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Let‘ get a grip on here.

First of all, we all know “they” accuse the opponent of what they themselves are doing. – Sure, some will respond, but not when Russia or Putin are the targets. Well, in this case, the reality is much more intriguing, interesting. Two “grand events” are shaping the narratives, and the narratives can switch at a moment’s notice.

The first grand event is Afghanistan. Europe and the twin cocktail parties known as the EU and NATO are in the process of digesting the event of US military withdrawal: Whatever the US says, no, they do not have your back. Complain about it if you will, but it is a fact.

Consider, therefore, any statements from the Polish Defense Ministry with that fact in mind: Poland s under pressure from the EU and is called upon to pay 500,000 € per day in fines for failure to close a strip-mining coal site (Poland will not pay), which EU “guidelines” require and which the Poles have not closed. 70% of Poland’s energy I coal-based. It is supposed to comply with EU “green” idiocy. Poland is “at war” with the EU over the issue of supremacy of EU over Polish law and should pay 1 million € for not obeying the EU (Poland will not pay). And if Poland does not pay, the EU will withhold some millions € in “Covid aid”. Poland is now the “front line” NATO country, right on the border to Ukraine, which is imploding. And no, it is not imploding because of Russia, so Putin says, if I may summarize, “You broke it and I am supposed to pay for fixing it? Are you out of your mind?” Now, some 30,000 refugees, by some estimates, flow toward the Belarus-Polish border. Syrians, north Africans, Iraqis, and—lo and behold – Afghanis. Just as sure as Haitians did not walk to Central American countries to get into Mexico, from which location they are intent on getting into the USA, the refuges in Belarus did not walk there to walk to Poland to get to their final destination in their dream-land destination, Germany. The refugees in Belarus are not sent by Lukashenko to go anywhere: they want to get out and go to Germany. In Belarus or in Poland, Poland, they will freeze and are already freezing to death. Belarus-Lukashenko did not.

If you read the Russian press (not the generally open stuff like TASS, Sputnik, or RT), you will pick up hints that Polish authorities and politicians are sending out feelers to Russia. At the moment, however, that is on the quiet. Various European countries are waiting to see what happens, so the Polish Defense Ministry says Russia is playing hybrid war against Polish via Belarus. That is narrative. If it is true, EU-NATO, what are you going to do about it? If it is not true, what are you going to do about the fact that it is the Germans who do not want the refugees, but instead of trying to force the Poles to take them in, which Poland has refused to do up to now anyway, and that was when we were talking about refugees that were supposed to be distributed over EU countries if they came in by southern routes, the German sit back and spout the narrative that Lukashenko is now “forcing” the refugees on Poland, which he would not do without Putin’s green light?

That’s just great, and it is par for the course for the EU-NATO cocktail parties: they can always figure out how to blame someone for the problems they contributed to creating in the first place. Normally, that would be just fine because NATO is obsolete anyway and everyone is fine with that; which is why they don’t like party-poopers like Trump who simply say “NATO is obsolete”, but, with the withdrawal from Afghanistan on the mind, these are not normal times and each nation has to see where it has options. Will the Germans pay for the new Polish border fence if the EU is hell-bent on punishing Poland on all the other issues? Hmmm, tough call, after all, Germany is still an EU country, right? And Germany is full-insanity green agenda, right? And, let’s not forget, even a NATO country.

So the Polish Defense Ministry has to blame Belarus for a flow of refugees, who do not want to stay in Poland because they want to go to Germany, but Germany does not want them, so it’s all Putin’s fault, until the Polish government is far enough along with its “feelers” in the Russian direction that specific agreements are struck, so Warsaw can say, “you blowhards forced us to do it because you did not come to our aid in our hour of need.” And of course, the Poles know that neither NATO nor the EU is going to do anything because the configuration of the entire game has changed and individual countries are maneuvering to not be the first kid who declares that the emperor is naked. The Polish-Belarus border kerfuffle is a side-show. If the supra-national institutions cannot help, Poland has every reason and every right to look after itself.

If the EU-NATO cocktail parties are populated with nothing but idiots, is Putin splitting Europe?

In fact, Putin is doing nothing, but if the telephone rings, he will answer it.

We need to keep the other big event, or non-event in mind: the obvious – but I’ll bet money that no one in the US knows it – “color revolution” hybrid war against Lukashenko in Belarus was defeated and fizzled away. At the beginning of “Corona”, the IMF offered Lukashenko $980 million in “aid” under the condition of a full lockdown. Heroic Lukashenko refused, wisely, because, had he accepted the “aid”, the economic chaos would have swept the population into the Soros-Jesuit-led “opposition”. Poland hosted the social media networks that were organizing the “revolution”.

