Trump has now inadvertently provided Iran with enormous leverage. They have been subjected to an unprovoked attack by the US in violation of international law and the NPT. This gives them cover, if they choose to use it, to retaliate in a method of their choice. For Iran, the biggest bang for the buck (forgive the pun) is to wait for an LPG tanker to attempt transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Then launch hypersonic ballistic missiles equipped with armor-penetrating cluster munitions that explode over the containment domes. This would produce thousands of punctures and create a major vapor cloud release of natural gas into the ambient atmosphere. At that point, the only option for the crew is a full shutdown of all energy systems and immediately abandon ship, hopefully accomplishing that goal before an ignition occurs. Best case scenario, the vapor cloud dissipates safely until all the fuel is dispersed. Worst case, the vapor cloud ignites and the tanker BLEVEs. If the latter, it will be a Chernobyl like event and change energy shipping forever. This threat alone would provide Iran with more clout than nukes could ever offer. The world would be hostage, not just Israel.
Trump solved a politically intractable Gordian knot. The US & Iran met in Oman two days prior to the strike, the US giving Iran advanced warning to prepare for these (impotent) strikes. Iran's response will be (intentionally) toothless. Both countries now have an off-ramp after stroking their hard-liners. This is essentially a replay of the 2020 Suleimani assassination and Iranian response of deliberately missing our military base.
Pundits are clueless and distraught that wide-spread peace will break out in the Middle East. You heard it here first.
So Iran takes the off-ramp offered to it? Maybe. But they know deep down that any pause will be very short and temporary. The neocons and Zionists in the Beltway and Tel Aviv will never give up until Iran is destroyed.
I'm not convinced. This time is different. This is not about one guy--however important and popular--being murdered. This time a LOT of people were assassinated.
Just listened to Ritter, McGovern & Joe Lauria of Consortium News. I agree with their hope? advice? about Iran's response: DO NOT ATTACK USA, but pound the hell out of Israel.
I agree.
Listened to Iran's FM Araghchi's speech in Istanbul. His focus was on damage US actions have done to NPT and to UN. Araghchi is a Lavrov-calibre diplomat.
Also agree.
If Trump was so concerned to placate his Jewish pals, he should have spoken in Hebrew.
His comments to Americans, and to the RoW as putative leader of Americans was embarrassing, shameful, and so ignorant it made Ted Cruz look eloquent.
PS Mohawk: Zionists have a unique view of "peace." It emerges from the zionist hyper-embrace of the First commandment: "Thou shalt have no god before me." -- Jews are god's chosen; Rabbi Ken Spiro has been producing videos for years explaining that "chosen" means "Jews have the responsibility to teach the world morality -- kicking and screaming." iow, the essence of that form of religion is, Who is in charge. Spriro's form of Jewishness means Jews are in charge. That religion translates into, Peace means Jews are in charge.
I reject that.
And if what you are "telling us first" comes to pass, Mohawk, the world that emerges is not one I wish for my children and grandchildren.
I am in the same camp with you and the people you mentioned. Let Iran continue to bomb the Devil out of Israel. The path the Anglo-Zionist have mapped out is one of certain destruction for most of the world's populations. It has got to change.
More would be accomplished by closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait than closing the strait of Hormuz. It would be easy to do by sinking the aircraft carrier that tossed off the fighter jet when it tries to leave the Red Sea. One or two of the hypersonic missiles the Houthis have would do the job.
Yemen has become self-sufficient in munitions and they can handle the Red Sea closure by themselves. If Iran sticks to its threat to attack American bases in the Middle East now that the US has entered the war, they might find that several of the other countries that are occupied by American bases will be their front men in those attacks. When the anti-missile missiles from the US start to dwindle, the Zionists might decide to exercise their Samson Option, which would end the fighting with widespread death and destruction.
How many are to the point of regretting Obama who would never have lit the match to start a second war against Russia, ie against the Iranians. Will this be Trump’s Vietnam? Funny how the Dems are aligned now with Trump (Uniparty) in their calls for war.
I couldn’t sleep last night so I turned onto YouTube and I caught Scott Ritter on with his analysis of the bombing raid.
His opinion was that two of the targets were just empty buildings, and that the bunker busting bombs probably did little to no damage to the main nuclear facility and it could be that they had already moved everything out of there as precaution .
So Trump’s attack on Iran may have done exactly nothing accomplished exactly nothing as Ritter says it it was to say face maybe more than anything else. I look forward to other opinions today, particularly on judge Napolitano’s show later on this morning.
