MKB: IL-76 Shootdown; Port Of Haifa; Also, Prepping For War With Hezbollah
M. K. Bhadrakumar—former high level Indian diplomat turned geopolitical analyst—has some smart observations today. The first has to do with Ukraine’s downing of a Russian IL-76 transport that was in Russian air space and was transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war for exchange for Russians held by Ukraine. Russia had clearly informed Ukraine about this flight, so it appears to have been an intentional shoot down. Various analysts are all saying that it appears that the downing utilized NATO supplied missiles. This raises the question of NATO complicity, since NATO systems are often operated or directed by NATO personnel. The question is: Why the shootdown? MKB speculates, and the key is that Russia says some of the Ukrainian prisoners were members of the Azov crowd, probably taken prisoner in Mariupol:
M. K. Bhadrakumar @BhadraPunchline
12h
1/2 IL-86 incident becoming curiouser! Russian investigators: “Radar means of objective control of airspace as well as investigation established that the anti-aircraft missile weapon, which hit the military transport plane, was located in Liptsy village in Kharkov Region.
2/2 “There are characteristic tattoos on some body fragments. Similar signs & emblems were seen on the bodies of many members of Ukrainian armed groups, including the [neo-Nazi] Azov regiment, who were earlier questioned in connection with criminal cases.”
3/3 Some folks in Kiev didn’t want Neo-Nazi POWs to return home in prisoner exchange? Dead mean tell no tales! So, either Biden or Macron gave missiles to Kiev to hit a Russian military aircraft in Russian air space when neither is at war with Russia!
Two possibilities here—and there are probably more—arise from the claimed presence of Azov prisoners. Both possibilities respond to MKB’s observation: “Dead mean tell no tales!“ The first is directly suggested by MKB: some of these prisoners may have testified regarding war crimes by Ukraine. The second is that Azov cooperated closely with NATO. Indeed, thinking back to early days of the war, there were persistent rumors of quite a few high level (even general rank) officers of the US/FR/CN present in Mariupol and possibly captured. Was the shootdown done to prevent this info from being corroborated and leaked in a more detailed form than prevously rumored? Possible, for sure.
Next, MKB has an article about the port of Haifa in Israel. I’ve seen persistent reports of missiles targeting Haifa but, until now, no follow up on what, if anything, was targeted/hit. Until Israel began its genocide it had had very warm relations with India, and the US was attempting to set up an alternative transport route (India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor) to compete with China’s Belt and Road and Russia’s transport corridors. That alternative featured India and the hinge port of Haifa, on the way to Europe. With that in mind as the basis for an Indian perspective on the tough position India’s past policies have placed it in:
Need to find a way out of West Asia maze
Hardening stances are narrowing the diplomatic options. Regional forces fighting Israel now have the Haifa port, India’s biggest strategic asset in West Asia, in its crosshairs
Key excerpt:
The intra-regional alignments have come unstuck overnight and a great fluidity has appeared in regional security and stability, which will impact other regions, including India. In fact, the cascading developments have already left a mark on Indian interests. The Palestinian resistance groups known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is targeting the illegal military bases of the US in Iraq, has in recent weeks, expanded its operation to strike Israeli territories.
In its latest statement, the Islamic State in Iraq announced that it has struck a “vital target, deep inside the Israeli-occupied territories” with a long-range cruise missile “in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance and people of Gaza against the Zionist aggression” and furthermore, vowed to continue striking “the enemy’s strongholds” with more operations in the next phase.
The Iranian media has since reported that the target struck was an oil refinery in Haifa Bay in northern Israel. Apparently, this was the second such operation. The spokesman of the Palestinian resistance group Hamas, Abu Ubaida, disclosed in a television address on Sunday that the various resistance fronts (such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarullah and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq) “will expand their strikes on the Zionist enemy in the coming days.” Indeed, the scale and sophistication of the attacks on the US military bases in the region is steadily improving, too. A devastating ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Assad base in central Iraq last week left several US soldiers injured with brain injuries. The surge in attacks on the US bases aims to force the withdrawal of US troops—around 2500 soldiers in Iraq and 900 in Syria—which, the resistance believes, will disorient the Israeli military.
No doubt, striking a vital and sensitive target such as Haifa is a major development. Haifa is home to sensitive facilities, including a seaport, airport and three power plants. Haifa port, run by an Indian corporate group, has the potential to handle 90% of Israel’s foreign trade. Besides, the Polonium naval base located nearby not only hosts Israeli missiles with nuclear warheads but also submarines. Washington and Tel Aviv have big plans for Haifa as a key point in the proposed India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor.