Well, no hard feelings, the Russians are now waiting to hear what ideas the Poles come up with now because, with the impending implosion of Ukraine, Poland has good reason to fear a flow of millions of refugees from Ukraine, and, as they have already experienced (while they refuse to accept the EU-distributed refugees from the south, Poland has already absorbed about 1 million from Ukraine), these will be people who do not integrate well into Polish society at all: they are as anti-Polish as they are anti-Russian, of course for very different reasons. These are the Bandera-Nazis the EU and NATO and the Germans could not find following the Biden-Nuland-John Brennan Maidan coup of 2014 in Kyiv.

It’s somewhat breathtaking when all the chickens come home to roost. – If you think “Biden” screwed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan, get your popcorn, because this one promises to be a real cliff-hanger. In fact, I am waiting for Mike Pompeo to say “Do you miss me yet?”

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https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4011211/posts

West bears blame for migrants flocking to Belarusian-Polish border — Russian FM

Tass ^ | November 9, 2021

In confirmation of what I've been saying:

"Let’s not pretend it started yesterday. The situation at the EU eastern border is just a part of the big picture. A failure to see it, to understand it and admit it - that’s what constitutes the twisting of facts and lying. Lying of the worst kind that can ever exist - lying to themselves,’’ she said.

...

There are many examples, the spokeswoman said. "The destruction of the Iraqi statehood, which happened due to the actions of the US administration and allied states, caused tectonic shifts in the region. The West-sponsored ‘’Arab spring,’’ the NATO campaign against Libya, the interference of the collective West in the affairs of Syria and the support of international terrorism there and, most importantly, the emergence of ISIS (the former name of the IS terrorist group, which is banned in Russia) on the ruins of the Iraqi state - all that has led to a mass exodus of refugees and migrants from that part of the world to Europe. And of course, the information campaigns that are founded on the humiliation of traditions and values of some peoples and cultures in favor of others," Zakharova said.

Lots to unpack there.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Poles are putting out "feelers" to Russia. They're the ones who have to live with Russia next door--for practical purposes.

I agree that Ukraine is a failed state, and that that is to no small extent the fault of US policy under the pre-Trump admins. Ukraine itself is ultimately to blame, but Russia can hardly be expected to be happy about our irresponsible "meddling." Poland is left in a box--wanting to be part of the EU/NATO world for economic and cultural reasons and thus having to please the US' changing policy demands, yet needing a modus vivendi with its eastern neighbors.

Nobody in the US understands most of this, and if they do they don't care.

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We never stop, however, to discern what Russia wants with these provocations or 'probes.' I don't think Putin wants to reassemble the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact. It is, however, in Russia's interest to convince the states on its periphery to reexamine their alliance w the West. Russia will likely never convince former satellites to love or even trust Russia, but if these states will merely be neutral, stop hosting US or EU forces, etc... that would ne a huge boost in Russian security. And Russia needs that as it faces a dangerous CCP in the resource rich East, to say nothing of the muslims states along its southern periphery.

So then, what to make of the Belarus provocations? What does Russia gain? It shows the Poles who has the power and who is weak. NATO won't help Poland w its border problems because the West doesn't believe in borders. Poland is being threatened by the EU w economic war for protecting its culture and demographics. The Poles may well rethink whether they can trust the West and realign accordingly. And that is the game of Russia and China now. To fully exploit the collapse of American credibility and strategic power such that no country will be willing to line up w the West. Russia can only survive in a fractured world order where it isn't ganged up on by the West. China is aiming to thoroughly dominate the East and needs all its neighbors to lose faith in American protection so they acquiesce to Chinese demands. Win without firing a shot. That's the ultimate strategy.

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Excellent points. The US spent the last 30 years pretending--for God knows what reasons, public manipulation?--that Russia is a threat to us. Meanwhile we ignored the China threat for all that time. Russia may be playing footsie with China right now, but I want to personally guarantee you of two things:

1. US crazy Russia policy forced Russia into that position; and

2. Putin is a smart guy and he fully understands that China is a long term threat to Russia--one that physically borders Russia where Russia is most overstretched.

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If Russia or China want to start grabbing real estate, it would seem now is the optimum time to do it. In the WH the lights are on but nobody’s home.

Never understood this continued demonization of Russia post -Soviet collapse. Think it’s the MIC along with the toady politicians that serve them. Probably starting with the Spanish-American War of 1898 we’ve been lied into more BS wars than legitimate ones.

