I’ll be taking a bit of a mental health day, so to start things off I want to point to two not-too-long but insightful posts that discuss the dynamics of what Pelosi did, and its effects going forward.Thanks for reading Meaning In History!
The Russians and Chinese literally refuse to believe the American foreign policy establishment could be so stupendously stupid. Sounds like as good an epitaph for the Empire’s tombstone as I’ve heard so far.
Ok, off topic, but could someone explain to me how Chris Wray still has a job. I watched some of his testimony today, that is until I nearly smashed my phone! I mean the guy won’t answer a question of any kind and no one up there has the spine to call the guy out. And when Ted Cruz said that he didn’t think Wray personally subscribed to the current politicized nature of the FBI, I thought, well he’s the fricken director, how is that possible? It’s hard to watch this stuff and not lose your sanity.
Mark Twain was right when he described Congress a body with tongues so handy and information so uncertain.
The incompetent hoyden strikes again! So what if it’s destabilizing, so what if this bit of grandstanding makes it hard for Taiwan to function normally! She left and won’t be back, so it’s no skin off of her nose.
It absolutely terrifies me to think that this woman is anywhere in the line of succession.
Well, at least we know that the real reason the Chinese got so upset is because she’s a woman! Someone want to explain to me how she was able to make make that assertion? I didn’t think any democrat could define what a woman is. I’m confused.
A new Gallup poll has found that a mere 1 per cent of Americans view Russia as a major problem, with far more concern expressed about inflation, bad governance and the state of the economy. Shortly after Russia’s invasion, the issue was seen as a top priority, but now just 1 per cent of Americans believe it is the most important issue facing the nation. In contrast, 17 per cent of Americans see inflation as the most important problem right now, along with 17 per cent who say it’s bad government and 12 per cent concerned about the economy
A positive of the Assange / Bradley Manning / Wikileaks release of the secret us diplomatic cables, was it showed what the us said in public, it also said privately.
I’m still not understanding the why of the Pelosi visit. It seemed designed to deliberately embarrass China with the timing. My guess was Pelosi thought it would generate lots of positive press, and replicate her Kiev, Ukraine photo op.
Taiwan’s Green Party is happy to provoke China, and show how bad China is. And a positive of this snafu is Pelosi gets the blame. They figure China wants to take over Taiwan, and they are trying to prevent that from happening. So they are focused on quietly reducing economic ties to China, and building up the Taiwan military.
Regarding China's failure to back up their immediate threats; I don't think anything the Chinese do is spontaneous, including the angry rhetoric we heard. It's entirely possible making such empty threats was a deliberate ploy to appear full of hot air while the real sucker punch will land some time from now when least expected. They've got plans afoot, of that there can be little doubt.
Thanks for the clarification, Amanda. The results will probably be more Chinese measures to hurt the US economy - something that both the CCP and the US Dems want.
"his military posturing will be aided by selected economic sanctions designed to remove the support for Taiwan's current pro-independence government:"
Economic sanctions rarely ever work. The sanctions against Russia have accomplished little, and I doubt anyone here is surprised by that. In all honesty, I doubt that China's sanctions on Taiwan over the visit by the old dingbat crazy lady will change a lot of Taiwanese minds.
The Pelosi visit was an act of folly and no responsible statesman would ever have condoned it. The Washington establishment simply lacks the basic diplomatic skills of conflict management that European statesmen had before World War I. back then it was understood that the goal was to manage Great Power disagreements in a manner that did not result in a Great Power War. This is like Beavis and Butt-Head playing with blasting caps. That said, I don't think China's response is likely to get them what they want, but we'll see.
Sanctions are a relative matter. While sanctions against Russia have accomplished little, that's because Russia isn't vulnerable to them. A relatively small island country like Taiwan is less able to establish economic independence like that of Russia and thus may be more vulnerable to targeted sanctions. Taiwan's economy, like that of SKorea and Japan, is highly dependent on China.
