In between errands today I listened to an excellent interview with Scott Ritter: INTERVIEW: Scott Ritter - Iran vs Israel: What’s Next? Obviously, Scott gets into the various possible scenarios going forward, especially what form any Israeli “retaliation” might take. Scott leans toward the view—which he presents very articulately—that Israel is in a box and will find it very difficult to retaliate at all. Scott addresses this from a military standpoint. Judge Nap and Max Blumenthal address the turmoil—very real—within the Israeli war cabinet over these issues. All agree that Iran called the Israeli bluff by responding militarily to the Israeli attack on a diplomatic establishment. Israel had not thought ahead and asked, ‘What if?’
Scott also points to the much bigger implications of what Iran did. April 14th represented a kind of High Noon for more than just Israel. It was an existential challenge to the entire framework on which America’s imperial power projection is based. Check it out:
What the Americans overlaid over Israel on April 14th was basically a picture perfect theater ballistic missile defense system. It's the same kind of system that we assure our European allies will protect them from Russian missiles. It's the same system that we assure our Japanese and South Korean allies will protect them from North Korean missiles. It's the same system that we assure our Taiwanese allies and regional allies will protect them from Chinese missiles. And yet what the Iranians proved is that they can not only hit any target on the land but they will sink any target at sea. This means American aircraft carriers. What protects American aircraft carriers? The same ballistic missile defense architecture that Iran just penetrated.
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This changes everything. This puts America in Checkmate globally. We--not just Israel--have lost Deterrence Supremacy. That's the game changing moment here, because the United States has based [its entire] military power projection on the notion of the technological superiority of America's ballistic missile defense shield. And the Iranians just proved that it's not infallible. It can be defeated. The North Koreans have similar technology, the Chinese have similar technology, the Russians have similar technology. That means that America is vulnerable to all of its potential adversaries.
This was High Noon played out before the entire world. Obviously the result doesn’t necessarily put the American homeland at risk—except, perhaps, from Russia. The US retains nuclear superiority over all other countries except Russia. Nevertheless, short of nuclear strikes, it does mean that the American Empire will have to seriously rethink its traditional ways of intimidating countries around the world. The days of aircraft carrier diplomacy are probably numbered. The US should probably think twice before sailing an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait unless it’s ready to escalate to nuclear war.
From this standpoint, it’s easy enough to see why the US—and its NATO allies—are desperate to talk Israel out of retaliation against Iran. What if, asks Scott, Iran manages to shoot down some F-16s or F-35s? What message will that send to the rest of the world, which is even now digesting the meaning of Iran’s successful penetration of the most sophisticated extant missile defense system in the world? It appears to me that the US is being nudged toward an exit from the Middle East in whatever face-saving manner that the Empire can devise. Which leaves Israel in the unenviable position of having to treat other Middle Eastern countries as equals.
In addition to the video linked above, Scott has published two articles on these topics that I highly recommend. The first of the two articles sketches out the quicksand that unquestioning support of Israel has led the US—in the midst of a transitioning world order:
Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel will go down in history as one of the greatest victories of this century.
I’ve been writing about Iran for more than two decades. In 2005, I made a trip to Iran to ascertain the “ground truth” about that nation, a truth which I then incorporated into a book, Target Iran, laying out the US-Israeli collaboration to craft a justification for a military attack on Iran designed to bring down its theocratic government. I followed this book up with another, Dealbreaker, in 2018, which brought this US-Israeli effort up to date.
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But it is Israel that has done the most damage to itself, carrying out a genocidal policy of retribution against the civilian population of Gaza. The Israeli actions in Gaza are the living manifestation of the very hubris and power-driven policies I warned about back in 2006-2007. Then, I said that the US would not be willing to be a passenger in a policy bus driven by Israel that would take us off the cliff of an unwinnable war with Iran.
