Russia has approved plans for referenda in several regions of former Ukraine, which could lead to those regions (oblasts) seceding from Ukraine and then applying for membership in the Russian Federation.
One quick add. Referendum/plebiscite tomato/tomahto. Some version of this is the only way out this mess diplomatically. I don't see Russia being able to land a knockout blow on Ukraine and I don't see Ukraine pushing the Russian army back to the pre 2014 borders. At least not in any kind of reasonable time or at any acceptable cost. God will be in the details.
Edward Luttwak has been calling for plebiscites in Ukraine from the very beginning and points out that such have been used successfully to defuse things like this in the past. However, hid idea of a plebiscite involves a large number of international observers to ensure its legitimacy. In his view, the referendum the Russians are talking about would not have that legitimacy because of a lack of observers.
This is extensively covered in Luttwak's Twitter feed. The Ukrainians likely would reject the referendum that Putin wants. How Ukraine's NATO backers would react is another matter, and I do not pretend to know their minds.
My hunch is that Russia received information over some weapon systems the U.S. is secretly providing to the Ukraine. This could be missiles with several hundred kilometer range or other types of weapons that could seriously threaten Russia's towns and cities.
If so, Russia has to do something now to end the war before its becomes more than a nuisance for Russia and its people. Ending means of course by winning it.
In 2013 Obama worked with Putin to achieve solutions in Syria. But murderous "neocons were apoplectic that they failed to convince Obama to order a massive bombing campaign and escalate his covert proxy war in Syria and at the receding prospect of a war with Iran. Fearing their control of U.S. foreign policy was slipping, the neocons launched a campaign to brand Obama as “weak” on foreign policy and remind him of their power….Obama invited [Robert] Kagan to a private lunch at the White House, and the neocons’ muscle-flexing pressured him to scale back his diplomacy with Russia.”…1/19/2021, “Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden’s foreign policy team,” salon.com, Medea Benjamin, Nicolas J.S. Davies, Marcy Winograd...9/11/2013, “A Plea for Caution From Russia," By Vladimir V Putin, NY Times op-ed, Moscow. “Op-Ed Contributor”
Putin continues to be reasonable, and is taking advantage of the West's desperate need for a victory to up the stakes. He has all the cards.
The SCOTUS is out of control. A Justice admits she is not qualified to decide if she is a woman, but they can all get involved in deciding religious doctrine and even allowing blatant heresy in a religious matter. Freedom of religion?
As for pilots, just be more inclusive and get more women like the one who couldn't land an expensive plane on an aircraft carrier.
I think the Russians have abandoned the possibility of a negotiated settlement, after the West has scuttled the previous attempts.
It looks like they will use the old "they invited us in to save them, then wanted to join us" routine that has been used so many times in the past (Warsaw Pact, maybe NATO?)
Since 2014 the two Donbass republics have petitioned for admission to the RF several times but were turned down by Putin. Ukraine has been bombarding civilian areas for the past 8 years and has killed at least 14,000 people. They continue doing this on a daily basis. I don't think this is a routine.
Well, that stuff about a declaration of war and national mobilization is "speculation by pundits." Putin plays chess, and I suspect most pundits play checkers.
FWIW, Alex Mercouris says that he's heard that Zaluzhniy has gone to Zelenskiy and told him that losses in the "counteroffensives" have been catastrophic. Meanwhile our military hardware cupboards have been stripped almost bare and Europe is facing a very cold winter. Is a negotiated end in sight?
One quick add. Referendum/plebiscite tomato/tomahto. Some version of this is the only way out this mess diplomatically. I don't see Russia being able to land a knockout blow on Ukraine and I don't see Ukraine pushing the Russian army back to the pre 2014 borders. At least not in any kind of reasonable time or at any acceptable cost. God will be in the details.
The Duran discusses the ramifications of the upcoming referendums:
https://youtu.be/qskLuWb0GEM
Edward Luttwak has been calling for plebiscites in Ukraine from the very beginning and points out that such have been used successfully to defuse things like this in the past. However, hid idea of a plebiscite involves a large number of international observers to ensure its legitimacy. In his view, the referendum the Russians are talking about would not have that legitimacy because of a lack of observers.
This is extensively covered in Luttwak's Twitter feed. The Ukrainians likely would reject the referendum that Putin wants. How Ukraine's NATO backers would react is another matter, and I do not pretend to know their minds.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/on-the-upcoming-putin-speech-and-annoucements.html
My hunch is that Russia received information over some weapon systems the U.S. is secretly providing to the Ukraine. This could be missiles with several hundred kilometer range or other types of weapons that could seriously threaten Russia's towns and cities.
If so, Russia has to do something now to end the war before its becomes more than a nuisance for Russia and its people. Ending means of course by winning it.
In 2013 Obama worked with Putin to achieve solutions in Syria. But murderous "neocons were apoplectic that they failed to convince Obama to order a massive bombing campaign and escalate his covert proxy war in Syria and at the receding prospect of a war with Iran. Fearing their control of U.S. foreign policy was slipping, the neocons launched a campaign to brand Obama as “weak” on foreign policy and remind him of their power….Obama invited [Robert] Kagan to a private lunch at the White House, and the neocons’ muscle-flexing pressured him to scale back his diplomacy with Russia.”…1/19/2021, “Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden’s foreign policy team,” salon.com, Medea Benjamin, Nicolas J.S. Davies, Marcy Winograd...9/11/2013, “A Plea for Caution From Russia," By Vladimir V Putin, NY Times op-ed, Moscow. “Op-Ed Contributor”
Putin has been reasonable all along. The Neocons chose to interpret that as weakness and intelligence inferior to their own genius. Not smart.
Putin continues to be reasonable, and is taking advantage of the West's desperate need for a victory to up the stakes. He has all the cards.
The SCOTUS is out of control. A Justice admits she is not qualified to decide if she is a woman, but they can all get involved in deciding religious doctrine and even allowing blatant heresy in a religious matter. Freedom of religion?
As for pilots, just be more inclusive and get more women like the one who couldn't land an expensive plane on an aircraft carrier.
I think the Russians have abandoned the possibility of a negotiated settlement, after the West has scuttled the previous attempts.
It looks like they will use the old "they invited us in to save them, then wanted to join us" routine that has been used so many times in the past (Warsaw Pact, maybe NATO?)
Since 2014 the two Donbass republics have petitioned for admission to the RF several times but were turned down by Putin. Ukraine has been bombarding civilian areas for the past 8 years and has killed at least 14,000 people. They continue doing this on a daily basis. I don't think this is a routine.
Well, that stuff about a declaration of war and national mobilization is "speculation by pundits." Putin plays chess, and I suspect most pundits play checkers.
FWIW, Alex Mercouris says that he's heard that Zaluzhniy has gone to Zelenskiy and told him that losses in the "counteroffensives" have been catastrophic. Meanwhile our military hardware cupboards have been stripped almost bare and Europe is facing a very cold winter. Is a negotiated end in sight?