In between errands today I listened to an excellent interview with Scott Ritter: INTERVIEW: Scott Ritter - Iran vs Israel: What’s Next? Obviously, Scott gets into the various possible scenarios going forward, especially what form any Israeli “retaliation” might take.
Did you ever see the episode of "Seinfeld" where Jerry attends a hockey game and realizes that everyone's just rooting for laundry? Ya, kind of like that. Cheer for team blue or team red, it's just a game. That's why everyone loves the Zamboni.
I would argue that as practicality has closed in on Anglosphere imperial ambitions--which do focus on Mackinder's Eurasian land mass--the goal that is seen as somehow attainable is to prevent the rise of a true multipolar world. To prevent the rise of power poles that cannot be dominated/controlled. Access to and development of resources is key. This is the reasoning behind Western attempts to lock up the Sahel region--which also appear to be coming a cropper.
With regard to Russia. I can't write about everything. Rybar recently had a fascinating piece about US attempts to hinder Russian development of Russia's own energy resources and gaining revenue thereby. It sounds crazy, but it's real:
Our activity in the Caucasus has deep roots in past history of the French and British, including after WW1. In our own time our Deep States have been active throughout the region, seeking to destabilize Russia--Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. Same goes for attempted regime changes in Central Asian former republics of the USSR.
Re Iran, I long ago (2003) argued that the GWOT was largely about taking control of Central Asian energy and its flow to Europe through the Caucasus. That control was to be exercised through major bases across the region. We gave up on Afghanistan finally, but were there for a long time. We're still in Iraq and Syria, still have Turkish bases, still have major naval presences in the Indian Ocean. Iran's focus on missile development is patently about breaking our encirclement--which is intended to exercise control absent boots on the ground.
1. Israel has attacked Iran confirmed by US officials
2. So far only small drones have been reported to have struck Iran according to Iranian strikes
3. Iran claims to have shot down 100% of said drones
(1/2)
4. My opinion is this is a strike prior to a "main strike" to detect Iranian radar and air defense systems.
5. This strike seems to be extremely small in scale. Either Israel is planning a 2nd larger strike or Israel is just launching a mini attack to avoid escalation.
 CNN, about an American official: We understood from Israeli officials that they will not target any Iranian nuclear facilities
War Intel @warintel4u
·
11m
"A well-placed military source has told Fox that the [Israeli] strike was 'limited.'"
BNO News @BNONews
·
13m
Iranian official: "There's been no airstrike in Isfahan or other parts of the country. They only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters, and they were all shot down."
So now Israel is bombing Iran, so much for the “holding off hypothesis”. Gee, and I thought “Don’t” was such a stunning geopolitical idea. Think I’ll go see if there’s any chocolate chip ice cream in the freezer.
So, the obvious question is, does a n y o n e in the Biden Administration realize how totally screwed we are? All their delusional, fantasyland notions about how things work in the real world just came crashing down on their heads. All of this empty posturing has been revealed to be what it truly is, just hot air and as the old saying goes, “ there’s no there, there “.
Well, at least we have an ice cream eating buffoon who doesn’t know what century he’s in play acting as POTUS, so we’ve got that going for us.
Why do I have a sinking feeling that the country is doomed?
SMH, bombing Iran has been an obsession with US elites for decades. Not for any reason, just a good excuse to bleed US taxpayers and redraw Middle East boundaries. To elites, Iran=Syria=Russia, all the same, all must be flattened and new boundaries drawn. They thought for sure they could get Obama to do it. And why not? Massive US military bureaucracy, many strutting around with gold bars on their jackets, some appearing nightly on tv news. For what? Unless they can bomb someone, there's no reason for them to be on tv. During JFK admin, Pentagon brass was desperate to bomb the Soviet Union, hated JFK for not doing it, one even went over and started a battle in Berlin. In 1963 JFK was sure the Pentagon was going to remove him from office. The Pentagon should be closed. Nuland's leaving only made neocons stronger.
Would that it were only a Game of Drones…hopefully Iran stays cool and doesn’t indulge Israel’s mad folly by responding…L Johnson this morning is quite pessimistic though…
This is the first report I've seen or heard of that said Iran hit some targets. Everything I saw the day after said no targets were hit. Granted, I didn't think about it too much because it was also said Iran announced ahead of time they were going to do something. Iran was already justified in attacking US or US targets because of Stuxnet in 2009-2010. Michael Hayden even said at the time that the attack on Iran's nuclear labs carried great risk of response from Iran.
I have only seen this idea alluded to , but not really commentated on in depth. Here it is, by Scott Ritter in passing.....
