I haven’t done any searches, but the only more or less in depth coverage of this story I’ve seen has been at TGP:
I’ll provide an excerpt describing the Polish view on what’s going on—it’s the official public version, but I’m quite sure their understanding is deeper than they let on.
Here’s the setting.
The US has an increasingly woke and dysfunctional military, with a SecDef who has shown himself to be a doofuss.
The US is in chaos, ruled by a discredited Regime by Committee with a puppet of a president who’s only worth to the world is for fart jokes. This travesty of an administration was put in place by collusion of the DC political elite against an effective and respected president.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a bungled tragedy. Even Obama officials are saying so.
A US submarine ran into an underwater mountain in the South China Sea—a huge embarrassment.
The US Marines were totally owned by the UK Marines in a major war game in the Mojave Desert—”dominated” by the UK forces, is the way the UK media describes this particular debacle. The US side was forced to surrender ignominiously just half way through.
The Zhou regime has adopted an open border policy. Poland is attempting to maintain the integrity of its borders.
OK.
International sharks can sense weakness and know how to probe a vulnerable country. America is now seen as vulnerable to such probing. Everybody knows that Putin is behind this “hybrid warfare” assault on a NATO member—Belarus wouldn’t attempt this stunt without Putin’s say-so. I’m sure Poland’s border police and military are brave, dedicate, and well trained. They’re not a match for Russia and they know it. That’s why they’re blaming Belarus, for public consumption. Putin knows that only the Zhou regime is capable of an effective counter to this, and he’s trying to find out how far he can push.
Here’s the Polish account, excerpted from TGP. There’s more at the link, including videos, above:
Earlier in the day, Polish authorities had warned that “a major shooting incident” could possibly occur because of rising tensions between them and Belarus. The sentiment was mirrored by Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister – Peter Wawrzyk – who also said earlier today that he believes “Belarus wants to cause a major incident, preferably with shots fired and casualties,” in a statement to local Polish radio stations.
The country’s Deputy PM – Jaroslaw Kaczynski – even called Belarus’ recent movements a form of “hybrid warfare.”
Poland’s officials see Lukashenko’s actions as a direct attack on their sovereignty as a country. According to the Polish Ministry of Defense, over 12,000 soldiers have been deployed alongside a fortified police force and a large group of volunteer guards who are all “prepared to defend the polish border.”
All of this is the result of 30 years of misguided, idiotic, policy towards Russia—culminating in the shameful public disgrace of the DC elite in the Russia Hoax. With the Zhou regime in increasing disarray this has the makings of a major disaster. Brought to you by the DC ruling elite.
Let‘ get a grip on here.
First of all, we all know “they” accuse the opponent of what they themselves are doing. – Sure, some will respond, but not when Russia or Putin are the targets. Well, in this case, the reality is much more intriguing, interesting. Two “grand events” are shaping the narratives, and the narratives can switch at a moment’s notice.
The first grand event is Afghanistan. Europe and the twin cocktail parties known as the EU and NATO are in the process of digesting the event of US military withdrawal: Whatever the US says, no, they do not have your back. Complain about it if you will, but it is a fact.
Consider, therefore, any statements from the Polish Defense Ministry with that fact in mind: Poland s under pressure from the EU and is called upon to pay 500,000 € per day in fines for failure to close a strip-mining coal site (Poland will not pay), which EU “guidelines” require and which the Poles have not closed. 70% of Poland’s energy I coal-based. It is supposed to comply with EU “green” idiocy. Poland is “at war” with the EU over the issue of supremacy of EU over Polish law and should pay 1 million € for not obeying the EU (Poland will not pay). And if Poland does not pay, the EU will withhold some millions € in “Covid aid”. Poland is now the “front line” NATO country, right on the border to Ukraine, which is imploding. And no, it is not imploding because of Russia, so Putin says, if I may summarize, “You broke it and I am supposed to pay for fixing it? Are you out of your mind?” Now, some 30,000 refugees, by some estimates, flow toward the Belarus-Polish border. Syrians, north Africans, Iraqis, and—lo and behold – Afghanis. Just as sure as Haitians did not walk to Central American countries to get into Mexico, from which location they are intent on getting into the USA, the refuges in Belarus did not walk there to walk to Poland to get to their final destination in their dream-land destination, Germany. The refugees in Belarus are not sent by Lukashenko to go anywhere: they want to get out and go to Germany. In Belarus or in Poland, Poland, they will freeze and are already freezing to death. Belarus-Lukashenko did not.