As for changing Taiwanese minds, China may not need to change that many minds. Polling on these issues suggests that the largest group of Taiwanese--perhaps a majority--simply would like to preserve the status quo:
As in other countries the polling results vary from poll to poll and from year to year, depending on a variety of factors. However, the status quo is exactly what Pelosi is upsetting. I'd also bet that neighboring countries such as SKorea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia do not appreciate an increase in tensions.
BTW, you never responded when I provided links showing that Russia provides oil to China (in addition to gas) via two pipelines as well as by ship. And in large amounts. China also has huge storage capacity.
For some years now, China has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion of its enemies, and I think this is likely to be another example. We'll see how this one goes. I expect it to backfire. If I'm wrong, and I have in the past not been infallible, you can have a big old gloat.
I'm aware that Russia provides China with oil. I do not believe that Russia can supply enough oil or grain to replace what China gets from all other sources. In my view, China has no credible military options against America or Japan, and an invasion of Taiwan would be something of a gamble, even if America stayed out. I think the danger of war with China, while greater than zero, is overstated. This does not, repeat not, constitute an endorsement of what passes for American policy these days.
One additional comment. Taiwan has been slack and negligent in preparing for its own defense. If Taiwan will not require military service of its youth, then I doubt the average American would be willing to send American kids to do the dying.
I don't know why the image of me gloating keeps coming up in your comments. Whatever ...
"I do not believe that Russia can supply enough oil or grain to replace what China gets from all other sources."
Sources? Russia is the largest exporter of grain in the world. China is a very large producer. Among grain importing countries China ranks #3, at about 4.6%, down among countries with a fraction of its population. Similarly with oil. Russia has large reserves--much larger than the US--but consumes only a tiny fraction of what we do. Russia was #2 exporter of oil to China last year, probably #1 this year. You suppose that the US can enforce a world oil embargo on China. I think that's a major stretch, given that we can't even keep the EU in line with oil sanctions against Russia. As I said before, a US-China war would harm our "allies" as much as it would harm China. Doesn't mean it wouldn't happen, but would likely be our choice.
"China has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion of its enemies"
But the US has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion not only of Russia and China--which certainly outweighs our allies--but also has drawn other major countries away. After a brief flirtation under Trump, India has returned to Russia as its major arms supplier. Turkey is drifting away from NATO--buying arms from Russia. Iran is moving into alignment with Russia. KSA and Egypt are also moving in that direction. Meanwhile the EU is fragmenting.
True, but not relevant to the point I was making. Taiwan had to expect some sort of reaction from China to the Pelosi visit, but they went ahead anyway, and what we've seen so far doesn't strike me as something that would make Taiwan regret its actions. Being deprived of sand is a hardship, I suppose, but it strikes me as a violation of Machiavelli's warning about doing a man a small injury. (True of most sanctions, actually.) Ineffective sanctions, which is what I suspect these are, may have the effect of hardening Taiwan's resolve, just as ineffective sanctions on Russia likely hardened their resolve.
Partly disagree. I think the opposition to China is not cohesive; it's ambivalent at best. Many countries are forced to trade with China but don't like her. Others recognize that China is the new superpower and play along. Yet other nations like the fact that China is peeing off the US. As for war, China can defeat America without it. Like Putin, all they have to do is wait while the US (and the West in general) disintegrates under its own insanity.
Taiwan is politically divided, and the major Taiwan media is aligned with the KMT / Blue Party. And foreign media gets its news from the local major media. It’s very incestrious.
And rumor is China has through various means, good access into the local large media.
China has already played the sanctions card on Taiwan under a previous President, so there was not much left.
The alternate media, youtube etc., is big in Taiwan. Lots of talk shows, Green Party.
Nevertheless, if you look at the total popular votes for Pan Green (pro Taiwan Statehood) v. Pan Blue and others that support either status quo or some type of reunification (i.e., oppose statehood) you'll find that the popular division is not nearly as lopsided as one might suppose from the Yuan seat counts. In fact, you might find that the popular vote mirrors most of the polls.
