a huge NATO defeat. Iran happens to be a lynchpin for Russia’s long term economic and trade strategy and for the future of BRICS—which is a dagger pressed up against the heart of the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Iran lies at the center of the most immediately operational new international trade routes being set up, linking Asia with European Russia. And beyond. Once fully operational, the new trade arrangements will inexorably break Europe away from the Anglo-Zionist Empire and will also draw in Africa with its resources.

These are desperate times for the Anglo-Zionist Empire, and blowing up the Middle East is definitely a desperate measure. The economic, military, and geopolitical consequences are well nigh incalculable. If anything is certain in war, it’s that nothing ever goes exactly according to plan. That an infallible plan can be formulated and perfectly carried out is simply a Neocon fantasy.

So what’s the plan? The scale of the provocation against Iran was pretty much off the charts. Supposedly the US is attempting to persuade Iran to make its response “symbolic”, but that Iran isn’t returning the calls. The provocation was too extreme for Iran to engage in further such games. This is probably the meaning of the Jordanian foreign minister’s visit to Teheran—the first time in something like two decades that the US has allowed such a visit by its Jordanian puppet regime. It’s probably a cover for the US to claim that it attempted “diplomacy”. The scale and speed of the US military build up in the region gives the lie to that, however. If the ploy works, it would be a huge climb down for Iran, and an acknowledgement that Israel has its boot on Iran’s neck. Mission accomplished. But in the more likely event that that ploy doesn’t work, the Anglo-Zionists sound like they’re ready to attack Iran and absorb heavy losses in order to break apart the BRICS juggernaut and its growing influence throughout the Middle East.

This afternoon Zerohedge republished a very smart article that also goes into this scenario, from a very similar standpoint—like me, he sees this building war on Iran as actually aimed at breaking BRICS. My only quibble with the author is his assessment of certain regional countries, including Turkey, as “allies” of the US. I think that characterization needs significant qualification—the relationship of our regional “allies” just isn’t that simple or solid. However, the major thesis is very sound and well expressed. The author assesses all the major players and comes out in the end on the side of a BRICS victory. Follow the link for the full assessments. Here I’ll paste in the intro and summary:

World War 3's Decisive Battle

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

As I’ve discussed recently, I believe proxy wars will determine who wins WW3 and gets to shape the new world order.

There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.

However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The others are peripheral in comparison.

I think it’s clear the proxy wars in Ukraine and Taiwan are likely to end in favor of BRICS+.

That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East.

…

NATO & Friends are not in a weak position in the Middle East. They have nuclear weapons, advanced militaries, ...

That being said, when you take a step back and put it all together, it is clear that the geopolitical momentum is with the Axis of Resistance, which is eroding the power and influence of NATO & Friends in the Middle East.

The situation is trending in favor of the Axis of Resistance and BRICS+. If those trends continue—and I think they will—sooner or later, NATO & Friends must make a fateful decision.

They can either cede the region to BRICS+, which would seal the creation of a multipolar world order, or launch a full-scale war with the Axis of Resistance as a last-ditch Hail Mary attempt to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order.

There is no guarantee that NATO & Friends would win such a war. I think it’s likely it would end in disaster for them. That’s probably a big reason it hasn’t happened yet, despite no shortage of hostile intentions.

However, if NATO & Friends feel the sun is about to set on the US-led unipolar world order, they may go for it anyway. That would require them to take a bad hand and double down in a desperate attempt to get even. They may do so if they have nothing to lose, but I doubt it will change the ultimate outcome.

The situation is fluid and volatile. It’s impossible to quantify the conflict precisely.

That being said, when you put everything together, I think there is a good chance that BRICS+ will prevail in the three key proxy wars of WW3—Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East.

The main implication is that we’re likely to see the end of the unipolar world order and the emergence of a multipolar world order.

As I’ve argued repeatedly, what we’re seeing is a strategy that’s been in the works since the end of the Cold War, but which switched into high gear around 2008 with the decision to make Ukraine the focal point for the subjugation and pillaging of Russia, followed by the subjugation of China. The war on Russia, which was supposed to be crushed by sanctions, has turned into a complete disaster. It has also driven China, Iran, and North Korea into military partnerships with Russia. The war on Russia has also demonstrated to the world Russia’s fundamental strengths and resiliance, with the result that, far from isolating Russia and China, BRICS is going from strength to strength as the US slides into recession and political turmoil.

The attempt of the Anglo-Zionist Empire to attack Russia and break BRICS via a regional war in the Middle East is likely to backfire in the long run. The attraction for the Neocons in this strategy is that, while the US military facing enormous logistical difficulties in coming to grips with Russia, there is still a hope that the web of US regional bases and the accessibility of seapower to the region could turn the tables on a Russia that is still occupied in Ukraine. This, I believe, is the calculation. This, too, explains why Russia has been so cautious up till now. However, all indications are that Russia is not going to back down in the Middle East. Russia, with its regional partners, has been preparing carefully.