As they were announcing this earlier today, was surprised to see Fox have LTC Danny Davis on to discuss how our Syraq archipelago of bases made for sitting ducks. Maybe the polit-kommisars like the ISW’s Keane don’t do Sunday mornings?
Right. This simply confirms that the Patriot doesn't work very well. It is to anti-missile defense something like those gunfree zone stickers are to crime prevention. But this guys were illegally present in Syria and were sitting ducks.
The U.S. base was supposed to be low key. It was approved by Royal decree, bypassing the parliament. Most did not even know it was there. There is a heavy Palestinian presence in Jordan, at least 20% of the population, unfortunately No official census numbers exist.
The current king is married to a Palestinian, his Father kicked out the plo (Black September 1970) after basically a civil war, and his great grandfather was assassinated by a Palestinian.
Syria and Lebanon have shown a severe lack of modern AA missile systems (unless a deliberate ploy to spring a trap), so Hezbollah might not be as effective as many think.
Ukraine’s western systems might have skewed people’s thinking.
On the contrary, Syria has Russian S-400 systems which are highly advanced (S-300 has proven effective in Ukraine). They are under Russian command and have been used sparingly but effectively.. With Russian combat air patrols now taking place along the Golan Heights we can assume that they will be used. Hezbollah has also show the ability to shoot down Israeli drones, has previously hit an Israeli corvette with an anti-ship missile. Nobody actually knows what they have in terms of AA but it's presumed to be Iranian.
The allegation that the Russians shot the plane down is extremely suspect and does not make sense. Why do the Russians need to make the Ukrainians look bad? I hate to say it, the Ukrainians do a good job of that all by themselves.
Consider also: That plane had a transponder and it was inside Russian airspace. The plane was moving to a pre-coordinated border crossing. It had a registered flight plan. That plane was carrying "Special Mission Cargo” while flying in sector. Therefore, those Russian ADA systems were probably on ADA weapons HOLD mode . Meaning, Russian ADA was locked down and would have had to ask for confirmation in order to fire. The odds of getting a confirmation were near zero.
So, some people say that this incident was the fault of the Ukrainian military. My opinion also leans 75% that way from the facts we currently have. Many are postulating that the Ukrainians did this on purpose. That may be true. But there may be another reason the Ukrainians shot that plane down, and that reason must be considered. The Reason? Blatant, Gross, Incompetence.
Background, two factors:
1. Since the start of this war the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been plagued by their inability to coordinate and manage operations. This has been true on both the tactical as well as the strategic level.
2. Currently the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in desperate shape. They have been forced to recruit sub-standard physically and mentally disabled people. They also are having a horrific time with the maintenance of equipment.
Considering the above, the following scenario is a distinct possibility.
Here is what I think. The Ukrainians had the hardest part of this mission, and they failed. They coordinated for an enemy aircraft to cross their border during a time of hostilities. A very dangerous operation even under the best of circumstances. We know the Ukrainians are terrible at cross unit coordination and have personnel / maintenance problems.
So maybe a radio was not working at the ADA site, Or maybe the quality of the communications personnel was completely inadequate (mentally challenged). Maybe the crew was a bunch of loafers (non-caring and sloppy) who had no concept of “attention to detail”.
It also could be that the Ukrainian National Leadership, who planned and coordinated this operation were inept. In that they, “failed miserably” to ensure every operational unit in the mission zone, from strategic level all the way down to the ADA grunt pulling the trigger, was properly informed.
In a nut shell, it is very possible that someone did not pass the word along. Somewhere along the line, the chain of communication broke down. There was a critical failure to ensure that ALL of the Units in the mission sector got the word.
Because, in the end, what happened was an Ukrainian ADA unit did not get the word. Therefore, they did their patriotic duty, and thinking it an enemy aircraft, they blew it out of the sky.
Possible? Yes. Is it also possible that the Ukrainians shot it down on purpose? Yes. It will be a while before we find out what really happened here.
Hard truth. My thinking, this whole mission was an accident waiting to happen. Mission success was not possible due to relying on a synergistic combination of systems and people that were not capable or competent enough to conduct such an operation. You see, as far as the Ukrainian Government is concerned, the Ukrainians have to blame the Russians. Otherwise, they are murderous scum or incompetent idiots.
The Israeli leadership has to know by now of Hezbollah's missile capabilities and Israel's inability to defend against them. They have to know that Iran is backing Hezbollah. So what are they trying to do here? Is the Litani so important as to engage direct Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian/Qatari/Houthi involvement in a regional war and also the involvement of the Russians and the Chinese against them in support? Why? Maybe they are "last gasp" hoping to provoke direct U.S. involvement and/or an excuse to use nukes against Iran. If so I just have to say, if the Biden admin (and the U.S. Congress) was a used car salesman would you buy a car from this man? They didn't have to buy the car! And the car has no warranty.