The state of opinion is not simple, and certainly not simply pro-statehood/independence. It depends and is more likely subject to very pragmatic considerations, as one might expect.
The Taiwan pro unification faction took a huge blow with China’s actions in Hong Kong, as well as Chinas other bullying activities, such as having Who ostracize them.
The only faction overwhelmingly favoring fighting China if attacked, are the Greens. Yet, the Military historically is allied with the Blue (KMT) party.
My take is the Taiwan President is the super star of her party.
I’m surprised Taiwan is still in Covid Hysteria mode.
Absolutely spot-on, especially the part about Neocon "diplomacy." It's almost as if our entire leadership never learned their schoolyard lessons of working things out in a chaotic world so we can all get along. Indeed, Tony Blinken and crew strike me as precisely the types who stayed indoors with the teacher at recess because the boys were "roughhousing." Zero real-world skills.
Enjoy your mental health day. Well-earned, as it's a boost to my own mental health knowing there are still sane, clear-eyed analysts out there.
It's hardly surprising that there are so many conspiracy theories in the air. Surely they can't be this stupid, is what most people think. There has to be some secret plan!
Friedman is living in some alternative reality--not the one that exists on this planet.
1. If Europe really were in an existential war with Russia, as he says or repeats, Europe would be fighting for themselves or supplying Ukraine with weaponry. All accounts indicate that the US is the only country providing anything remotely like effective aid--and that in insufficient amounts. Other countries are largely dumping obsolete equipment (Polish T-72s, which are inferior to the Ukrainian T-62s, etc.) on the promise of updated US equipment in the future. Germany is reneging on the deal the Poles thought they had to replace the T-72s with Leopards 2s. Nothing has been done to challenge Russian air superiority.
2. There have been repeated *confirmed* reports of Ukrainian units refusing to fight and unilaterally pulling back because of lack of equipment with which to counter Russian artillery. That is not the sign of an army that's about to win--not now, not ever.
3. The true, and stated, US foreign policy is that the world should be a unipolar (US) rules based order. That unrealistic policy is what is the direct threat to stability. The engagement of US military officers directing strikes that include civilian targets--per Amnesty International--has been called out by the Russians. It's not smart but, yes, "we are indisputably in this war."
4. Meanwhile Ukrainian leadership is riven by multiple divisions and internal squabbles. There are disagreements over strategy between Zelensky and the military and between the military and NATO. We tried the strategy of replacing allied leaders during a war with Diem, and it didn't turn out well then--nor is it likely to turn out well now. The Europeans, now also including the UK, are finding ever more ways to gut the sanctions, while Russia for its part tightens the screws as multiple European governments topple.
5. The notion of China providing Russia military aid is utterly daft. Russia is the supplier of military aid to China. Russia has vast manufacturing capabilities in the military field and vast inventories of equipment and munitions--unlike the West.
6. If Russia were feeling pressure they'd be returning phone calls. Instead the US finds itself resorting to op-eds and unusual public states trying to elicit a response from Russia. Russia essentially ignores it all or provides only perfunctory responses that reject our premises.
So Pelosi brings us a step closer to some kind of war just to save a few seats in November? The horrible truth is that she is evil and stupid enough to do just that.
Very plausible. However, China seems to have many goals: yes, keep Trump and Maga out, but also carry on with the overall aim of weakening America's economy.
Point 3 is the key one. Most of our antibiotics are produced in China, as are a whole host of other vital things. A key diplomatic goal of the West should have been tattooed on the heads of its leaders: don't piss off Russia or China!
The Russians and Chinese literally refuse to believe the American foreign policy establishment could be so stupendously stupid. Sounds like as good an epitaph for the Empire’s tombstone as I’ve heard so far.
Ok, off topic, but could someone explain to me how Chris Wray still has a job. I watched some of his testimony today, that is until I nearly smashed my phone! I mean the guy won’t answer a question of any kind and no one up there has the spine to call the guy out. And when Ted Cruz said that he didn’t think Wray personally subscribed to the current politicized nature of the FBI, I thought, well he’s the fricken director, how is that possible? It’s hard to watch this stuff and not lose your sanity.
