Perspectives On Nan's Excellent Asian Adventure

I’ll be taking a bit of a mental health day, so to start things off I want to point to two not-too-long but insightful posts that discuss the dynamics of what Pelosi did, and its effects going forward.

Moon of Alabama has a very good piece, which points out some of the larger implications for what looks increasingly like grandstanding for the domestic political front:

How Pelosi's Visit Hurts Taiwan

Moon begins by mentioning the now upcoming Chinese live fire drills, which will ignore heretofore respected lines in the … water. Obviously this will basically amount to a blockade, since no shipper will want to come near those activities. As you’ll see from the map, one of the areas is in very close proximity to Taiwan’s major port of Kaohsiung:

But here are the additional issues Moon discusses, with links to other sources:

• Many analysts these disruptive live fire drills may become routine, which will have a serious effect on trade for Taiwan.

• China is also imposing selective trade restrictions, “including a ban on the export of natural sand, and a halt on imports of fish and fruit products from the island.”

As Moon points out, the ban on exports of natural sand to Taiwan—and China is by far the major source for natural sand—will hit Taiwan’s construction industry hard. Sand is required for concrete. Thus, costs will skyrocket.

• China will “sanction” persons and organizations that have supported Taiwanese secessionists.

• Moon also cites a Guardian article that reports that 2/3 of Taiwanese believed that Pelosi’s grandstanding was “destabilizing.”

• Other observers found Pelosi’s responses to questions from Taiwanese “tone deaf”. When asked about the possible effects of her trip on Taiwan’s economy Pelosi responded that many Taiwanese businesses were already planning to relocate to the US.

Moon observes that "You will get sanctioned while we will steal your prime advantage in chip manufacturing," is not exactly an uplifting message.

• Yesterday we reported the negative South Korean reaction—failing to offer an official greeting to Pelosi. Pelosi was reportedly miffed, but the NYT observes that other regional countries also felt that Pelosi’s stunt was counter productive:

Pelosi’s visit may also damage a push by the White House to shore up support against China from key allies in the region who analysts say have felt sidelined by the trip, and frustrated by the spiraling tensions.

None of this helps Taiwanese. However, neither does it help the United States, which will be correctly perceived to care little for the interests of its “allies”.

For a different perspective, see Larry Johnson:

WHY IT IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE OTHER “GUY” THINKS

Johnson believes China was foolish to make threats that it didn’t then back up with action. I’m not so sure, but of course there’s always a case for that position. Failure to follow through does introduce a degree of uncertainty into relations and can even lead to a perception that China is somehow toothless or lacking in willingness to defend its interests.

Johnson also notes, on the other hand, that the US has also been sending confusing signals, which reinforce foreign perceptions of the US which may not conform with reality and which certainly harm US interests:

So do you think it matters if the United States correctly understands what the leaders of Russia and China are thinking? And, conversely, does it matter if the leaders of Russia and China correctly discern the intentions of U.S. leaders? The answer–YES on both counts.

Sadly, my impression is that a large majority of Americans do NOT believe that what foreign leaders think actually matters. The common view—expressed so well by Don Surber yesterday—is that America is right and anyone we don’t like or who disagrees with us is wrong, and that’s the end of it. The Neocon version of “diplomacy”—foreigners can be our vassals or our enemies, they can like it or lump it—has been our default version of diplomacy for several decades. There’s no point in trying to understand non-Americans because the world is a simple place. Anyway, wars are things that happen far away to people we don’t know. Or some version of that.

What did the Chinese (and the Russians as well) perceive? They saw political schizophrenia in Washington. On the one had, spokes-model John Kirby insisted that the United States still opposed “independence” for Taiwan and accepted as policy that Taiwan is part of China. But then you have Pelosi and other members of Congress declaring their support for a “democratically free” Taiwan–codeword for “independent”. Raising the valid question–is anyone in charge? Who is calling the shots?

In my experience in dealing with senior officials from more than 65 governments, there is a surprising consensus. Almost all believe that the publicly stated position of the United States is a deception or a half-truth and that the U.S. is playing stupid or crazy in order to hide a shrewd, complex plan. For example, in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, I was questioned by officials from several governments (I was teaching a Senior Crisis Management Seminar for the State Department’s Anti-Terrorism Assistance Training Program) about what was the real purpose/objective in taking out Saddam and disbanding Iraq. What was our real plan, they wanted to know.

When I tried to explain there was no hidden strategy behind the chaos that was unleashed in Iraq because the Bush team failed to put in place a stable government, my foreign interlocutors did not believe me. ...

What makes the current international situation so perilous, whether you are looking at China or at Russia in Ukraine, are misconceptions compounded by failures in communication. … There is credible evidence that Russia’s previous belief that there was a way to find mutual agreement between Moscow and Washington has been irretrievably ruptured.

We face a comparable dilemma in the breakdown of communication between Washington and Beijing. False assumptions reinforced by wrong conclusions almost inevitably lead to a deadly miscalculation. Normally, the national intelligence agencies of a nation are supposed to provide a dose of truth and reality. That is the real danger facing America now. The CIA and the FBI are politically compromised and are institutionally averse to telling the President and his team they are wrong. While I no longer have access to current U.S. intelligence, I still hear things through the grapevine of former colleagues and the news is unsettling. …