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Having now read through the Simplicius post and watched the video clips... I found it all really chilling. There seem to be EW 'solutions' to bamboozle the EW tech used to bamboozle the drones... and maybe even one or more recursions. Makes your head spin.

His argument that even small groups of infantrymen should have a dedicated eScout, not his term, sounded like good advice. The ways in which the IoF are being picked off in Gaza seems to suggest they aren't very competent in the traditional use of Scouts. Being quite badly found out right now.

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The Tony Blair story is an interesting one. I find it credible that he may well have been sounding people out re. providing refuge for displaced Palestinians. Two reasons (1) so that he can continue to pose as a great humanitarian, despite no one whatsoever believing it; and (2) because his spokesminions have hotly denied it, so the reverse is likely to be true.

Reason (1) is only meant to kick in later on, when the Scorched Earth phase is well and truly over OR if it is credible to respond that "I was merely discussing the possibility as any responsible Statesperson would".

tl;dr: Leak it, gauge the response, deny it was ever likely (or go right ahead).

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Never believe anything until it's officially denied. Basic rule of politics, courtesy of ...?

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You'd think Machiavelli but iirc Bismarck

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Actually, I think Jim Hacker, but possibly Sir Humphrey. The other episode is the one where he demands to see "everything", and soon has his inbox flooded with requisitions for paper clips from all government agencies.

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Ah, could well be. I am part-way through a protracted house move (still several weeks to go) and the book of the scripts are stashed... somewhere. Such a classic series.

I think I referenced the other episode in a comment about Truman's naivety, you highlighted those exact words.

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Robert Stark had a list of 2024 predictions, some of which I disagreed with. It’s interesting what he included and did not. I take him as very anti Trump.

His:

https://robertstark.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2024/comments

And my response;

1. Russia will continue to grind down Ukraine till Ukraine is a tiny landlocked country. The historical Russian areas, the Bolsheviks granted to Ukraine, will be part of Russia again. It’s only a stalemate in Western propaganda.

2. White whatever, except for the fbi controlled patriot front, is not happening.

3. The U.S. has moved from an ethnic political mix, to a working class vs elites. Maga vs Elites. And the Elites hate Maga. The elites are a product of a brainwashed k-12 plus higher education turning out good dei, globalist, believe the right science, climate change useful virtue signaling idiots.

4. South Africa has a higher chance of tribal riots. It’s a highly dysfunctional state. Think the route of Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the remaining whites have nowhere to go. Those that can have left. Reverse racism rules, resulting in promotion based on skin color.

5. See Shadowstats for the real inflation rate.

6. Dollar loses more of its reserve currency mojo. Non Western Countries run as fast as possible from using the U.S. dollar due to fear of financial sanctions and seizures of assets (as happened to Russia).

7. Can Trump win? Seeing what happened to Kari Lake I’m not sure. Of course I did not think he would win in 2016. I doubt the U.S. will clean up its voting system, third world countries have more secure systems that the U.S.

8. Western Global censorship efforts, such as the Eu and Ireland, will grow.

9. More attempted Western backed color revolutions attempts will happen, see Serbia and Belarus, but countries see through them.

10. The U.S. will lose a lot if global clout/ fear after the Houthani show the U.S. aircraft carriers are obsolete. The math does not work, where a $500,000 missile with limited production takes out a $30,000 drone.

11. Non woke European parties win more elections.

12. Covid vaccine legal shields are finally pierced.

13. Ca enters a painful recession.

14. Blacks get more and more anti Biden due to Biden’s open borders. They just stay home on Election Day, helping the GOP win the Senate, despite the best efforts of the eGOP.

15. The impact of Twitter on the U.S. electorate gestalt grows, while the msm continues to lose credibility. As do so many other institutions.

16. A major terrorist attack happens in the U.S.

17. Trans child child care motivates voters against Democrats.

18. Abortion is used to motivate Democratic Voters.

19. Continued MSM and Democratic efforts to portray Trump as the next Hitler, Racist, incompetent, dictator are ignored by his voters due to loss of credibility and crying wolf till often.

20. SCOTUS try’s to act non partisan and Trumps wins half of decisions due to Robert's and Kavanaugh. Julie Kelly has a good forecast, sigh. J6 jihad is not stopped duecto same reasoning. Lawfare against Trump continues, making into more of a martyr.

21. Democrats civil war over Dei continues, since neither side will moderate. Claudine Gay continues as Harvard President.

22. Israel - no idea. Both sides have lied and exaggerated. Israeli politics is strange. My guess is Israel is not doing as well as it claims to be, and casualties per Hamas are less. Herzbolla did well in 2006 against Israel, and is now stronger. Israel’s military capabilities have not grown as fast as its enemies.

23. Attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East will continue. U.S. forces will stay in Syria due to hubris.

