I don’t want to speculate on the current military situation in Ukraine because a lot remains unclear—speculation on events that are uncertain isn’t what this substack is about. Hopefully within a day or two we’ll be able to assess exactly what’s going on. However, I think this much can fairly be said. Putin has been trying to run this Special Military Operation more or less on the cheap—in terms of Russian casualties. The only way to explain the MOS so far is simply that: Putin wants to avoid casualties—for both sides, but especially for the Russian side for domestic political reasons. And that’s understandable. But it may no longer be possible. This is fairly typical Putin behavior, and it may be part of why the US has been, ever more aggressively, seeking to provoke an “overreaction” from Putin that could broaden the conflict. Part of the US reasoning may be that the longer this conflict goes on, the more leverage Russia will have over European countries—even those most hostile to Russia.
The other side of the story is that Russians may be losing patience with Putin’s go slow approach. I offer some twitter opinions that may help explain the pressures Putin is facing and which may influence whatever he decides to do going forward:
I believe that in order to call up Russian reserves Putin may need to seek a declaration of war. I’m not positive about that, and I’m not sure how that works within the Russian political system—vote in the Duma? decision by the Security Council?—but it needs to be kept in mind. There would be politics involved.
Clint Ehrlich gets into the politics very briefly:
And he ends with this:
That’s a bit like the same suspects wishing for the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime. Remember the glorious future of Middle East peace and prosperity that was going to lead to? Be very careful what you wish for. Some people never learn.
With all of the military and strategic brilliance that has been on display since the beginning of this situation, it absolutely wouldn’t surprise me if we “accidentally” stumble into a nuclear war. Of course it would be totally “ unexpected”.
I forgot who you were quoting Mark, but they were convinced that we were closer to the possibility of a nuclear war now than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis—-I agree with that assessment.
Putin is a big believer in “never let a crises go to waste”.
I wonder what changes will happen due to this?