If you read the Russian press (not the generally open stuff like TASS, Sputnik, or RT), you will pick up hints that Polish authorities and politicians are sending out feelers to Russia. At the moment, however, that is on the quiet. Various European countries are waiting to see what happens, so the Polish Defense Ministry says Russia is playing hybrid war against Polish via Belarus. That is narrative. If it is true, EU-NATO, what are you going to do about it? If it is not true, what are you going to do about the fact that it is the Germans who do not want the refugees, but instead of trying to force the Poles to take them in, which Poland has refused to do up to now anyway, and that was when we were talking about refugees that were supposed to be distributed over EU countries if they came in by southern routes, the German sit back and spout the narrative that Lukashenko is now “forcing” the refugees on Poland, which he would not do without Putin’s green light?
That’s just great, and it is par for the course for the EU-NATO cocktail parties: they can always figure out how to blame someone for the problems they contributed to creating in the first place. Normally, that would be just fine because NATO is obsolete anyway and everyone is fine with that; which is why they don’t like party-poopers like Trump who simply say “NATO is obsolete”, but, with the withdrawal from Afghanistan on the mind, these are not normal times and each nation has to see where it has options. Will the Germans pay for the new Polish border fence if the EU is hell-bent on punishing Poland on all the other issues? Hmmm, tough call, after all, Germany is still an EU country, right? And Germany is full-insanity green agenda, right? And, let’s not forget, even a NATO country.
So the Polish Defense Ministry has to blame Belarus for a flow of refugees, who do not want to stay in Poland because they want to go to Germany, but Germany does not want them, so it’s all Putin’s fault, until the Polish government is far enough along with its “feelers” in the Russian direction that specific agreements are struck, so Warsaw can say, “you blowhards forced us to do it because you did not come to our aid in our hour of need.” And of course, the Poles know that neither NATO nor the EU is going to do anything because the configuration of the entire game has changed and individual countries are maneuvering to not be the first kid who declares that the emperor is naked. The Polish-Belarus border kerfuffle is a side-show. If the supra-national institutions cannot help, Poland has every reason and every right to look after itself.
If the EU-NATO cocktail parties are populated with nothing but idiots, is Putin splitting Europe?
In fact, Putin is doing nothing, but if the telephone rings, he will answer it.
We need to keep the other big event, or non-event in mind: the obvious – but I’ll bet money that no one in the US knows it – “color revolution” hybrid war against Lukashenko in Belarus was defeated and fizzled away. At the beginning of “Corona”, the IMF offered Lukashenko $980 million in “aid” under the condition of a full lockdown. Heroic Lukashenko refused, wisely, because, had he accepted the “aid”, the economic chaos would have swept the population into the Soros-Jesuit-led “opposition”. Poland hosted the social media networks that were organizing the “revolution”.
Well, no hard feelings, the Russians are now waiting to hear what ideas the Poles come up with now because, with the impending implosion of Ukraine, Poland has good reason to fear a flow of millions of refugees from Ukraine, and, as they have already experienced (while they refuse to accept the EU-distributed refugees from the south, Poland has already absorbed about 1 million from Ukraine), these will be people who do not integrate well into Polish society at all: they are as anti-Polish as they are anti-Russian, of course for very different reasons. These are the Bandera-Nazis the EU and NATO and the Germans could not find following the Biden-Nuland-John Brennan Maidan coup of 2014 in Kyiv.
It’s somewhat breathtaking when all the chickens come home to roost. – If you think “Biden” screwed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan, get your popcorn, because this one promises to be a real cliff-hanger. In fact, I am waiting for Mike Pompeo to say “Do you miss me yet?”
We never stop, however, to discern what Russia wants with these provocations or 'probes.' I don't think Putin wants to reassemble the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact. It is, however, in Russia's interest to convince the states on its periphery to reexamine their alliance w the West. Russia will likely never convince former satellites to love or even trust Russia, but if these states will merely be neutral, stop hosting US or EU forces, etc... that would ne a huge boost in Russian security. And Russia needs that as it faces a dangerous CCP in the resource rich East, to say nothing of the muslims states along its southern periphery.
So then, what to make of the Belarus provocations? What does Russia gain? It shows the Poles who has the power and who is weak. NATO won't help Poland w its border problems because the West doesn't believe in borders. Poland is being threatened by the EU w economic war for protecting its culture and demographics. The Poles may well rethink whether they can trust the West and realign accordingly. And that is the game of Russia and China now. To fully exploit the collapse of American credibility and strategic power such that no country will be willing to line up w the West. Russia can only survive in a fractured world order where it isn't ganged up on by the West. China is aiming to thoroughly dominate the East and needs all its neighbors to lose faith in American protection so they acquiesce to Chinese demands. Win without firing a shot. That's the ultimate strategy.