24. Soros DA’s will continue destroying large urban areas through decriminalization.

25. FBI will do a Whitmer Kidnapping 2.0 right before the election.

26. Will Biden be impeached by the house? I doubt it. Too many Rino’s. But may be I’m wrong. A possible black swan event as more and more evidence of Biden corruption is released.

27. Offshoring from China gains speed, Mexico is the beneficiary.

28. Kari Lakes court case goes no where, unfortunate. Some judicial excuse is found to dodge the issue.

29. The Dominion Ga case is prolonged past the election and the weaknesses of system is hidden by the courts.

30. Julian Assange is brought to trial in the U.S.

31. Labor wins big in Uk, and so called Conservative Party is throughly trounced. Nigel Farage party does surprisingly well.

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Nice list, Ray. I agree with most of your predictions.

Here's Jim Kunstler's list:

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/do-you-dare-even-look-forecast-2024/

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My first prediction failure!

- Claudine Gay resigned

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You gotta know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em. :-)

Actually, I too thought Institutional Harvard would protect her, at least for a decent interval. After all, she was their choice and they absolutely knew who/what they were getting, weak scholarship and all, when they elevated her.

I also thought Elise Stefanik's attack on her was indefensible: as if any criticism of Israel is a call for Jewish genocide. It may be the only issue I agreed with Claudine Gay on.

Now my question would be: what's the point? Institutional Harvard was fine with Claudine Gay's plagiarism, just as it was fine with her long track record of racism, censorship and wokeism, all of which make a mockery of Harvard's place in the pantheon. Are they now going to hire a President who will restore Harvard to greatness?

Why would they?

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Thanks! Interesting read.

A.I. I’m not sure on the economic impact. Another viewpoint:

https://locusmag.com/2023/12/commentary-cory-doctorow-what-kind-of-bubble-is-ai/

Chinese property market collapse we will see. Chinese government appears to have amazing social control, but so did Nicolae Ceausescu.

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"All of this has obviously been foreseen and gamed out... Israel needs total war—now. ... [M]eaning: America at war with Iran. ... IMO it will fail, even if it succeeds. ... It will only hasten the end of the Zionist Project and the American Empire."

Yes, it is an interesting exercise to imagine the Neocon's game theory.

A few questions come to mind. I'm sure there are many more.

A regional war in the Middle East, no matter what its called, will be a war between Israel and the US (and its poodles) against Iran. Western media may be able to sell such a war to the low-info US voter as a war to protect Israel from the genocidal Muslim militants, but I'm not sure around 1.8 billion Muslims around the world will be buying it.

What happens if the Muslim world coalesces in support of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran?

How will nominal US allies in the Gulf respond to an Israeli-led war against Iran?

Won't a full-blown war against Iran totally shut down the Red Sea shipping lane? What's the impact of materially-increased cost of goods in Europe, on top of materially-increased energy costs? How long will the German voter accept war, shortages and recession as the price for US global hegemony?

How are the Neocons planning to sell war against Russia and war against Iran to the US voter in an election year? Is 'war' still an election winner in the US? (I am thinking of the image of 'patriotic' Maj. T. J. "King" Kong riding the bomb in Dr Strangelove ...)

If the US pivots to war with Iran, I would expect aid to Ukraine to be increasingly insufficient. If I were Vladimir Putin I would be sorely tempted to finish off the SMO while the US is pre-occupied. Are the Neocons seriously proposing that the US drop the 'proxy pose' and openly fight a two-front war in 2024?

And, doesn't the whole project risk full-blown WWIII? What's the Neocon game theory outcome for that?

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The Biden Administration will do everything in its power to avoid a direct war with Iran.

A hold over of the Obama peace deal with Iran at any cost efforts to cement Obama’s place in history, fix the Middle East, and show those Uppity Saudi’s and especially Trump the Biden / Obama foreign policy team are the smartest persons in the room.

Only problem is the U.S. can’t get past the Houthani Red Sea Israeli interdictions, and the Gulf States have zero interest in such a war.

And miracles of miracles, the Shia / Sunni rift has for the time being, been closed due to Israel and the U.S.

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"The Biden Administration will do everything in its power to avoid a direct war with Iran."

I bet there are some pretty heated arguments going on btw the Neocon and Obama factions in the White House, State Dept and DoD...

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You could be right, Cass, about the heated arguments. Obama displayed the typical black hostility toward Israel (and Jews) yet being careful not to offend his Zionist backers many of whom (G. Soros) are often behind the scene inciting the Pro-Hamas tirades. Swinging both ways seems to be the Zionist way. https://comicallyincorrect.com/category/af-branco-political-cartoons/page/2/

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Hypocrisy? That's for little people to worry about.

Hypocrisy? No problem as long as I win.

As they say, I think hypocrisy is a feature and not a bug of the deep state worldview.

