Scott Ritter: Global Checkmate

In between errands today I listened to an excellent interview with Scott Ritter: INTERVIEW: Scott Ritter - Iran vs Israel: What’s Next? Obviously, Scott gets into the various possible scenarios going forward, especially what form any Israeli “retaliation” might take. Scott leans toward the view—which he presents very articulately—that Israel is in a box and will find it very difficult to retaliate at all. Scott addresses this from a military standpoint. Judge Nap and Max Blumenthal address the turmoil—very real—within the Israeli war cabinet over these issues. All agree that Iran called the Israeli bluff by responding militarily to the Israeli attack on a diplomatic establishment. Israel had not thought ahead and asked, ‘What if?’

Scott also points to the much bigger implications of what Iran did. April 14th represented a kind of High Noon for more than just Israel. It was an existential challenge to the entire framework on which America’s imperial power projection is based. Check it out:

What the Americans overlaid over Israel on April 14th was basically a picture perfect theater ballistic missile defense system. It's the same kind of system that we assure our European allies will protect them from Russian missiles. It's the same system that we assure our Japanese and South Korean allies will protect them from North Korean missiles. It's the same system that we assure our Taiwanese allies and regional allies will protect them from Chinese missiles. And yet what the Iranians proved is that they can not only hit any target on the land but they will sink any target at sea. This means American aircraft carriers. What protects American aircraft carriers? The same ballistic missile defense architecture that Iran just penetrated.

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This changes everything. This puts America in Checkmate globally. We--not just Israel--have lost Deterrence Supremacy. That's the game changing moment here, because the United States has based [its entire] military power projection on the notion of the technological superiority of America's ballistic missile defense shield. And the Iranians just proved that it's not infallible. It can be defeated. The North Koreans have similar technology, the Chinese have similar technology, the Russians have similar technology. That means that America is vulnerable to all of its potential adversaries.

This was High Noon played out before the entire world. Obviously the result doesn’t necessarily put the American homeland at risk—except, perhaps, from Russia. The US retains nuclear superiority over all other countries except Russia. Nevertheless, short of nuclear strikes, it does mean that the American Empire will have to seriously rethink its traditional ways of intimidating countries around the world. The days of aircraft carrier diplomacy are probably numbered. The US should probably think twice before sailing an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait unless it’s ready to escalate to nuclear war.

From this standpoint, it’s easy enough to see why the US—and its NATO allies—are desperate to talk Israel out of retaliation against Iran. What if, asks Scott, Iran manages to shoot down some F-16s or F-35s? What message will that send to the rest of the world, which is even now digesting the meaning of Iran’s successful penetration of the most sophisticated extant missile defense system in the world? It appears to me that the US is being nudged toward an exit from the Middle East in whatever face-saving manner that the Empire can devise. Which leaves Israel in the unenviable position of having to treat other Middle Eastern countries as equals.

In addition to the video linked above, Scott has published two articles on these topics that I highly recommend. The first of the two articles sketches out the quicksand that unquestioning support of Israel has led the US—in the midst of a transitioning world order:

The Missiles of April

Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel will go down in history as one of the greatest victories of this century.

I’ve been writing about Iran for more than two decades. In 2005, I made a trip to Iran to ascertain the “ground truth” about that nation, a truth which I then incorporated into a book, Target Iran, laying out the US-Israeli collaboration to craft a justification for a military attack on Iran designed to bring down its theocratic government. I followed this book up with another, Dealbreaker, in 2018, which brought this US-Israeli effort up to date.

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But it is Israel that has done the most damage to itself, carrying out a genocidal policy of retribution against the civilian population of Gaza. The Israeli actions in Gaza are the living manifestation of the very hubris and power-driven policies I warned about back in 2006-2007. Then, I said that the US would not be willing to be a passenger in a policy bus driven by Israel that would take us off the cliff of an unwinnable war with Iran.

Through its criminal behavior toward the Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Israel has lost the support of much of the world, putting the United States in a position where it will see its already-tarnished reputation irreparably damaged, at a time when the world is transitioning from a period of American-dominated singularity to a BRICS-driven multipolarity, and the US needs to retain as much clout in the so-called “global south” as possible.

The US has tried—unsuccessfully—to take the keys out of the ignition of Netanyahu’s suicide bus ride.

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The second article expands on what Scott discussed in the interview today—but in much greater detail:

Checkmate

The Iranian defeat of the US-Israeli missile defense architecture has global security consequences.

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The Iranian deterrence posture has implications that reach far beyond the environs of Israel or the Middle East. By defeating the US-Israeli missile defense shield, Iran exposed the notion of US missile defense supremacy that serves as the heart of US force protection models used when projecting military power on a global scale. The US defensive posture vis-à-vis Russia, China, and North Korea hinges on assumptions made regarding the efficacy of US ballistic missile defense capabilities. By successfully attacking Israeli air bases which had the benefit of the full range of US anti-ballistic missile technology, Iran exposed the vulnerability of the US missile defense shield to modern missile technologies involving maneuverable warheads, decoys, and hypersonic speed. US bases in Europe, the Pacific and the Middle East once thought to be well-protected, have suddenly been revealed to be vulnerable to hostile attack. So, too, are US Navy ships operating at sea.

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