Through its criminal behavior toward the Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Israel has lost the support of much of the world, putting the United States in a position where it will see its already-tarnished reputation irreparably damaged, at a time when the world is transitioning from a period of American-dominated singularity to a BRICS-driven multipolarity, and the US needs to retain as much clout in the so-called “global south” as possible.
The US has tried—unsuccessfully—to take the keys out of the ignition of Netanyahu’s suicide bus ride.
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The second article expands on what Scott discussed in the interview today—but in much greater detail:
The Iranian defeat of the US-Israeli missile defense architecture has global security consequences.
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The Iranian deterrence posture has implications that reach far beyond the environs of Israel or the Middle East. By defeating the US-Israeli missile defense shield, Iran exposed the notion of US missile defense supremacy that serves as the heart of US force protection models used when projecting military power on a global scale. The US defensive posture vis-à-vis Russia, China, and North Korea hinges on assumptions made regarding the efficacy of US ballistic missile defense capabilities. By successfully attacking Israeli air bases which had the benefit of the full range of US anti-ballistic missile technology, Iran exposed the vulnerability of the US missile defense shield to modern missile technologies involving maneuverable warheads, decoys, and hypersonic speed. US bases in Europe, the Pacific and the Middle East once thought to be well-protected, have suddenly been revealed to be vulnerable to hostile attack. So, too, are US Navy ships operating at sea.
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Weeb Union @WeebUnionWar
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What we know so far.
1. Israel has attacked Iran confirmed by US officials
2. So far only small drones have been reported to have struck Iran according to Iranian strikes
3. Iran claims to have shot down 100% of said drones
(1/2)
4. My opinion is this is a strike prior to a "main strike" to detect Iranian radar and air defense systems.
5. This strike seems to be extremely small in scale. Either Israel is planning a 2nd larger strike or Israel is just launching a mini attack to avoid escalation.
(2/2)
I have only seen this idea alluded to , but not really commentated on in depth. Here it is, by Scott Ritter in passing.....
" Adding to the capability and lethality of the US-Israeli ballistic missile defense architecture was the presence of at least two US Navy ballistic missile defense (BMD) system-capable Aegis-class destroyers equipped with the SPY-1 S band radar and SM-3/SM-6 interceptor missiles. The Navy BMD-capable ships are configured to tie into the ground-based AN/TPY-2 X band radar as well as the broader BMD system through the Command and Control, Battle management, and Communications (C2BMC) system. The combination of ground-based radars and interceptors with the US Navy BMD system provides US military commanders with theater-wide protection from hostile ballistic missile threats. This integrated system is designed to detect, acquire, and track incoming threats and, using complex computer-drive algorithms, discriminate targets and destroy them using hit-to-kill kinetic warheads (i.e., a “bullet hitting a bullet”).
On April 13-14, 2023, this system failed. In short, the combination of US and Israeli anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities deployed in and around the Negev desert made the Israeli air bases located there the most protected locations in the world from threats posed by ballistic missiles."
Does everyone understand the Ramifications of this information? NO? Well here it is.
For years we were told, and the Pentagon constantly reminded everyone, that the Aegis Missile Defense system was the Premier ADA system in the world. Nothing could defeat it. Because of the Aegis, US Aircraft Carriers were invulnerable due to the sophisticated and comprehensive ADA bubble created by escort ships and the Aegis system in combination with phalanx and associated ADA radar systems.
For us as servicemen, this was accepted as a matter of course. It assured us dominance of the air and provided protection for ship to shore ground units.
So if the Aegis is not the vaunted deterrent it once was, then the United States as a Real BIG Problem. Its Aircraft Carriers are now vulnerable and so is the rest of the fleet. In a battle with a near peer or peer enemy, how are you going to steam to the South China Sea or to the Med
and make it there in one piece? The answer is, that most likely, you are not.
This is an item (if true) that needs to have the "blinding light of notice" shined on it, so it can be discussed and we as a country figure out the brutal question of: "What are we going to do now?" Now, that the world has changed.