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johnycomelately's avatar

This is beginning to smell like a global Sunni crusade against Shia Islam with Western backing of course.

I guess Iraq and Iran will be nervous, Azerbaijan will be interesting.

Makes sense why the Saudi’s were so quiet over Gaza, the back room deals were made.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

I think that's an over generalization. Start at the bottom "why the Saudi’s were so quiet over Gaza". In fact they weren't quiet and have largely realigned. It has been during this period that the Saudis have reconciled with Iran and Syria. So, no Shia/Sunni problem there. The real ambivalence of the Saudis and the Gulf Arab states toward Gaza/Hamas is because Hamas is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a religio-cultural-political revolutionary movement within Sunni Islam, strong in Egypt, controls Turkey. MB seeks to overthrow traditional Sunni political structures (autocratic) and replace them with democratic forms. Nothing to do with Sunni/Shia.

Iran and Iraq will not be nervous about a Sunni crusade led by Arabs. They will be nervous about an imperial and expansionist Turkey--and that dynamic goes back a millennium or so. However, the significant strategic weight of Iran/Iraq limits the threat.

Azerbaijan will indeed be interesting because of cultural and historical differences with Turkey. While Turks and Azerbaijanis are all Turkish and linguistically very close, Azerbaijanis are heavily (2/3 or more) Shia whereas Turks are heavily Sunni (although of a different school than most Arabs). That could limit Azerbaijani - Turkish strategic cooperation. I'm not aware of movements of unification there.

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TedTheKitty's avatar

Anyone else remember when John Kerry said "we thought we could control Daesh" (ISIS)? How'd that work out for the Syrian people? This is going to be a sh!tshow of epic proportions for years to come. Israel, Turkey & the jihadist coalition all vying for land and power...what could go wrong? I've noticed that most of the pics & video I've seen of "Syrians" celebrating their "liberation" in Syria seem to show almost nothing but fighting age men whooping & waiving their guns. I'm thinking there will be quite a bit of bloodletting before the conquerors' frenzy subsides. But, western media will present this burgeoning Islamic caliphate as a moderate, inclusive and diverse democracy! Iran & Iraq are now a Shiite sandwich between this motley crew of jihadists and Afghanistan with its AQ training camps. Yep, this will all work out just fine, don't ya know!

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ML's avatar

“But, western media will present this burgeoning Islamic caliphate as a moderate, inclusive and diverse democracy!” Truer words…reminds me of those we all know who, in spite of his ranking as theee worst prez in history, continued to prefer Zhou to the evil tyrant Trump! Peace in the ME? Seems a wildly silly and far-fetched thought. And all this chaos and destruction unleashed by our cowing to the terrorist-led state of Israel. When is enough enough?

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Israel thinks keeping the region in chaos prevents any rival from developing. But this may turn out to be too much of a "good" thing. I suspect the chaos will work to Turkey's advantage if they're patient.

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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

Two words that are synonymous.......Israel and chaos. The third leg of this stool in money, lot's of it are dancing in their minds

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Sarcastic Cynical Texan's avatar

Peoples throughout Asia are going to wish for the return of Mongol rule soon.

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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

Now there was an empire that embraced true diversity and inclusion and meritocracy. They were smart enough to get rid of the elites from every nation they conquered.

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ML's avatar

Or Suleiman the Magnificent. Time to read or re-read “Four Princes” by JJ Norwich (plus Francis I, Heny VIII and Charles V). Age of conquest, yes, but also of diplomacy.

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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

Ask an American diplomat what diplomacy means?

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ML's avatar

Yeah, if you can find one on active duty!

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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

and the band plays on................good one, ML.

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Texas Khaan's avatar

YES .

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Ray-SoCa's avatar

Gideon Rachman - interesting. Jewish South African roots. Former writer - the economist. Definitely a member of the European Establishment:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gideon_Rachman

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Meredith Hobbs's avatar

"Lots could still go wrong" --FT

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Dec 11
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Cosmo T Kat's avatar

Do they think, at all?

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

I’m reviewing my options.

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