Thanks for the link. I'd say what America needs is not simply to have to continue to dodge the urge toward the abyss but a spiritual transformation, in which the craziness and lust for power is exorcised.
BTW, my wife just took the eye patch off and it seems like a total success again. For some people it takes a few days to get to 20/20, but for her it's been overnight.
I Think it Worth Considering the US EU precedent set in Ukraine
A precedent or standard on --- what and how is it acceptable to arm your proxy
US and EU let the world know what their standard was by arming and escalation in Ukraine so I imagine this is acceptable to the world.
I ran a query to Grok some may find interesting - re: Yemen capabilities as above addressed:
Grok started with this Conclusion: a 2 - 7 % chance of Houthi missile causing damage to Haifa
"The likelihood of Houthi missiles causing significant damage to Haifa port—such as widespread fires, major infrastructure destruction, or economic paralysis—is relatively low, likely in the single-digit percentage range (e.g., 2–7% per attack, depending on the scale). Israel’s air defenses are highly effective, and Houthi missiles lack the precision and volume to reliably overwhelm them."
However after pointing out a few issues to Grok that Grok did not consider
eg: more than 1 missile, the possibility that the Houthi's intentionally did not hit Gurion airport to avoid mass civilian causualties and the worldwide political fallout from hitting foreign civilians on a plane and the possibility that Yemen may be a key deterrence to US and Israel moving forward against Iran
and Basically that if Iran could avoid being attacked by a Houthi success, then Iran China Russia are incentivized to assist Houthi - Just as US and EU did with Ukraine
US and EU set the ' proxy standard ' of providing more and more weapons and reducing limitations on use as time and circumstances changed
that changed to 81% for a 5-missile attack, 96% for a 10-missile attack, and 99% for a 15-missile barrage.
Grok Conclusion:
Revised Conclusion
Updated Likelihood of Significant Damage to Haifa
The strategic dynamic you’ve outlined—Yemen as the “key” to U.S.-Israeli decision-making on Iran—further increases the likelihood of significant damage to Haifa by incentivizing Iran, Russia, and China to provide maximum support to the Houthis:
Maximum Support from Iran, Russia, and China:
Recognizing Yemen’s pivotal role in deterring a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran is likely to provide the Houthis with its most advanced weaponry, lift all restrictions, and offer extensive technical support. Russia and China, while not directly arming the Houthis, would benefit from a Houthi success and may encourage Iran’s efforts through diplomatic or indirect support.
The strategic dynamic you’ve outlined—Yemen as the “key” to U.S.-Israeli decision-making on Iran—dramatically increases the likelihood of significant damage to Haifa by incentivizing Iran, Russia, and China to provide maximum support to the Houthis. With Iran likely to supply advanced weaponry, lift restrictions, and enhance Houthi targeting accuracy, the probability of significant damage rises to 81% for a 5-missile attack, 96% for a 10-missile attack, and 99% for a 15-missile barrage. The damage would involve catastrophic economic disruption, with a high risk of civilian casualties, including foreign nationals, potentially escalating the conflict. Houthi success would deter a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, pushing them toward diplomacy and benefiting Iran, Russia, and China strategically. This scenario underscores Yemen’s pivotal role in the regional conflict and the urgent need for the U.S. and Israel to address the Houthi threat before it precipitates a broader strategic shift.
Most everything I read states the Houthi's missed the Gurion airport because their missiles are inaccurate or ineffective - however there is a likelyhood they missed the Gurion airport on purpose -that they did Not desire to hit a plane full of foreign tourists from the US UAE or other foreign state which would result in devastating worldwide outrage it would be on all the media and crippling for the Houthi reputation - as well it would bring the full force and ire of all of the US significantly greater than it is now
I opine fully the Houthi's were not attempting mass civilian casualty as they never appeared to have done so in the past .
Scott Ritter was mad as hell today on Judge Nap. Ritter articulates my own frustration with how Trump’s egotism and stupidity ruined any chance of him achieving what he himself wanted to achieve (and could have achieved) on the world stage. The tragedy of so many missteps and missed opportunities. And now Trump is throwing a tantrum like a child who hasn’t gotten his way, falling back to the neocon playbook/hymn sheet.
Ritter: "The best way to support Israel right now is to dump Netanyahu." That would be a good first step in avoiding catastrophe. But what about Netanyahu's cabinet and Ben-Gvir? How will they be dumped? I don't know much of anything about Israeli politics but it does seem the right is ascendent politically and popularly. Maybe a collapse of the Israeli economy and military failures can change that.
