Russia has approved plans for referenda in several regions of former Ukraine, which could lead to those regions (oblasts) seceding from Ukraine and then applying for membership in the Russian Federation. Those referenda will happen very soon, which seems to be a clear indication that the referenda are part of a concerted response by Russia to recent events in the Ukraine—including terroristic attacks on civilians by Ukraine. The decision by the Russian Duma on whether to allow these regions to join the Russian Federation could then proceed very quickly. Here are the basics,
One quick add. Referendum/plebiscite tomato/tomahto. Some version of this is the only way out this mess diplomatically. I don't see Russia being able to land a knockout blow on Ukraine and I don't see Ukraine pushing the Russian army back to the pre 2014 borders. At least not in any kind of reasonable time or at any acceptable cost. God will be in the details.
Edward Luttwak has been calling for plebiscites in Ukraine from the very beginning and points out that such have been used successfully to defuse things like this in the past. However, hid idea of a plebiscite involves a large number of international observers to ensure its legitimacy. In his view, the referendum the Russians are talking about would not have that legitimacy because of a lack of observers.
This is extensively covered in Luttwak's Twitter feed. The Ukrainians likely would reject the referendum that Putin wants. How Ukraine's NATO backers would react is another matter, and I do not pretend to know their minds.
My hunch is that Russia received information over some weapon systems the U.S. is secretly providing to the Ukraine. This could be missiles with several hundred kilometer range or other types of weapons that could seriously threaten Russia's towns and cities.
If so, Russia has to do something now to end the war before its becomes more than a nuisance for Russia and its people. Ending means of course by winning it.
In 2013 Obama worked with Putin to achieve solutions in Syria. But murderous "neocons were apoplectic that they failed to convince Obama to order a massive bombing campaign and escalate his covert proxy war in Syria and at the receding prospect of a war with Iran. Fearing their control of U.S. foreign policy was slipping, the neocons launched a campaign to brand Obama as “weak” on foreign policy and remind him of their power….Obama invited [Robert] Kagan to a private lunch at the White House, and the neocons’ muscle-flexing pressured him to scale back his diplomacy with Russia.”…1/19/2021, “Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden’s foreign policy team,” salon.com, Medea Benjamin, Nicolas J.S. Davies, Marcy Winograd...9/11/2013, “A Plea for Caution From Russia," By Vladimir V Putin, NY Times op-ed, Moscow. “Op-Ed Contributor”
One quick add. Referendum/plebiscite tomato/tomahto. Some version of this is the only way out this mess diplomatically. I don't see Russia being able to land a knockout blow on Ukraine and I don't see Ukraine pushing the Russian army back to the pre 2014 borders. At least not in any kind of reasonable time or at any acceptable cost. God will be in the details.
The Duran discusses the ramifications of the upcoming referendums:
https://youtu.be/qskLuWb0GEM
Edward Luttwak has been calling for plebiscites in Ukraine from the very beginning and points out that such have been used successfully to defuse things like this in the past. However, hid idea of a plebiscite involves a large number of international observers to ensure its legitimacy. In his view, the referendum the Russians are talking about would not have that legitimacy because of a lack of observers.
This is extensively covered in Luttwak's Twitter feed. The Ukrainians likely would reject the referendum that Putin wants. How Ukraine's NATO backers would react is another matter, and I do not pretend to know their minds.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/on-the-upcoming-putin-speech-and-annoucements.html
My hunch is that Russia received information over some weapon systems the U.S. is secretly providing to the Ukraine. This could be missiles with several hundred kilometer range or other types of weapons that could seriously threaten Russia's towns and cities.
If so, Russia has to do something now to end the war before its becomes more than a nuisance for Russia and its people. Ending means of course by winning it.
In 2013 Obama worked with Putin to achieve solutions in Syria. But murderous "neocons were apoplectic that they failed to convince Obama to order a massive bombing campaign and escalate his covert proxy war in Syria and at the receding prospect of a war with Iran. Fearing their control of U.S. foreign policy was slipping, the neocons launched a campaign to brand Obama as “weak” on foreign policy and remind him of their power….Obama invited [Robert] Kagan to a private lunch at the White House, and the neocons’ muscle-flexing pressured him to scale back his diplomacy with Russia.”…1/19/2021, “Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden’s foreign policy team,” salon.com, Medea Benjamin, Nicolas J.S. Davies, Marcy Winograd...9/11/2013, “A Plea for Caution From Russia," By Vladimir V Putin, NY Times op-ed, Moscow. “Op-Ed Contributor”