" Adding to the capability and lethality of the US-Israeli ballistic missile defense architecture was the presence of at least two US Navy ballistic missile defense (BMD) system-capable Aegis-class destroyers equipped with the SPY-1 S band radar and SM-3/SM-6 interceptor missiles. The Navy BMD-capable ships are configured to tie into the ground-based AN/TPY-2 X band radar as well as the broader BMD system through the Command and Control, Battle management, and Communications (C2BMC) system. The combination of ground-based radars and interceptors with the US Navy BMD system provides US military commanders with theater-wide protection from hostile ballistic missile threats. This integrated system is designed to detect, acquire, and track incoming threats and, using complex computer-drive algorithms, discriminate targets and destroy them using hit-to-kill kinetic warheads (i.e., a “bullet hitting a bullet”).
On April 13-14, 2023, this system failed. In short, the combination of US and Israeli anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities deployed in and around the Negev desert made the Israeli air bases located there the most protected locations in the world from threats posed by ballistic missiles."
Does everyone understand the Ramifications of this information? NO? Well here it is.
For years we were told, and the Pentagon constantly reminded everyone, that the Aegis Missile Defense system was the Premier ADA system in the world. Nothing could defeat it. Because of the Aegis, US Aircraft Carriers were invulnerable due to the sophisticated and comprehensive ADA bubble created by escort ships and the Aegis system in combination with phalanx and associated ADA radar systems.
For us as servicemen, this was accepted as a matter of course. It assured us dominance of the air and provided protection for ship to shore ground units.
So if the Aegis is not the vaunted deterrent it once was, then the United States as a Real BIG Problem. Its Aircraft Carriers are now vulnerable and so is the rest of the fleet. In a battle with a near peer or peer enemy, how are you going to steam to the South China Sea or to the Med
and make it there in one piece? The answer is, that most likely, you are not.
This is an item (if true) that needs to have the "blinding light of notice" shined on it, so it can be discussed and we as a country figure out the brutal question of: "What are we going to do now?" Now, that the world has changed.
Count on it--there are people scrambling to find a solution--ANY solution, including short term--for this. The rest of the world, including the people whose chains we've been yanking, won't be waiting for us to figure something out.
OT, but would someone please tell me what the hell is with Mike Johnson? Is every Republican in DC a closet Democrat??
Talk about taxation without representation, if this isn’t it then I guess I don’t know what it looks like.
Did you ever see the episode of "Seinfeld" where Jerry attends a hockey game and realizes that everyone's just rooting for laundry? Ya, kind of like that. Cheer for team blue or team red, it's just a game. That's why everyone loves the Zamboni.
US given advanced warning = US gave advanced approval.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --
@GeromanAT
·
2m
It was so far a face saving PR attack with some drones probably launched from locations inside or near Iran.
Some say Azerbaijan - others say Iraqi Kurdistan.
Both sides reported is as "limited attack" - for sure to prevent further escalations.
You are on target.
I would argue that as practicality has closed in on Anglosphere imperial ambitions--which do focus on Mackinder's Eurasian land mass--the goal that is seen as somehow attainable is to prevent the rise of a true multipolar world. To prevent the rise of power poles that cannot be dominated/controlled. Access to and development of resources is key. This is the reasoning behind Western attempts to lock up the Sahel region--which also appear to be coming a cropper.
With regard to Russia. I can't write about everything. Rybar recently had a fascinating piece about US attempts to hinder Russian development of Russia's own energy resources and gaining revenue thereby. It sounds crazy, but it's real:
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1778406798057234605
Our activity in the Caucasus has deep roots in past history of the French and British, including after WW1. In our own time our Deep States have been active throughout the region, seeking to destabilize Russia--Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. Same goes for attempted regime changes in Central Asian former republics of the USSR.
Re Iran, I long ago (2003) argued that the GWOT was largely about taking control of Central Asian energy and its flow to Europe through the Caucasus. That control was to be exercised through major bases across the region. We gave up on Afghanistan finally, but were there for a long time. We're still in Iraq and Syria, still have Turkish bases, still have major naval presences in the Indian Ocean. Iran's focus on missile development is patently about breaking our encirclement--which is intended to exercise control absent boots on the ground.
Weeb Union @WeebUnionWar
·
3m
What we know so far.
1. Israel has attacked Iran confirmed by US officials
2. So far only small drones have been reported to have struck Iran according to Iranian strikes
3. Iran claims to have shot down 100% of said drones
(1/2)
4. My opinion is this is a strike prior to a "main strike" to detect Iranian radar and air defense systems.
5. This strike seems to be extremely small in scale. Either Israel is planning a 2nd larger strike or Israel is just launching a mini attack to avoid escalation.
(2/2)
My own guess is that so far this is to small to be much of a probe.
dana @dana916
·
11m
 CNN, about an American official: We understood from Israeli officials that they will not target any Iranian nuclear facilities
War Intel @warintel4u
·
11m
"A well-placed military source has told Fox that the [Israeli] strike was 'limited.'"
BNO News @BNONews
·
13m
Iranian official: "There's been no airstrike in Isfahan or other parts of the country. They only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters, and they were all shot down."