The Israelis seem to be acting out of utter insanity.
If the Israelis can't defeat Hamas - and all the signs are that they can't - what makes them think they can defeat a massively more capable Hezbollah? There are many more voices being raised in the higher echelons in Israel that this is all about Netanyahu clinging to power.
Iran is using all of its proxies to launch missile attacks against Israel. The cruise missile from Iraq is just the latest.
India has received a lot of weapons and technology from Israel, after being disappointed with Russian weapon quality (hints were Israeli willingness to do bribes helped).
Disagree - From the article.
“entrapment in the US shenanigans to ‘return’ to Afghanistan”.
My guess is incompetence on the downing of the Russian IL-76. The Ukrainian government is highly distracted by the huge reverses in the battle field, and political intrigue in Kiev. They also seem to be prepping for a guerrilla war, and moving the capital.
Napoleon declared: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence," in what came to be known as "Hanlon's razor." That, however, was in a more structured and militarily straightforward time.
Some interesting info on Napoleon and the Ukraine:
Simplicitius has a rumor it was a French missile. Perhaps an attempt at revenge for the deaths of all those French troops in Ukraine? And due to Miscommunication did not know the planes status of immunity.
Thanks for posting these articles. I thought that the conclusion to the Haifa Port article was really interesting. I understand MKB to be saying (in his conclusion)that Pakistan and Iran worked together on the attacks so that Russia and/or China could come along side them and help to resolve their issues. (And help them to focus on north-south trade.) The intent was to keep Pakistan from being sucked in to US spy craft as happened via a vis Afghanistan.
3 U.S. servicemen killed at U.S. airbase in Jordan.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/01/three-u-s-servicemen-killed-in-iranian-backed-militia-drone-attack-in-jordan/
Estimated U.S. 2,000 troops at the airbase.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/us/politics/jordan-us-troops-drone-attack.html
More on airbase - it’s un acknowledged…
https://theintercept.com/2023/11/16/pentagon-jordan-military-air-base/
And the usual suspects are already talking about bombing Iran back into the Stone Age. Netanyahu should be happy.
As they were announcing this earlier today, was surprised to see Fox have LTC Danny Davis on to discuss how our Syraq archipelago of bases made for sitting ducks. Maybe the polit-kommisars like the ISW’s Keane don’t do Sunday mornings?
Right. This simply confirms that the Patriot doesn't work very well. It is to anti-missile defense something like those gunfree zone stickers are to crime prevention. But this guys were illegally present in Syria and were sitting ducks.
I wonder how this plays out with the supposed plans to withdraw from Syria and Iraq?
Jordan can now be added to the list.
Brilliant action by Iran.
The U.S. base was supposed to be low key. It was approved by Royal decree, bypassing the parliament. Most did not even know it was there. There is a heavy Palestinian presence in Jordan, at least 20% of the population, unfortunately No official census numbers exist.
The current king is married to a Palestinian, his Father kicked out the plo (Black September 1970) after basically a civil war, and his great grandfather was assassinated by a Palestinian.
I'm updating my OS today, may be incommunicado for a while.
Syria and Lebanon have shown a severe lack of modern AA missile systems (unless a deliberate ploy to spring a trap), so Hezbollah might not be as effective as many think.
Ukraine’s western systems might have skewed people’s thinking.
On the contrary, Syria has Russian S-400 systems which are highly advanced (S-300 has proven effective in Ukraine). They are under Russian command and have been used sparingly but effectively.. With Russian combat air patrols now taking place along the Golan Heights we can assume that they will be used. Hezbollah has also show the ability to shoot down Israeli drones, has previously hit an Israeli corvette with an anti-ship missile. Nobody actually knows what they have in terms of AA but it's presumed to be Iranian.
Budanov in charge of all prisoner exchanges for Ukraine. He knew what he was doing… now denying.
that is definitely a possibility. by his own admission, he is a war criminal. One day the ground truth will come out.
Here is my take.
The allegation that the Russians shot the plane down is extremely suspect and does not make sense. Why do the Russians need to make the Ukrainians look bad? I hate to say it, the Ukrainians do a good job of that all by themselves.
Consider also: That plane had a transponder and it was inside Russian airspace. The plane was moving to a pre-coordinated border crossing. It had a registered flight plan. That plane was carrying "Special Mission Cargo” while flying in sector. Therefore, those Russian ADA systems were probably on ADA weapons HOLD mode . Meaning, Russian ADA was locked down and would have had to ask for confirmation in order to fire. The odds of getting a confirmation were near zero.
So, some people say that this incident was the fault of the Ukrainian military. My opinion also leans 75% that way from the facts we currently have. Many are postulating that the Ukrainians did this on purpose. That may be true. But there may be another reason the Ukrainians shot that plane down, and that reason must be considered. The Reason? Blatant, Gross, Incompetence.
