This morning Larry Johnson features an article by Michał Krupa, whom I take to be an American expat living in Poland. The article is an exposition of an essay by “Professor Stanisław Bieleń, eminent University of Warsaw scholar of Internationals Relations.” The title of Krupa’s piece suggests one of the themes of Bieleń’s essay—the misguided Polish policy of seeking to weaken its hated centuries long adversary, Russia, by enlisting as the unswerving vassal of the American Deep State. Bieleń believes that behind this misguided policy is the Polish desire to once again play a role in great power geopolitics:
"The EU as an alternative power centre". It's good to laugh in the mornings! The EU is leaching power by the day and has no future. It will either collapse because of its internal contradictions or remain as a powerless relic like the Hapsburg Empire. As for Poland, it obviously suffers from delusions of grandeur and is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Poles are definitely caught between a rock and a hard place--their whole history is about their struggle against that. They're still at it. The typical Russian take on Poles is that they need to get over thinking their Westerners and embrace their Slavicness. Of course, Poles resent the implication that being Slavic and being Russian amounts to the same thing. I think most Russians are more willing now to come to terms with Poland as Slavic but not Russian, but Poles still have this unrequited love for the West. But if you consider that Western civilization is largely a product of the Roman Empire--which it is--then it's clear that Poland has always been well outside that world. Poland is too big to be insignificant, but too small to be a real power player. They need to find a role, and scorned suitor to the West isn't working.
All true. I remember Poland being described by a military historian as excellent tank country between the East and the West. That about sums up its predicament. However, at least on the surface, Poland seemed to have been on the way to carving out a post-historic identity for itself in recent years: a strong traditional culture married to a growing market economy; a member of the EU but holding fast to its hard-won identity. Now they seem to be about to throw it all to the winds. I guess nations are like people: they never know what they've got until it's gone.
Poland's dilemma today reminds me of a high school popularity contest. In any high school class of any size there were always 5 or 10 kids who were widely acknowledged to be undoubtedly popular and/or powerful, whether by reason of personality, athleticism, looks, or qualities of mind. Then there were also a few wannabes who felt they deserved to be in the inner circle but really didn't 'pack the gear'. Poland reminds me of one of these. Like any high school student mistakenly seeking power but not likely to obtain it, Poland should simply accept its place, make real friends, do its homework and go about its life.
I would also observe...and this observation may well be totally out of bounds...but any political construct (in this case, Poland) which in the 1930s had the ability to totally alienate both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union has a special talent. Of course, I may well be wrong.
Lastly, as I warn all my European friends: don't trust the US with your life. There is a reckoning coming and if you want to be standing at the end, look out for No.1. The US certainly won't look out for you when push comes to shove.
The interwar period is complicated. Neither Germany nor Russia/USSR were reconciled to Poland's existence--they thought that problem had been solved permanently by the partitions of Poland. So Poland's unrealistic ambitions for leading a new Intermarium were, in that sense, irrelevant.
OTOH, the post WW2 changed a lot of things. Yes, Poland's sovereignty was limited by USSR domination, for defensive purposes of the USSR. The post Cold War period, I would argue, has shown that the new Russian Federation can be reconciled to a sovereign Poland--on condition of that Poland being reconciled to Russian concerns about Western hostility.
The point of no return has not been reached, despite Poland's active role in the war on Russia. But it will require Poland to do some real soul searching--not an easy thing.
This was my reaction, also. I'm one of those (I imagine many) Mark introduced to Tom Luongo a year or so ago, and I've been a pretty close follower of his take on things ever since. And so I kept thinking, "this guy sure doesn't follow Luongo. At all."
Sad: Wikipedia "cancelled" the page of the painting? "... Before we get to the actual essay, I was amused at the use of a Jan Matejko painting as the backdrop to the title ..." The Wiki link here @2nd link, "Stephen Báthory at Pskov" shows "no results matching the query" "Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name. Please search for Stephen Báthory at Pskovtephen Báthory at Pskov in Wikipedia to check for alternative titles or spellings": which yields: "does not exist" yo. The pic link is at the artist's Wiki, and says: "This work (Stephen Báthory at Pskov) is in the public domain in the United States because it was published (or registered with the U.S. Copyright Office) before January 1, 1928. This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. ..." Also notes: " ... During the January Uprising of 1863, in which he did not directly take part on account of his poor health, Matejko supported it financially, donating most of his savings to the cause, and personally transported arms to an insurgents' camp ... He succeeded in propagating Polish history, and fostering the memory of an erstwhile historic state lost to the world, while his country remained carved up between three civilized European powers which afforded its Polish natives no prospect of political self-determination ..." (Thank you Mark, for post!)
I grew up near a polish community in Detroit. They hated FDR for “selling” them to Stalin yet voted democratic. I’m not around that pre-boomer generation anymore but I wonder why they trust us at all. I can’t believe they think they will get back whatever “glory” they think they had. I think neutral would serve them much better.
"The EU as an alternative power centre". It's good to laugh in the mornings! The EU is leaching power by the day and has no future. It will either collapse because of its internal contradictions or remain as a powerless relic like the Hapsburg Empire. As for Poland, it obviously suffers from delusions of grandeur and is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Poles are definitely caught between a rock and a hard place--their whole history is about their struggle against that. They're still at it. The typical Russian take on Poles is that they need to get over thinking their Westerners and embrace their Slavicness. Of course, Poles resent the implication that being Slavic and being Russian amounts to the same thing. I think most Russians are more willing now to come to terms with Poland as Slavic but not Russian, but Poles still have this unrequited love for the West. But if you consider that Western civilization is largely a product of the Roman Empire--which it is--then it's clear that Poland has always been well outside that world. Poland is too big to be insignificant, but too small to be a real power player. They need to find a role, and scorned suitor to the West isn't working.
All true. I remember Poland being described by a military historian as excellent tank country between the East and the West. That about sums up its predicament. However, at least on the surface, Poland seemed to have been on the way to carving out a post-historic identity for itself in recent years: a strong traditional culture married to a growing market economy; a member of the EU but holding fast to its hard-won identity. Now they seem to be about to throw it all to the winds. I guess nations are like people: they never know what they've got until it's gone.
Yup.
Poland's dilemma today reminds me of a high school popularity contest. In any high school class of any size there were always 5 or 10 kids who were widely acknowledged to be undoubtedly popular and/or powerful, whether by reason of personality, athleticism, looks, or qualities of mind. Then there were also a few wannabes who felt they deserved to be in the inner circle but really didn't 'pack the gear'. Poland reminds me of one of these. Like any high school student mistakenly seeking power but not likely to obtain it, Poland should simply accept its place, make real friends, do its homework and go about its life.
I would also observe...and this observation may well be totally out of bounds...but any political construct (in this case, Poland) which in the 1930s had the ability to totally alienate both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union has a special talent. Of course, I may well be wrong.
Lastly, as I warn all my European friends: don't trust the US with your life. There is a reckoning coming and if you want to be standing at the end, look out for No.1. The US certainly won't look out for you when push comes to shove.
The interwar period is complicated. Neither Germany nor Russia/USSR were reconciled to Poland's existence--they thought that problem had been solved permanently by the partitions of Poland. So Poland's unrealistic ambitions for leading a new Intermarium were, in that sense, irrelevant.
OTOH, the post WW2 changed a lot of things. Yes, Poland's sovereignty was limited by USSR domination, for defensive purposes of the USSR. The post Cold War period, I would argue, has shown that the new Russian Federation can be reconciled to a sovereign Poland--on condition of that Poland being reconciled to Russian concerns about Western hostility.
The point of no return has not been reached, despite Poland's active role in the war on Russia. But it will require Poland to do some real soul searching--not an easy thing.
What happens when the Euro gets crushed?
This was my reaction, also. I'm one of those (I imagine many) Mark introduced to Tom Luongo a year or so ago, and I've been a pretty close follower of his take on things ever since. And so I kept thinking, "this guy sure doesn't follow Luongo. At all."
Bieleń doesn't seem to have thought that far ahead.
That seems to be a common fault these days on our side of the fence. Only the Russians and Chinese seem to do that.
Sad: Wikipedia "cancelled" the page of the painting? "... Before we get to the actual essay, I was amused at the use of a Jan Matejko painting as the backdrop to the title ..." The Wiki link here @2nd link, "Stephen Báthory at Pskov" shows "no results matching the query" "Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name. Please search for Stephen Báthory at Pskovtephen Báthory at Pskov in Wikipedia to check for alternative titles or spellings": which yields: "does not exist" yo. The pic link is at the artist's Wiki, and says: "This work (Stephen Báthory at Pskov) is in the public domain in the United States because it was published (or registered with the U.S. Copyright Office) before January 1, 1928. This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. ..." Also notes: " ... During the January Uprising of 1863, in which he did not directly take part on account of his poor health, Matejko supported it financially, donating most of his savings to the cause, and personally transported arms to an insurgents' camp ... He succeeded in propagating Polish history, and fostering the memory of an erstwhile historic state lost to the world, while his country remained carved up between three civilized European powers which afforded its Polish natives no prospect of political self-determination ..." (Thank you Mark, for post!)
I grew up near a polish community in Detroit. They hated FDR for “selling” them to Stalin yet voted democratic. I’m not around that pre-boomer generation anymore but I wonder why they trust us at all. I can’t believe they think they will get back whatever “glory” they think they had. I think neutral would serve them much better.
No, you're not. Poland used Trump for support against EU culture warriors.