So now Israel is bombing Iran, so much for the “holding off hypothesis”. Gee, and I thought “Don’t” was such a stunning geopolitical idea. Think I’ll go see if there’s any chocolate chip ice cream in the freezer.
I see speculation that a drone strike via Azerbaijan is what happened in Iran. Iran has claimed they shot down 9 suicide drones.
War Intel @warintel4u
·
8m
American officials: 9 sites in Iran were attacked
Officials in Iran: No explosions occurred on the ground.
There is also speculation that UAVs could have been launched from inside Iran.
So, the obvious question is, does a n y o n e in the Biden Administration realize how totally screwed we are? All their delusional, fantasyland notions about how things work in the real world just came crashing down on their heads. All of this empty posturing has been revealed to be what it truly is, just hot air and as the old saying goes, “ there’s no there, there “.
Well, at least we have an ice cream eating buffoon who doesn’t know what century he’s in play acting as POTUS, so we’ve got that going for us.
Why do I have a sinking feeling that the country is doomed?
SMH, bombing Iran has been an obsession with US elites for decades. Not for any reason, just a good excuse to bleed US taxpayers and redraw Middle East boundaries. To elites, Iran=Syria=Russia, all the same, all must be flattened and new boundaries drawn. They thought for sure they could get Obama to do it. And why not? Massive US military bureaucracy, many strutting around with gold bars on their jackets, some appearing nightly on tv news. For what? Unless they can bomb someone, there's no reason for them to be on tv. During JFK admin, Pentagon brass was desperate to bomb the Soviet Union, hated JFK for not doing it, one even went over and started a battle in Berlin. In 1963 JFK was sure the Pentagon was going to remove him from office. The Pentagon should be closed. Nuland's leaving only made neocons stronger.
Game on!
Would that it were only a Game of Drones…hopefully Iran stays cool and doesn’t indulge Israel’s mad folly by responding…L Johnson this morning is quite pessimistic though…
https://sonar21.com/
This is the first report I've seen or heard of that said Iran hit some targets. Everything I saw the day after said no targets were hit. Granted, I didn't think about it too much because it was also said Iran announced ahead of time they were going to do something. Iran was already justified in attacking US or US targets because of Stuxnet in 2009-2010. Michael Hayden even said at the time that the attack on Iran's nuclear labs carried great risk of response from Iran.
Censorship in your area. Israel just sent missiles to Iran.
Thanks, I just saw a mention of it.
I have only seen this idea alluded to , but not really commentated on in depth. Here it is, by Scott Ritter in passing.....
" Adding to the capability and lethality of the US-Israeli ballistic missile defense architecture was the presence of at least two US Navy ballistic missile defense (BMD) system-capable Aegis-class destroyers equipped with the SPY-1 S band radar and SM-3/SM-6 interceptor missiles. The Navy BMD-capable ships are configured to tie into the ground-based AN/TPY-2 X band radar as well as the broader BMD system through the Command and Control, Battle management, and Communications (C2BMC) system. The combination of ground-based radars and interceptors with the US Navy BMD system provides US military commanders with theater-wide protection from hostile ballistic missile threats. This integrated system is designed to detect, acquire, and track incoming threats and, using complex computer-drive algorithms, discriminate targets and destroy them using hit-to-kill kinetic warheads (i.e., a “bullet hitting a bullet”).
On April 13-14, 2023, this system failed. In short, the combination of US and Israeli anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities deployed in and around the Negev desert made the Israeli air bases located there the most protected locations in the world from threats posed by ballistic missiles."
Does everyone understand the Ramifications of this information? NO? Well here it is.
For years we were told, and the Pentagon constantly reminded everyone, that the Aegis Missile Defense system was the Premier ADA system in the world. Nothing could defeat it. Because of the Aegis, US Aircraft Carriers were invulnerable due to the sophisticated and comprehensive ADA bubble created by escort ships and the Aegis system in combination with phalanx and associated ADA radar systems.
For us as servicemen, this was accepted as a matter of course. It assured us dominance of the air and provided protection for ship to shore ground units.
So if the Aegis is not the vaunted deterrent it once was, then the United States as a Real BIG Problem. Its Aircraft Carriers are now vulnerable and so is the rest of the fleet. In a battle with a near peer or peer enemy, how are you going to steam to the South China Sea or to the Med
and make it there in one piece? The answer is, that most likely, you are not.
This is an item (if true) that needs to have the "blinding light of notice" shined on it, so it can be discussed and we as a country figure out the brutal question of: "What are we going to do now?" Now, that the world has changed.
100% with you, but 2024 not 2023... :)
Good Catch!! A typo that I did not see.!!! Thank you!
I forgot the aegis was used.
Missile defense has been a bit of a red headed child in the U.S. armed forces.
Count on it--there are people scrambling to find a solution--ANY solution, including short term--for this. The rest of the world, including the people whose chains we've been yanking, won't be waiting for us to figure something out.