Background, two factors:
1. Since the start of this war the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been plagued by their inability to coordinate and manage operations. This has been true on both the tactical as well as the strategic level.
2. Currently the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in desperate shape. They have been forced to recruit sub-standard physically and mentally disabled people. They also are having a horrific time with the maintenance of equipment.
Considering the above, the following scenario is a distinct possibility.
Here is what I think. The Ukrainians had the hardest part of this mission, and they failed. They coordinated for an enemy aircraft to cross their border during a time of hostilities. A very dangerous operation even under the best of circumstances. We know the Ukrainians are terrible at cross unit coordination and have personnel / maintenance problems.
So maybe a radio was not working at the ADA site, Or maybe the quality of the communications personnel was completely inadequate (mentally challenged). Maybe the crew was a bunch of loafers (non-caring and sloppy) who had no concept of “attention to detail”.
It also could be that the Ukrainian National Leadership, who planned and coordinated this operation were inept. In that they, “failed miserably” to ensure every operational unit in the mission zone, from strategic level all the way down to the ADA grunt pulling the trigger, was properly informed.
In a nut shell, it is very possible that someone did not pass the word along. Somewhere along the line, the chain of communication broke down. There was a critical failure to ensure that ALL of the Units in the mission sector got the word.
Because, in the end, what happened was an Ukrainian ADA unit did not get the word. Therefore, they did their patriotic duty, and thinking it an enemy aircraft, they blew it out of the sky.
Possible? Yes. Is it also possible that the Ukrainians shot it down on purpose? Yes. It will be a while before we find out what really happened here.
Hard truth. My thinking, this whole mission was an accident waiting to happen. Mission success was not possible due to relying on a synergistic combination of systems and people that were not capable or competent enough to conduct such an operation. You see, as far as the Ukrainian Government is concerned, the Ukrainians have to blame the Russians. Otherwise, they are murderous scum or incompetent idiots.
Robert Fausti
Budanov set this up.
Agreed...to pile it on Zaluzhny, with the other Z-man’s full encouragement.
It all comes down to intent and until there is some hard evidence toward that everything else is speculation. Sad but true.
Thank you......Concur
Thanks very much for your thoughts!
The Israeli leadership has to know by now of Hezbollah's missile capabilities and Israel's inability to defend against them. They have to know that Iran is backing Hezbollah. So what are they trying to do here? Is the Litani so important as to engage direct Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian/Qatari/Houthi involvement in a regional war and also the involvement of the Russians and the Chinese against them in support? Why? Maybe they are "last gasp" hoping to provoke direct U.S. involvement and/or an excuse to use nukes against Iran. If so I just have to say, if the Biden admin (and the U.S. Congress) was a used car salesman would you buy a car from this man? They didn't have to buy the car! And the car has no warranty.
The Israelis seem to be acting out of utter insanity.
Or maybe the car salesman held a gun to their head and said "you WILL buy the car!"
If the Israelis can't defeat Hamas - and all the signs are that they can't - what makes them think they can defeat a massively more capable Hezbollah? There are many more voices being raised in the higher echelons in Israel that this is all about Netanyahu clinging to power.
Delusional egos.
Iran is using all of its proxies to launch missile attacks against Israel. The cruise missile from Iraq is just the latest.
India has received a lot of weapons and technology from Israel, after being disappointed with Russian weapon quality (hints were Israeli willingness to do bribes helped).
Disagree - From the article.
“entrapment in the US shenanigans to ‘return’ to Afghanistan”.
My guess is incompetence on the downing of the Russian IL-76. The Ukrainian government is highly distracted by the huge reverses in the battle field, and political intrigue in Kiev. They also seem to be prepping for a guerrilla war, and moving the capital.
Does seem India may then be willing to assist Israel in some capacity.
Napoleon declared: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence," in what came to be known as "Hanlon's razor." That, however, was in a more structured and militarily straightforward time.
Some interesting info on Napoleon and the Ukraine:
https://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CN%5CA%5CNapoleonBonaparte.htm
Versus the 3 ring circus these daze.
Interesting politics.
Simplicitius has a rumor it was a French missile. Perhaps an attempt at revenge for the deaths of all those French troops in Ukraine? And due to Miscommunication did not know the planes status of immunity.
Same here. We don't need to get into Tom Luongo-style deep conspiracies on this one. It was probably an accident of war.
Sir, yes I just saw your comment and said the same. concur
Thanks for posting these articles. I thought that the conclusion to the Haifa Port article was really interesting. I understand MKB to be saying (in his conclusion)that Pakistan and Iran worked together on the attacks so that Russia and/or China could come along side them and help to resolve their issues. (And help them to focus on north-south trade.) The intent was to keep Pakistan from being sucked in to US spy craft as happened via a vis Afghanistan.