Something that’s conveniently forgotten about “the Good War” (WWII) is FDR had the U.S. Navy waging a defacto undeclared war on the Kriegsmarine in 1941 with his directive that the U.S Navy would escort British convoys out to Iceland. This led to the sinking of the USS Reuben James on October 31, 1941 by U-552 with a heavy loss of life: “ The destroyer was not flying the Ensign of the United States, and was in the process of dropping depth charges on another U-boat when it was engaged.[3]” (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Reuben_James_(DD-245)

FDR should have been impeached.

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Power vacuum --> land grabs (both physical and political). Always has. Always will. Anyone who thinks this won't become a theme in the great vacuum of power known here as 'Zhou' is higher than a weather balloon and twice as airheaded.

The only thing holding bad actors back at all is fear of shocking the American voter into reality and replacing today's sorry excuse for leadership with one possessing a proper pair of stones.

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Meanwhile the Regime just sent the Director of the CIA on a diplomatic mission to Moscow (ostensibly to prevent war in Ukraine). And why not? If the CDC can take control of the housing market and OSHA can impose a medical treatment on workers, surely the CIA can take a crack at diplomacy. What a shit-show. Fart jokes indeed.

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I missed this totally but I could very well see Belarus acting like a North Korea on Russia's behalf.

Poland however is a NATO member so in all reality that would be the bigger question... Just to clarify I have about as much faith in NATO as I do our leadership.

I'm sure Mrs Dyer will have something to say shortly, though I have not see her publish on LU in a while.

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LU sort of disbanded and JE picked up the old blog again. https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/

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The failed 'color revolution' in Belarus was a US project. Poland and Lithuania would no more have done that on their own than Belarus would currently be yanking Polish/Lithuanian chains without Russia's go ahead. In fact, Poland and Lithuania should have known better than to go out on a limb at the urging of a feckless US, and I fault them for that foolishness.

As for "Russia is coming", read some history. Every country from the Arctic Circle to the Black Sea understands Russia as a threat. And has done for centuries.

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Russia has a brilliant policy of using proxy areas / regions as a way to exert pressure on neighbors that may want to drift to the West. They did this with Georgia (South Ossettia), Moldavia, and Donbas (Ukraine).

And after the emptiness of the promises the US and UK made to the Ukraine to have them give away their Nukes, there is very little credibility by the US. I am surprised that the West keeps on sending ships into the Black Sea. And the EU's credibility is not much better, with how they have hollowed out their military, and over reached with their demands on the social side.

And the breaking of Bush' promises to Russia on expanding NATO, by Clinton, are still reverberating in the US Russia relationship. And then you got the entire Steele Dossier that made alleged that Trump was a Putin Puppet, that further poisoned the relationship.

My pet theory, is China has been a lot smarter on purchasing Political Support in the US, than Russia. That has made Russia a safe enemy. Where China is too dangerous, politically and monetary, to label as an enemy since they will retaliate. That is why in Hollywood you have Russian Villains, often Nazi Russians, in Hollywood movies, where nobody dare does that to China.

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You know more about Central Europe than I do, and your favorite story about Poland/Lithuania is about ... the Caucasus?

I'm not particularly interested in your anti-Polish animus. You admit that everyone in the region has been "taking crap". Who was dishing it out? We know about the Germans in Poland and Czechia, but was there anyone else dishing out the crap throughout the region?

The Poles, meanwhile seem to have learned something from their past mistakes--cf. the Visegrad Group. And those other members 1. are willing to let bygones be bygones re the Poles (I think esp. of the Czechs) and 2. recognize that NATO is a questionable safeguard for them and they need other protections. Against whom? The Poles are far from the only ones who are concerned about Russia and its proxies.

I actually have a lot of respect for Putin as a leader. Part of being an effective leader involves recognizing limits to power projection and not overextending. Think about that in terms of past Russian moves. Putin may have been responding to gross provocations in Georgia and Ukraine (coming from the US), but that still doesn't lessen concerns of other nations in the area with a long history with Russia. That may not be entirely fair, but that's reality, comrade.

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Read everything I've written about Russia for years now. Putin, to his credit, rather than parroting hatred of the Polish 'Pans', attempted to reach out to Poland--an attempt that was aborted by a tragic air crash. At the same time, however, Russia has not been terribly understanding about regional concerns re energy--the hammer that Russia holds over them. Poking the Bear is a US ruling class sport for complex reasons, not a Central European one--unless goaded by the US.

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