I will say that the die hard MAGA Kool-Aid drinkers drank as much as possible last night. Free Republic was positively giddy with joy. Any chance of posting anything logical about what happened? Would invite nothing but scorn and derogatory remarks.
Either today or tomorrow when the dust settles, we’re probably going to get more reliable information on what happened. The one thing I’ll be watching tonight at about 6 PM is when the futures markets open and we see what it looks like then.
Really starting to worry that he's gone POTATUS like Dementia Joe, or he took the buyout n joined the Uniparty. Guess we are going to find out soon enough.
The one weapon system that might work in this scenario is a hypersonic glide vehicle with a nuclear warhead. But the US does not have hypersonic weapons (Russia and Iran do) - apart from its ICBMs.
"Peace through Strength" sounds a lot like:
War is Peace.
What are trying to do, write a new novel called 2025?
The bunker busters did not work so nukes are up next. Escalations will continue until morale improves. 🙄
Trump has now inadvertently provided Iran with enormous leverage. They have been subjected to an unprovoked attack by the US in violation of international law and the NPT. This gives them cover, if they choose to use it, to retaliate in a method of their choice. For Iran, the biggest bang for the buck (forgive the pun) is to wait for an LPG tanker to attempt transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Then launch hypersonic ballistic missiles equipped with armor-penetrating cluster munitions that explode over the containment domes. This would produce thousands of punctures and create a major vapor cloud release of natural gas into the ambient atmosphere. At that point, the only option for the crew is a full shutdown of all energy systems and immediately abandon ship, hopefully accomplishing that goal before an ignition occurs. Best case scenario, the vapor cloud dissipates safely until all the fuel is dispersed. Worst case, the vapor cloud ignites and the tanker BLEVEs. If the latter, it will be a Chernobyl like event and change energy shipping forever. This threat alone would provide Iran with more clout than nukes could ever offer. The world would be hostage, not just Israel.
.
TRUMP MAIN GOAL IN THE IRAN BOMBING -
Trump's main goal in the Iran bombing
..............................Was to divert Iran's attention from Israel to US
Israel was being beaten and badly and there is much social unrest
- Netanyahu is desperate............................................
..News Reports Are That : ....Iran has not taken the bait.
https://x.com/Ahmed_hassan_za/status/1936792833203032345
Iran is going to continue bombing Israel - and this US Israeli
escalation gave Iran additional permission under UN Article 51
=======================================
--- Very similar to Syria situation
US Hoped that Russia Iran would get bogged down there
Russia and Iran did not take the bait - and now US and Israel are bogged down there
US and Israel overextended militarily and financially and continue
Watch for Trump
A. Phone calls to Putin Begging to assist in Israel - large Russian Jewish Population
B. US offers to ' Trade ' Ukraine to Russia for help --- Ukraine is useful to US after all
C. Gathering legally with congress or ' improperly ' $ 250 Billion for Israel
and earmarking another tranche later.
..
.
Interesting take. One way or another, not one and done.
Trump solved a politically intractable Gordian knot. The US & Iran met in Oman two days prior to the strike, the US giving Iran advanced warning to prepare for these (impotent) strikes. Iran's response will be (intentionally) toothless. Both countries now have an off-ramp after stroking their hard-liners. This is essentially a replay of the 2020 Suleimani assassination and Iranian response of deliberately missing our military base.
Pundits are clueless and distraught that wide-spread peace will break out in the Middle East. You heard it here first.
..also heard it from Jeff Childers at https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/bomb-iran-sunday-june-22-2025-c-and
So Iran takes the off-ramp offered to it? Maybe. But they know deep down that any pause will be very short and temporary. The neocons and Zionists in the Beltway and Tel Aviv will never give up until Iran is destroyed.
I'm not convinced. This time is different. This is not about one guy--however important and popular--being murdered. This time a LOT of people were assassinated.
Just listened to Ritter, McGovern & Joe Lauria of Consortium News. I agree with their hope? advice? about Iran's response: DO NOT ATTACK USA, but pound the hell out of Israel.
I agree.
Listened to Iran's FM Araghchi's speech in Istanbul. His focus was on damage US actions have done to NPT and to UN. Araghchi is a Lavrov-calibre diplomat.
Also agree.
If Trump was so concerned to placate his Jewish pals, he should have spoken in Hebrew.
His comments to Americans, and to the RoW as putative leader of Americans was embarrassing, shameful, and so ignorant it made Ted Cruz look eloquent.