Mark Twain was right when he described Congress a body with tongues so handy and information so uncertain.
The incompetent hoyden strikes again! So what if it’s destabilizing, so what if this bit of grandstanding makes it hard for Taiwan to function normally! She left and won’t be back, so it’s no skin off of her nose.
It absolutely terrifies me to think that this woman is anywhere in the line of succession.
Well, at least we know that the real reason the Chinese got so upset is because she’s a woman! Someone want to explain to me how she was able to make make that assertion? I didn’t think any democrat could define what a woman is. I’m confused.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/08/04/south-korean-president-snubs-nancy-pelosi-as-us-power-in-the-pacific-drains-away-n606892
We Can Shut Down Churches and Schools For a Virus, But Not Bathhouses?
https://redstate.com/kiradavis/2022/08/04/we-can-shut-down-churches-and-schools-for-a-virus-but-not-bathhouses-n606931
A new Gallup poll has found that a mere 1 per cent of Americans view Russia as a major problem, with far more concern expressed about inflation, bad governance and the state of the economy. Shortly after Russia’s invasion, the issue was seen as a top priority, but now just 1 per cent of Americans believe it is the most important issue facing the nation. In contrast, 17 per cent of Americans see inflation as the most important problem right now, along with 17 per cent who say it’s bad government and 12 per cent concerned about the economy
A positive of the Assange / Bradley Manning / Wikileaks release of the secret us diplomatic cables, was it showed what the us said in public, it also said privately.
I’m still not understanding the why of the Pelosi visit. It seemed designed to deliberately embarrass China with the timing. My guess was Pelosi thought it would generate lots of positive press, and replicate her Kiev, Ukraine photo op.
Taiwan’s Green Party is happy to provoke China, and show how bad China is. And a positive of this snafu is Pelosi gets the blame. They figure China wants to take over Taiwan, and they are trying to prevent that from happening. So they are focused on quietly reducing economic ties to China, and building up the Taiwan military.
Regarding China's failure to back up their immediate threats; I don't think anything the Chinese do is spontaneous, including the angry rhetoric we heard. It's entirely possible making such empty threats was a deliberate ploy to appear full of hot air while the real sucker punch will land some time from now when least expected. They've got plans afoot, of that there can be little doubt.
From the MoA article and Mark's summary, I think the Chinese are actually backing up their words.
I was referring their warnings regarding Pelosi's flight and threats of forcing it to land etc. But you're right - they're ramping up now.
Thanks for the clarification, Amanda. The results will probably be more Chinese measures to hurt the US economy - something that both the CCP and the US Dems want.
Having worked Chinese matters for about 12 years, I agree. The Chinese are not inclined to ad lib.
"his military posturing will be aided by selected economic sanctions designed to remove the support for Taiwan's current pro-independence government:"
Economic sanctions rarely ever work. The sanctions against Russia have accomplished little, and I doubt anyone here is surprised by that. In all honesty, I doubt that China's sanctions on Taiwan over the visit by the old dingbat crazy lady will change a lot of Taiwanese minds.
The Pelosi visit was an act of folly and no responsible statesman would ever have condoned it. The Washington establishment simply lacks the basic diplomatic skills of conflict management that European statesmen had before World War I. back then it was understood that the goal was to manage Great Power disagreements in a manner that did not result in a Great Power War. This is like Beavis and Butt-Head playing with blasting caps. That said, I don't think China's response is likely to get them what they want, but we'll see.
Sanctions against Russia worked very well - for Russia.
Sanctions are a relative matter. While sanctions against Russia have accomplished little, that's because Russia isn't vulnerable to them. A relatively small island country like Taiwan is less able to establish economic independence like that of Russia and thus may be more vulnerable to targeted sanctions. Taiwan's economy, like that of SKorea and Japan, is highly dependent on China.