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That is correct. Hypocrisy is also how psychopaths move about the world undetected until, at some point the hypocrisy becomes so blatant that even the most uninformed can grasp what is happening and that incites the psychopath into action. I believe we are observing just that in the many wars were are being led into for the benefit of the Globalist psychopaths.

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My swag observations on neocons - lots of it contradictory.

Patterned after animal farm’s 2 legs bad, 4 legs good mantra.

Islamic regimes good, except KSA.

Military or strong man rule bad of Muslim Countries and a color revolution is required.

Islamic rule of Iran is good good due to sin of U.S. and U.K. Overthrowing in 1953 the prime minister.

Christian led countries bad.

Western countries have the sin of colonialism, so need to be ethnically cleaned by importing the third world en mass.

U.S. has the sin of being majority White and Christian, as well as allowing slavery at one time, so we are evil and need to be reformed.

Socialist/ Communist countries good. Capitalism bad.

Nationalism bad because it caused The world wars.

Green power good, fossil fuels bad.

Climate change is real.

Because we are the elites, to save the world it’s required to use any means possible.

Censorship good. Freedom of speech is too dangerous for the masses in the West, they are all racists anyway.

Nuclear family bad.

Because we have the power, we can and will use financial sanctions against anyone we don’t like.

Borders in Western countries are bad.

LGBTQ good, and we are forcing it on other countries.

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"U.S. has the sin of being majority White and Christian, as well as allowing slavery at one time, so we are evil and need to be reformed."

Funny how those who drive this thinking were the biggest profiteers from the slave trade of blacks and white Christians.

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Interesting what is ignored:

- Historical White Slavery in the Muslim World (from the shores of Tripoli…).

-Slavery outside the U.S. in South America (Brazil)

- modern slavery in Africa is ignored.

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It's not so remarkable when you consider it is only the West where slaves and slavery is an ongoing subject of shame and political shaming used to denigrate what was once an overwhelming white majority and where slavery was least practiced and of shortest duration.

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The conflicts are so impossible of resolution that I guess we'll just need to commence WWIII to settle everything. When the dust settles (and it'll all be dust) we'll have a solution.

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All good questions. Which is why I used the chess metaphor. Macgregor likes to remind us all that the world is a lot more complicated than it was a couple of decades ago, and we're not really ready for living in this new world. 2024 could be pivotal.

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Maj. T. J. "King" Kong riding the bomb: https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2002629844/

And, I should add to my list of questions...what is the end game for the State of Israel after the 'war'? Won't it become a garrison state surrounded by enemies on perpetual red alert? Who will be safe in Israel? Will thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of Israelis seek safer domicile? Where in the world will they go? Isn't there only one place...

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Written in 2022 (before the outcome of the Ukraine debacle became much clearer) that Ukraine was to become the Greater Israel of Central Europe and in the same mold as Israel: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/zelenskyy-wants-ukraine-to-be-a-big-israel-heres-a-road-map/

I suspect the idea was to create a place where the secular and religious Zionist could navigate between to pull the strings of their global empire backed by U.S. tax payers.

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The U.S. is pushing hard to use the frozen Russian assets in Ukraine.

The Duran’s view is this will destroy the trust in the Western Financial Systems.

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I've seen other commentary, too, by non-alarmists who say it will simply collapse the dollar's role as a reserve currency. But these Neocons are people who think they can brazen their way through.

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From a contrarian POV: loss of reserve currency status would be the end of the US money printing machine which, counter-intuitively perhaps, could be viewed as good for the US. We would have to learn to live within our means. Maybe wishful thinking.

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In fact you could say that loss of reserve currency status is necessary if we're to ever regain the republic.

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It’s also losing control of the payment systems. Swift is U.S. controlled because it flows through N.Y. Bank’s got settlement.

If I remember the Duran podcast, the U.S. acted before letting the Europeans knowing to freeze the Russian central bank assets of $300 Billion.

The Duran also commented Putin would have paid the U.S. to do this. Basically this is helping move the non West out of the Western controlled financial systems.

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Cutting one's nose to spite one's face? Hatred can cause blindness.

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The Israeli’s are desperate, the neocons are desperate and desperation leads to rash decisions and equally rash actions. With a disastrous proxy war ongoing in Ukraine, a ME in total chaos and now action against the Houthi’s in the Red Sea, the level of desperation can only increase along with the likelihood that one or more of those “rash actions” may engulf the world in a war. The consequences of such a war are just too terrifying to contemplate. My sense of foreboding about 2024 rises with every passing day.

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“European countries to receive refugees from Gaza."

Classic propaganda word soup, would come across differently if they called it genocide, forced deportation and racism.

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"Zhou" is one of the 5 most common Chinese names and is pronounced in English like "Joe". It's an allusion to the huge amounts of money the Biden crime family has received from the Chinese government or agents of the Chinese government.

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