Putin Facing Domestic Backlash?

I don’t want to speculate on the current military situation in Ukraine because a lot remains unclear—speculation on events that are uncertain isn’t what this substack is about. Hopefully within a day or two we’ll be able to assess exactly what’s going on. However, I think this much can fairly be said. Putin has been trying to run this Special Military Operation more or less on the cheap—in terms of Russian casualties. The only way to explain the MOS so far is simply that: Putin wants to avoid casualties—for both sides, but especially for the Russian side for domestic political reasons. And that’s understandable. But it may no longer be possible. This is fairly typical Putin behavior, and it may be part of why the US has been, ever more aggressively, seeking to provoke an “overreaction” from Putin that could broaden the conflict. Part of the US reasoning may be that the longer this conflict goes on, the more leverage Russia will have over European countries—even those most hostile to Russia.

The other side of the story is that Russians may be losing patience with Putin’s go slow approach. I offer some twitter opinions that may help explain the pressures Putin is facing and which may influence whatever he decides to do going forward:

Tom @tom_username_

On Russian state TV, Moscow State University professor Vitaly Tretyakov said (and I'm paraphrasing): "The West thinks there will be social unrest in Russia in order to make the war stop. In reality, there will be social unrest if we don't become more active in this war."

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1

Reserves too slow to the front to prevent the manuever warfare overun. Russian forces retreating from Kharkov region to avoid encirclement. Eastern Ukrainian citizens who worked w or even just took aid from Russian troops will pay the heaviest price.

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1

Will the Kremlin now at last finally call up Russia's plentiful military reserves, expand the intervention force and get serious about this total war against Banderastan & NATO?

I believe that in order to call up Russian reserves Putin may need to seek a declaration of war. I’m not positive about that, and I’m not sure how that works within the Russian political system—vote in the Duma? decision by the Security Council?—but it needs to be kept in mind. There would be politics involved.

Clint Ehrlich gets into the politics very briefly:

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

This is a plausible forecast of how the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov region could end in strategic disaster. But a few caveats are in order: 1. The ability of Ukrainian forces to successfully mount an operation of this scale was unexpected, and is itself significant;

Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW

This latest Ukrainian offensive north of Izyum is their Battle of the Bulge - a desperate lunge with their last combat-capable units that will, in the end, result in little more than the destruction of those units and the substantial weakening of their operational situation. https://t.co/2xm7Gzj4T9

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

2. The apparent defeat of Russian forces, even if of little strategic import, has MASSIVE *propaganda value* for Ukraine. It both disheartens supporters of the war inside Russia and encourages greater Western support for Ukraine.

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

3. The loss of towns that are not themselves strategically significant still exposes pro-Russian residents to *retaliation* by Ukrainian forces. Seeing that Russia can lose territory it previously gained may deter individuals in the Donbas from e.g. acquiring Russian passports.

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

Collectively, these factors are non-trivial. Even if Russia ultimately encircles and defeats the Ukrainian forces mounting the offensive, this will still represent a failure by Russia's MoD. This is not the "special military operation" the Russian people were promised. Period.

And he ends with this:

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

It was a miracle that the collapse of the Soviet Union didn't result in nuclear detonations by warring factions or terrorists. People are hoping a military defeat in Ukraine will collapse Putin's government. They have no idea what they're trying to summon.

That’s a bit like the same suspects wishing for the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime. Remember the glorious future of Middle East peace and prosperity that was going to lead to? Be very careful what you wish for. Some people never learn.