More Big Picture Stuff Re Iranian Retaliation

Information is emerging that tends to support Doug Macgregor’s claim that Iran inflicted “serious damage” to military targets in Israel, specifically two major air bases, Nevatim and Ramon. The significance of this is not just that these bases are major military assets for Israel—which relies heavily on its air force—but that, being such obviously important potential targets both bases would have been heavily defended.

Zerohedge has write up that collates some of the information:

Video Evidence Shows Several Iranian Cruise Missiles Scored Direct Hits

While the title states “cruise missiles”, it’s possible that these were ballistic missiles hits—as this tweet claims:

Outstanding video of Iran targeting Israeli Air defense systems!

Iranian missiles with decoy bomblets are first deployed, then several ballistic missiles hit their intended target.

What a fantastic video. pic.twitter.com/ff5ftepSj1

— Saeed (@Haman_Ten) April 14, 2024

It appears from video evidence that the Ramon base was hit by at least seven ballistic missiles.

As discussed in comments today, the WSJ is reporting that Iran provided an 18 hour heads up before launching its strike. This provided an opportunity for Western air forces to help prepare Israel. Check out this assessment in that light:

Rania Khalek @RaniaKhalek

THE KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE IRANIAN RETALIATION ON ISRAEL:

This is a deterrence win for Iran.

Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge.

There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.

A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies.

Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike.

The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war.

3:16 AM · Apr 14, 2024

I think she’s right, and Iran’s standing in the world gets a significant boost.

Now here’s an excerpt from a much longer tweet:

…

My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region.

The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc

This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel.

Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly.

Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible.

Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition.

Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have.

It would have been more direct for the writer to simply say that Israel will increasingly be seen for the liability that it is, rather than as an “ally”—which it has never been, except in the fevered imagination of the usual suspects. This is a major part of what I meant when I said earlier that nobody in the US national security apparatus will be thanking Netanyahu for instigating this. This has likely been a very costly “success.”