I don’t want to speculate on the current military situation in Ukraine because a lot remains unclear—speculation on events that are uncertain isn’t what this substack is about. Hopefully within a day or two we’ll be able to assess exactly what’s going on. However, I think this much can fairly be said. Putin has been trying to run this Special Military Operation more or less on the cheap—in terms of Russian casualties. The only way to explain the MOS so far is simply that: Putin wants to avoid casualties—for both sides, but especially for the Russian side for domestic political reasons. And that’s understandable. But it may no longer be possible. This is fairly typical Putin behavior, and it may be part of why the US has been, ever more aggressively, seeking to provoke an “overreaction” from Putin that could broaden the conflict. Part of the US reasoning may be that the longer this conflict goes on, the more leverage Russia will have over European countries—even those most hostile to Russia.
With all of the military and strategic brilliance that has been on display since the beginning of this situation, it absolutely wouldn’t surprise me if we “accidentally” stumble into a nuclear war. Of course it would be totally “ unexpected”.
I forgot who you were quoting Mark, but they were convinced that we were closer to the possibility of a nuclear war now than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis—-I agree with that assessment.
The most dangerous point is where one side is about to lose. My main worry has been that as Ukraine faces defeat, NATO will be tempted to step in with air attacks to stop it, leading to a nuclear conflagration. This could happen the other way, too, though- Russia losing the battle in Ukraine, leading to them escalating into a scorched earth policy of leveling Kiev with a tactical nuke, again leading to the end of the world. This is a war that should have been stopped last Fall, but we are led by clowns today.
Aarrgh! You just reminded me of the point that I forgot to include. Just a few days ago--interesting, the timing--the head military guy in Ukraine warned that Russia could go nuclear if it seems to be losing. Coincidence?
Sound like prep work for a false flag: they know they're about to make a push, they are confident in at least superficial or temporary success, and they intend to do something very horrible on top of it while blaming Russia.
With all of the military and strategic brilliance that has been on display since the beginning of this situation, it absolutely wouldn’t surprise me if we “accidentally” stumble into a nuclear war. Of course it would be totally “ unexpected”.
I forgot who you were quoting Mark, but they were convinced that we were closer to the possibility of a nuclear war now than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis—-I agree with that assessment.
Putin is a big believer in “never let a crises go to waste”.
I wonder what changes will happen due to this?
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/why-should-anyone-stuck-in-ukraine
I recommend this substack. Talented writer is a Ukraine born ethic slav with a pro Russia view and is a hard right nationalist.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
Interesting map of a future Ukraine.
I wonder where the major ammunition / weapon factories were located at the start of this war in the Ukraine.
It makes a lot of sense to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBm1n5yNVO4&ab_channel=JudgeNapolitano-JudgingFreedom
The most dangerous point is where one side is about to lose. My main worry has been that as Ukraine faces defeat, NATO will be tempted to step in with air attacks to stop it, leading to a nuclear conflagration. This could happen the other way, too, though- Russia losing the battle in Ukraine, leading to them escalating into a scorched earth policy of leveling Kiev with a tactical nuke, again leading to the end of the world. This is a war that should have been stopped last Fall, but we are led by clowns today.
Aarrgh! You just reminded me of the point that I forgot to include. Just a few days ago--interesting, the timing--the head military guy in Ukraine warned that Russia could go nuclear if it seems to be losing. Coincidence?
Sound like prep work for a false flag: they know they're about to make a push, they are confident in at least superficial or temporary success, and they intend to do something very horrible on top of it while blaming Russia.