As for changing Taiwanese minds, China may not need to change that many minds. Polling on these issues suggests that the largest group of Taiwanese--perhaps a majority--simply would like to preserve the status quo:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement#Opinion_polls
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/12/30/2003770419
As in other countries the polling results vary from poll to poll and from year to year, depending on a variety of factors. However, the status quo is exactly what Pelosi is upsetting. I'd also bet that neighboring countries such as SKorea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia do not appreciate an increase in tensions.
BTW, you never responded when I provided links showing that Russia provides oil to China (in addition to gas) via two pipelines as well as by ship. And in large amounts. China also has huge storage capacity.
For some years now, China has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion of its enemies, and I think this is likely to be another example. We'll see how this one goes. I expect it to backfire. If I'm wrong, and I have in the past not been infallible, you can have a big old gloat.
I'm aware that Russia provides China with oil. I do not believe that Russia can supply enough oil or grain to replace what China gets from all other sources. In my view, China has no credible military options against America or Japan, and an invasion of Taiwan would be something of a gamble, even if America stayed out. I think the danger of war with China, while greater than zero, is overstated. This does not, repeat not, constitute an endorsement of what passes for American policy these days.
One additional comment. Taiwan has been slack and negligent in preparing for its own defense. If Taiwan will not require military service of its youth, then I doubt the average American would be willing to send American kids to do the dying.
I don't know why the image of me gloating keeps coming up in your comments. Whatever ...
"I do not believe that Russia can supply enough oil or grain to replace what China gets from all other sources."
Sources? Russia is the largest exporter of grain in the world. China is a very large producer. Among grain importing countries China ranks #3, at about 4.6%, down among countries with a fraction of its population. Similarly with oil. Russia has large reserves--much larger than the US--but consumes only a tiny fraction of what we do. Russia was #2 exporter of oil to China last year, probably #1 this year. You suppose that the US can enforce a world oil embargo on China. I think that's a major stretch, given that we can't even keep the EU in line with oil sanctions against Russia. As I said before, a US-China war would harm our "allies" as much as it would harm China. Doesn't mean it wouldn't happen, but would likely be our choice.
"China has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion of its enemies"
But the US has thrown its weight around in ways that have increased the cohesion not only of Russia and China--which certainly outweighs our allies--but also has drawn other major countries away. After a brief flirtation under Trump, India has returned to Russia as its major arms supplier. Turkey is drifting away from NATO--buying arms from Russia. Iran is moving into alignment with Russia. KSA and Egypt are also moving in that direction. Meanwhile the EU is fragmenting.
"But the US has thrown its weight around"
True, but not relevant to the point I was making. Taiwan had to expect some sort of reaction from China to the Pelosi visit, but they went ahead anyway, and what we've seen so far doesn't strike me as something that would make Taiwan regret its actions. Being deprived of sand is a hardship, I suppose, but it strikes me as a violation of Machiavelli's warning about doing a man a small injury. (True of most sanctions, actually.) Ineffective sanctions, which is what I suspect these are, may have the effect of hardening Taiwan's resolve, just as ineffective sanctions on Russia likely hardened their resolve.
Partly disagree. I think the opposition to China is not cohesive; it's ambivalent at best. Many countries are forced to trade with China but don't like her. Others recognize that China is the new superpower and play along. Yet other nations like the fact that China is peeing off the US. As for war, China can defeat America without it. Like Putin, all they have to do is wait while the US (and the West in general) disintegrates under its own insanity.
Taiwan is politically divided, and the major Taiwan media is aligned with the KMT / Blue Party. And foreign media gets its news from the local major media. It’s very incestrious.
And rumor is China has through various means, good access into the local large media.
China has already played the sanctions card on Taiwan under a previous President, so there was not much left.
The alternate media, youtube etc., is big in Taiwan. Lots of talk shows, Green Party.
Nevertheless, if you look at the total popular votes for Pan Green (pro Taiwan Statehood) v. Pan Blue and others that support either status quo or some type of reunification (i.e., oppose statehood) you'll find that the popular division is not nearly as lopsided as one might suppose from the Yuan seat counts. In fact, you might find that the popular vote mirrors most of the polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_Republic_of_China#Legislative_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Taiwan#Parties_with_national_or_local_representation
The state of opinion is not simple, and certainly not simply pro-statehood/independence. It depends and is more likely subject to very pragmatic considerations, as one might expect.