PS Mohawk: Zionists have a unique view of "peace." It emerges from the zionist hyper-embrace of the First commandment: "Thou shalt have no god before me." -- Jews are god's chosen; Rabbi Ken Spiro has been producing videos for years explaining that "chosen" means "Jews have the responsibility to teach the world morality -- kicking and screaming." iow, the essence of that form of religion is, Who is in charge. Spriro's form of Jewishness means Jews are in charge. That religion translates into, Peace means Jews are in charge.
I reject that.
And if what you are "telling us first" comes to pass, Mohawk, the world that emerges is not one I wish for my children and grandchildren.
I am in the same camp with you and the people you mentioned. Let Iran continue to bomb the Devil out of Israel. The path the Anglo-Zionist have mapped out is one of certain destruction for most of the world's populations. It has got to change.
Agreed about the strategy: leave the US alone for the time being and keep on hitting Israel.
Fallout shelters aren't designed to resist nuclear explosions, just to separate its occupants from fallout until it cools off enough to be around.
.
But this does raise the question; can Iran close the Straits of Hormuz?
Doubtful there would be closure as their appears no need, however selective access
was proven by Yemen , proven despite great effort of the US
Whether or not US escort can maintain access may be determined regardless
crew costs and insurance rates are certain to rise ; so either way this puts significant
financial strain on US
I imagine selective access with increased costs will accomplish the primary goal
or a good portion of it - Iran does not need full closure.
.
A good chat with Russia and China - following UN Article 51 - maintaining
access for some, will keep building international support for Iran whilst diminishing
international support for US
.
More would be accomplished by closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait than closing the strait of Hormuz. It would be easy to do by sinking the aircraft carrier that tossed off the fighter jet when it tries to leave the Red Sea. One or two of the hypersonic missiles the Houthis have would do the job.
.
Presumed is that Yemen and Iran act together and split the activities/work
that is both in shipping - and missiles to Israel
- so missiles are coming from two different directions and Israel US have to spread resources to cover both
.
Yemen has become self-sufficient in munitions and they can handle the Red Sea closure by themselves. If Iran sticks to its threat to attack American bases in the Middle East now that the US has entered the war, they might find that several of the other countries that are occupied by American bases will be their front men in those attacks. When the anti-missile missiles from the US start to dwindle, the Zionists might decide to exercise their Samson Option, which would end the fighting with widespread death and destruction.
Vonu "Yemen has become self-sufficient in munitions and they can handle the Red Sea closure by themselves."
Exactly what I had written or intended - split the work
Yemen will do it's thing - restrict access Red Sea
Iran will do it's thing - restrict access Hormuz
Very Simple.
Yemen isn't splitting the work with anyone.
Iran wouldn't be splitting the work with anyone.
They can both do what they are or would be doing by themselves, needing no help from anyone else.
How many are to the point of regretting Obama who would never have lit the match to start a second war against Russia, ie against the Iranians. Will this be Trump’s Vietnam? Funny how the Dems are aligned now with Trump (Uniparty) in their calls for war.
I couldn’t sleep last night so I turned onto YouTube and I caught Scott Ritter on with his analysis of the bombing raid.
His opinion was that two of the targets were just empty buildings, and that the bunker busting bombs probably did little to no damage to the main nuclear facility and it could be that they had already moved everything out of there as precaution .
So Trump’s attack on Iran may have done exactly nothing accomplished exactly nothing as Ritter says it it was to say face maybe more than anything else. I look forward to other opinions today, particularly on judge Napolitano’s show later on this morning.
I will say that the die hard MAGA Kool-Aid drinkers drank as much as possible last night. Free Republic was positively giddy with joy. Any chance of posting anything logical about what happened? Would invite nothing but scorn and derogatory remarks.
Either today or tomorrow when the dust settles, we’re probably going to get more reliable information on what happened. The one thing I’ll be watching tonight at about 6 PM is when the futures markets open and we see what it looks like then.
It is hard to save face when everything that comes out of it is a lie.
…and when the supposed face-saving measure instead actually blows up in your face.
Trump is shielded from the results of his narcissistic megalomania by MAGA meaning that Miriam Adelson Governs America.
Really starting to worry that he's gone POTATUS like Dementia Joe, or he took the buyout n joined the Uniparty. Guess we are going to find out soon enough.
Could be both.
The one weapon system that might work in this scenario is a hypersonic glide vehicle with a nuclear warhead. But the US does not have hypersonic weapons (Russia and Iran do) - apart from its ICBMs.
As you correctly analyse, the objective from an Iranian perspective is just to make insuring the ships prohibitive.
Second Sunday after Pentecost.
"I will not leave you orphans."
Meanwhile, missiles are still hitting Tel Aviv. They can't stop the hypersonics so they bombed non-existent nukes instead. Good strategy!