So, the writing is on the wall: The Axis of Resistance has Haifa port in its crosshairs, India’s biggest strategic asset in the entire Middle East. And the resistance groups will render Haifa port dysfunctional so long as the Palestine problem remains unresolved. Hezbollah has already forced the eviction of Jewish settlers from northern Israel whom they regard as “colonisers”.
There’s more at the link, and MKB is always worth reading.
Lastly, news from the Israel - Lebanon border region plays directly into MKB’s reporting re Haifa, but also US military moves: provision of huge supplies of aircraft to Israel and plans to pull US forces out of bases in Syraq.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
Israel is preparing to invade southern Lebanon
Reports are coming from Israel that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is carrying out a 'massive transportation' of logistics towards the Israeli-Lebanese border.
I24 News announced: "If diplomatic efforts fail, Israel will invade southern Lebanon and force Hezbollah beyond the Litani River."
Hezbollah rejected a ceasefire more than a month ago and regularly targets military facilities in northern Israel.
The gradual withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza is also a clear sign that the second phase of the conflict, ie. war between Hezbollah and Israel will begin.
These days, the USA is delivering massive amounts of weapons to Israel, including F-16 and F-35 fighter jets.
“[F]orce Hezbollah beyond the Litani River"? That’s what Israel was going to do in 2006—and they were essentially stopped at the border. Hezbollah, formidable back then, has come a long way since 2006. The US hardware is mostly all strike systems—they are unlikely to help against the expected onslaught of large numbers of fairly sophisticated ballistic missiles that Hezbollah possesses. And, of course, the Haifa region will be in the crosshairs.
The US wants to avoid being dragged into this war. That probably explains providing weaponry to Israel—an indication that Israel will be going it alone, albeit with US material support. It also explains the projected US pullout from Syraq—a pullout that can’t be walked back.
I'm updating my OS today, may be incommunicado for a while.
Here is my take.
The allegation that the Russians shot the plane down is extremely suspect and does not make sense. Why do the Russians need to make the Ukrainians look bad? I hate to say it, the Ukrainians do a good job of that all by themselves.
Consider also: That plane had a transponder and it was inside Russian airspace. The plane was moving to a pre-coordinated border crossing. It had a registered flight plan. That plane was carrying "Special Mission Cargo” while flying in sector. Therefore, those Russian ADA systems were probably on ADA weapons HOLD mode . Meaning, Russian ADA was locked down and would have had to ask for confirmation in order to fire. The odds of getting a confirmation were near zero.
So, some people say that this incident was the fault of the Ukrainian military. My opinion also leans 75% that way from the facts we currently have. Many are postulating that the Ukrainians did this on purpose. That may be true. But there may be another reason the Ukrainians shot that plane down, and that reason must be considered. The Reason? Blatant, Gross, Incompetence.
Background, two factors:
1. Since the start of this war the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been plagued by their inability to coordinate and manage operations. This has been true on both the tactical as well as the strategic level.
2. Currently the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in desperate shape. They have been forced to recruit sub-standard physically and mentally disabled people. They also are having a horrific time with the maintenance of equipment.
Considering the above, the following scenario is a distinct possibility.
Here is what I think. The Ukrainians had the hardest part of this mission, and they failed. They coordinated for an enemy aircraft to cross their border during a time of hostilities. A very dangerous operation even under the best of circumstances. We know the Ukrainians are terrible at cross unit coordination and have personnel / maintenance problems.
So maybe a radio was not working at the ADA site, Or maybe the quality of the communications personnel was completely inadequate (mentally challenged). Maybe the crew was a bunch of loafers (non-caring and sloppy) who had no concept of “attention to detail”.
It also could be that the Ukrainian National Leadership, who planned and coordinated this operation were inept. In that they, “failed miserably” to ensure every operational unit in the mission zone, from strategic level all the way down to the ADA grunt pulling the trigger, was properly informed.
In a nut shell, it is very possible that someone did not pass the word along. Somewhere along the line, the chain of communication broke down. There was a critical failure to ensure that ALL of the Units in the mission sector got the word.
Because, in the end, what happened was an Ukrainian ADA unit did not get the word. Therefore, they did their patriotic duty, and thinking it an enemy aircraft, they blew it out of the sky.
Possible? Yes. Is it also possible that the Ukrainians shot it down on purpose? Yes. It will be a while before we find out what really happened here.
Hard truth. My thinking, this whole mission was an accident waiting to happen. Mission success was not possible due to relying on a synergistic combination of systems and people that were not capable or competent enough to conduct such an operation. You see, as far as the Ukrainian Government is concerned, the Ukrainians have to blame the Russians. Otherwise, they are murderous scum or incompetent idiots.
Robert Fausti