The Taiwan pro unification faction took a huge blow with China’s actions in Hong Kong, as well as Chinas other bullying activities, such as having Who ostracize them.
The only faction overwhelmingly favoring fighting China if attacked, are the Greens. Yet, the Military historically is allied with the Blue (KMT) party.
My take is the Taiwan President is the super star of her party.
I’m surprised Taiwan is still in Covid Hysteria mode.
Absolutely spot-on, especially the part about Neocon "diplomacy." It's almost as if our entire leadership never learned their schoolyard lessons of working things out in a chaotic world so we can all get along. Indeed, Tony Blinken and crew strike me as precisely the types who stayed indoors with the teacher at recess because the boys were "roughhousing." Zero real-world skills.
Enjoy your mental health day. Well-earned, as it's a boost to my own mental health knowing there are still sane, clear-eyed analysts out there.
It's hardly surprising that there are so many conspiracy theories in the air. Surely they can't be this stupid, is what most people think. There has to be some secret plan!
Friedman is living in some alternative reality--not the one that exists on this planet.
1. If Europe really were in an existential war with Russia, as he says or repeats, Europe would be fighting for themselves or supplying Ukraine with weaponry. All accounts indicate that the US is the only country providing anything remotely like effective aid--and that in insufficient amounts. Other countries are largely dumping obsolete equipment (Polish T-72s, which are inferior to the Ukrainian T-62s, etc.) on the promise of updated US equipment in the future. Germany is reneging on the deal the Poles thought they had to replace the T-72s with Leopards 2s. Nothing has been done to challenge Russian air superiority.
2. There have been repeated *confirmed* reports of Ukrainian units refusing to fight and unilaterally pulling back because of lack of equipment with which to counter Russian artillery. That is not the sign of an army that's about to win--not now, not ever.
3. The true, and stated, US foreign policy is that the world should be a unipolar (US) rules based order. That unrealistic policy is what is the direct threat to stability. The engagement of US military officers directing strikes that include civilian targets--per Amnesty International--has been called out by the Russians. It's not smart but, yes, "we are indisputably in this war."
4. Meanwhile Ukrainian leadership is riven by multiple divisions and internal squabbles. There are disagreements over strategy between Zelensky and the military and between the military and NATO. We tried the strategy of replacing allied leaders during a war with Diem, and it didn't turn out well then--nor is it likely to turn out well now. The Europeans, now also including the UK, are finding ever more ways to gut the sanctions, while Russia for its part tightens the screws as multiple European governments topple.
5. The notion of China providing Russia military aid is utterly daft. Russia is the supplier of military aid to China. Russia has vast manufacturing capabilities in the military field and vast inventories of equipment and munitions--unlike the West.
6. If Russia were feeling pressure they'd be returning phone calls. Instead the US finds itself resorting to op-eds and unusual public states trying to elicit a response from Russia. Russia essentially ignores it all or provides only perfunctory responses that reject our premises.
Right. I wasn't disagreeing with you.
So Pelosi brings us a step closer to some kind of war just to save a few seats in November? The horrible truth is that she is evil and stupid enough to do just that.
Very plausible. However, China seems to have many goals: yes, keep Trump and Maga out, but also carry on with the overall aim of weakening America's economy.
Sadly true. For US politicians there's nothing to lose, personally, and likely something tangible to gain by bashing foreign boogeymen.
Another interesting strand is the new Wuhan lockdown. Maybe they are trying to ween themselves off the US markets and screw the US economy too.
Point 3 is the key one. Most of our antibiotics are produced in China, as are a whole host of other vital things. A key diplomatic goal of the West should have been tattooed on the heads of its leaders: don't piss off Russia or China!
Yves Smith was quite vocal yesterday (?) about the many vital "choke points" that China possesses vis a vis the US.