Interesting bit re: Romania. I'd long wondered why Simion was OK to proceed, while Georgescu was not, figuring, without hard backing, that it had something to do with relative levels of EU resistance. Much of Simion's draw, as initially reported, was a promise to "hand over" power to Georgescu if elected. Simion is still promising, as of yesterday, per the link below, to involve Georgescu, but it doesn't sound anything like a "handover." I'm sure that continued EU ****ery in the post-election processes will play a big role.
Farage cannot be trusted. His ego demands that he becomes PM in 2029. It is obvious to anyone watching closely that he has done a deal with whoever matters. I think one reason his party did so well is people here have had a gutful of the establishment so it was a genuine protest vote but whether that translates to future power remains to be seen. Less than 50% of the electorate turned out to vote.
Iran heard that same proposal in 1995. Richard Butler explains the 'annex agreement' to gain agreement to extend Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT): parties (incl. Iran & Egypt) were promised a "conference that would include Israel, to made the Middle East a non-nuclear region."
From the Federalist.
https://thefederalist.com/2025/05/05/the-last-thing-america-needs-right-now-is-war-with-iran/
Thanks for the link. I'd say what America needs is not simply to have to continue to dodge the urge toward the abyss but a spiritual transformation, in which the craziness and lust for power is exorcised.
BTW, my wife just took the eye patch off and it seems like a total success again. For some people it takes a few days to get to 20/20, but for her it's been overnight.
That's great news about your wife.
100% to your comment on spiritual transformation.
With God, all things are possible.
Yes--thanks!
Prayers and best wishes for Mrs. Wauck's surgery.
I Think it Worth Considering the US EU precedent set in Ukraine
A precedent or standard on --- what and how is it acceptable to arm your proxy
US and EU let the world know what their standard was by arming and escalation in Ukraine so I imagine this is acceptable to the world.
I ran a query to Grok some may find interesting - re: Yemen capabilities as above addressed:
Grok started with this Conclusion: a 2 - 7 % chance of Houthi missile causing damage to Haifa
"The likelihood of Houthi missiles causing significant damage to Haifa port—such as widespread fires, major infrastructure destruction, or economic paralysis—is relatively low, likely in the single-digit percentage range (e.g., 2–7% per attack, depending on the scale). Israel’s air defenses are highly effective, and Houthi missiles lack the precision and volume to reliably overwhelm them."
-----------------------------------------------------
However after pointing out a few issues to Grok that Grok did not consider
eg: more than 1 missile, the possibility that the Houthi's intentionally did not hit Gurion airport to avoid mass civilian causualties and the worldwide political fallout from hitting foreign civilians on a plane and the possibility that Yemen may be a key deterrence to US and Israel moving forward against Iran
and Basically that if Iran could avoid being attacked by a Houthi success, then Iran China Russia are incentivized to assist Houthi - Just as US and EU did with Ukraine
US and EU set the ' proxy standard ' of providing more and more weapons and reducing limitations on use as time and circumstances changed
that changed to 81% for a 5-missile attack, 96% for a 10-missile attack, and 99% for a 15-missile barrage.
Grok Conclusion:
Revised Conclusion
Updated Likelihood of Significant Damage to Haifa
The strategic dynamic you’ve outlined—Yemen as the “key” to U.S.-Israeli decision-making on Iran—further increases the likelihood of significant damage to Haifa by incentivizing Iran, Russia, and China to provide maximum support to the Houthis:
Maximum Support from Iran, Russia, and China:
Recognizing Yemen’s pivotal role in deterring a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran is likely to provide the Houthis with its most advanced weaponry, lift all restrictions, and offer extensive technical support. Russia and China, while not directly arming the Houthis, would benefit from a Houthi success and may encourage Iran’s efforts through diplomatic or indirect support.
The strategic dynamic you’ve outlined—Yemen as the “key” to U.S.-Israeli decision-making on Iran—dramatically increases the likelihood of significant damage to Haifa by incentivizing Iran, Russia, and China to provide maximum support to the Houthis. With Iran likely to supply advanced weaponry, lift restrictions, and enhance Houthi targeting accuracy, the probability of significant damage rises to 81% for a 5-missile attack, 96% for a 10-missile attack, and 99% for a 15-missile barrage. The damage would involve catastrophic economic disruption, with a high risk of civilian casualties, including foreign nationals, potentially escalating the conflict. Houthi success would deter a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, pushing them toward diplomacy and benefiting Iran, Russia, and China strategically. This scenario underscores Yemen’s pivotal role in the regional conflict and the urgent need for the U.S. and Israel to address the Houthi threat before it precipitates a broader strategic shift.
