Russia has approved plans for referenda in several regions of former Ukraine, which could lead to those regions (oblasts) seceding from Ukraine and then applying for membership in the Russian Federation. Those referenda will happen very soon, which seems to be a clear indication that the referenda are part of a concerted response by Russia to recent events in the Ukraine—including terroristic attacks on civilians by Ukraine. The decision by the Russian Duma on whether to allow these regions to join the Russian Federation could then proceed very quickly. Here are the basics, via Reuters:
Russia on Tuesday gave support to plans by separatists which it backs in Ukraine to hold referendums paving the way for the annexation of swathes of additional territory, a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the conflict.
After nearly seven months of war, including a critical battlefield defeat in northeastern Ukraine, Putin is pondering his next steps.
In what appeared to be choreographed requests, Russian-backed officials across 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - lined up to request referendums on joining Russia.
The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Putin recognised as independent just before the invasion, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have asked for votes over less than 24 hours.
Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson officials said the referendums would take place in just days - on Friday Sept. 23 through to Monday Sept. 27. Russia does not fully control any of the four regions, with only around 60% of Donetsk region in Russian hands.
What this could amount to is a workaround to thwart the efforts of the collective West to force Russia into a declaration of war. The declaration of war would be required for Russia to invade another nation, and would also entail national mobilization. Mobilization could potentially proof to be a major burden on the Russian economy.
By holding the referenda and then allowing these regions to seek membership within the Russian Federation, these legal pitfalls are avoided.
First, these regions become part of Russia—and the inhabitants become Russian citizens.
Second, the Russian military will then be in full legal control of the military defense against attacks on Russian territory and Russian civilians.
Importantly, the military response would not require a declaration of war and would not require national mobilization. But the entire weight of the Russian military would be available to defend these new Russian areas. Up to now, the Special Military Operation has involved only a limited direct involvement of the Russian army.
This referenda procedure is endorsed, at least by the collective West, in International Law—remember, Putin has a degree in international law. The West supported the secession of Kosovo from Serbia. Once the principle of a right to secede is recognized, the next step of voting to join another nation appears quite acceptable. Notably, at the Samarkand summit, Putin rejected the notion of “annexation”. Clearly, the legal framework has been in the works for some time.
Putin will doubtless enjoy wide support for these measures within Russia, and the legal framework will mollify Russia’s supporters in non-Western countries.
All of this will put the collective West on the spot in terms of responding. More sanctions? Good luck.
Weird. The USAF faces a critical shortage of pilots, yet seeks to reduce the number of white pilots.
Yeshiva University flips off the SCOTUS. I approve.
OK, the university isn’t exactly flipping off the SCOTUS, but they’re giving a strong indication of just how important this issue is.
An Orthodox Jewish university has suspended all student club activities following the U.S. Supreme Court's reversal of a temporary order sparing the institution from having to approve the establishment of an on-campus LGBT organization while its case is adjudicated.
Yeshiva University told students in an email Friday that it would "hold off on all undergraduate club activities while it immediately takes steps to follow the roadmap provided by the U.S. Supreme Court to protect YU's religious freedom."
…
Last week, the Supreme Court left in place a New York state court ruling in a 5-4 vote, lifting Justice Sonia Sotomayor's temporary order preventing Yeshiva University from having to give the Pride Alliance group the same privileges as other student organizations under the New York City Human Rights Law.
The law includes sexual orientation and gender identity among classes protected from discrimination in places of public accommodation.
The nation's high court determined it was too early to take up the university's case and that it must go through the lower courts first. The court ruled that Yeshiva could return if lower courts did not offer a quick resolution.
The opinion was unsigned, but the justices who sided with the majority were Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
The question everyone is asking—except, apparently, the political DC establishment:
Biden’s ‘60 Minutes’ Interview Proved Once Again He Isn’t Running The Country, So Who Is?
As has long been held throughout American history, it is the president that heads up and steers U.S. foreign policy, not unelected bureaucrats. Yet that is exactly the situation the country finds itself in today.
At every turn of his presidency, Biden has abdicated his responsibilities to unknown White House staffers, who direct and carry out the government’s major policy initiatives while America’s commander in chief slinks away to his Delaware beach house at every available opportunity. In essence, Biden has become nothing more than a puppet, whose strings are being controlled by unnamed, high-level White House officials to shape America and her foreign policy through whatever means necessary.
Whether it’s getting lost on stage after giving a public speech or having his wife prevent him from answering press questions, Biden has demonstrated time and again that he isn’t remotely capable of handling the most basic tasks of a fully functioning human being, let alone those of a U.S. president. Under a different president — a Republican one — left-wing Americans and the media would be loudly calling into question Biden’s ability to serve. But sadly, Democrats are in charge. So instead, we’re stuck with a walker-back-in-chief whose oligarchic presidency is running the country into the ground.
Karl Denninger weighs in on Facebook and the FBI:
Read what he has to say. His conclusion:
We will never stop the crazy in this country until and unless people who lie in this fashion are held to account -- and "held to account" does not mean the firms are fined.
It means people MUST go to prison, which is an equally-nasty consequence for all irrespective of how rich you are, a severity that is never true in the case of a fine because a fine that impoverishes a middle-class chump is laughed at by people like Zuckerpig.
Russian Gamechanger--And Politics
One quick add. Referendum/plebiscite tomato/tomahto. Some version of this is the only way out this mess diplomatically. I don't see Russia being able to land a knockout blow on Ukraine and I don't see Ukraine pushing the Russian army back to the pre 2014 borders. At least not in any kind of reasonable time or at any acceptable cost. God will be in the details.
The Duran discusses the ramifications of the upcoming referendums:
https://youtu.be/qskLuWb0GEM