.
Most everything I read states the Houthi's missed the Gurion airport because their missiles are inaccurate or ineffective - however there is a likelyhood they missed the Gurion airport on purpose -that they did Not desire to hit a plane full of foreign tourists from the US UAE or other foreign state which would result in devastating worldwide outrage it would be on all the media and crippling for the Houthi reputation - as well it would bring the full force and ire of all of the US significantly greater than it is now
I opine fully the Houthi's were not attempting mass civilian casualty as they never appeared to have done so in the past .
Scott Ritter was mad as hell today on Judge Nap. Ritter articulates my own frustration with how Trump’s egotism and stupidity ruined any chance of him achieving what he himself wanted to achieve (and could have achieved) on the world stage. The tragedy of so many missteps and missed opportunities. And now Trump is throwing a tantrum like a child who hasn’t gotten his way, falling back to the neocon playbook/hymn sheet.
https://www.youtube.com/live/G3Q0Y96mO3k?si=Z4OFUjpFsAi0m7x3
Ritter: "The best way to support Israel right now is to dump Netanyahu." That would be a good first step in avoiding catastrophe. But what about Netanyahu's cabinet and Ben-Gvir? How will they be dumped? I don't know much of anything about Israeli politics but it does seem the right is ascendent politically and popularly. Maybe a collapse of the Israeli economy and military failures can change that.
OK, I apparently was wrong in my assumption about Netanyahu's popularity and his coalition's political prospects:
https://allisrael.com/new-poll-60-of-israelis-want-netanyahu-to-resign-coalition-government-loses-majority
Mac and LJ were also on fire, scathing.
Yes, a Happy Grandpa Day on Wednesday to you, and Happy Mother's Day to Mrs. Wauck and the mothers of your grandchildren.
Alex Krainer spots Nigel Farage as a London Banker's Man, very tied in to the financialist view of the world.
Thanks Joanne. All went well, with the usual minor BP drama.
Thanks for the heads up.
Interesting bit re: Romania. I'd long wondered why Simion was OK to proceed, while Georgescu was not, figuring, without hard backing, that it had something to do with relative levels of EU resistance. Much of Simion's draw, as initially reported, was a promise to "hand over" power to Georgescu if elected. Simion is still promising, as of yesterday, per the link below, to involve Georgescu, but it doesn't sound anything like a "handover." I'm sure that continued EU ****ery in the post-election processes will play a big role.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanian-presidential-vote-favourite-says-he-will-bring-back-banned-far-right-2025-05-04/
***citing Reuters as the LEAST likely to paint a rosy-eyed picture of the conservatives' prospects.
Good luck with the surgery, Mark. On the Israel front, I guess the Thaads couldn't stop the Thuuds.
Surprising analysis of Australia’s elections. Their version of Rino’s threw the election:
https://open.substack.com/pub/nationfirst/p/the-sabotage-of-peter-dutton?
An explanation of what Farage is doing. Sounds similar to the Romanian eu acceptable candidate:
“ he spent his political career ruthlessly purging first UKIP, and this year, Reform UK, of anyone who might upset this much desired image”
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/my-tcw-week-in-review-is-the-tory-beast-dead-or-just-rebirthed/
Farage cannot be trusted. His ego demands that he becomes PM in 2029. It is obvious to anyone watching closely that he has done a deal with whoever matters. I think one reason his party did so well is people here have had a gutful of the establishment so it was a genuine protest vote but whether that translates to future power remains to be seen. Less than 50% of the electorate turned out to vote.
Yep. Glad Starmer got a thrashing but I don't expect much from the Rebel from Central Casting, Farage.
Alastair Crooke spoke with Andrew Napolitano from Tehran, Iran where he is participating in Sobh conference of alternative media/internal journalists.
Dimitri Lascaris is there, as are Pepe Escobar, George Galloway, others:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh-B3M9y-Z0
Crooke broke the silence-barrier: "How about putting Israel's triad nukes under IAEA ---"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuFyAaTvZXc
Iran heard that same proposal in 1995. Richard Butler explains the 'annex agreement' to gain agreement to extend Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT): parties (incl. Iran & Egypt) were promised a "conference that would include Israel, to made the Middle East a non-nuclear region."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRgCdlka498