Military Roundup: Russia, Middle East Escalation

Simplicius the Thinker has published one of his long and technical commentaries on the state of the war in Ukraine. It’s a must read for fans of military technology, but far too long and technical for me to deal with—except to say that he places a great deal of emphasis on the ways in which both sides (US and Russia) are attempting to come to grips with the implications of the new drone warfare as well as develop new weapons platforms. It’s all very informative. For example, he explains why our advanced drones—the Global Hawk, and so forth—which are able to launch missiles and bombs are almost useless for that purpose in Ukraine.

End of 2023 Roundup - Update on the War's Technological Progress

I will add that Alexander Mercouris argued today that, despite the new importance of drone warfare, more or less traditional artillery—artillery is also much more advanced than it was even 10 years ago—remains king of the battlefield. If Simplicius were to respond to that argument, I suspect it would be along the lines that countering drones is nevertheless key to the Russian goal of keeping casualties down.

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With regard to the Middle East, it will be useful to quote portions of a longish tweet that forecasts the path ahead. Megatron_ron argues that the Middle East war will move in three phases, with the first goal being to degrade US/Israeli military resources:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

Where is the war in Gaza headed?

In the same direction as I already wrote.

The war will move in 3 phases. Hamas is the first phase where the goal is to hold out as long as possible and to cripple Israel's army as much as possible.

…

This is a confirmation that the entire operation to liberate Gaza from the occupation forces of Israel, which held Gaza as a concentration camp, with high bars, massive security and full export-import control, and keeping 2 million Palestinians in such a small space, is fully coordinated with the forces of alliance in the region and Iran as their leader.

Hamas fighters have entered this fight ready to lay down their lives and their goal is to eliminate as many Israeli soldiers as possible. For now, it is taking place according to the planned scenario. Hamas is causing enormous damage especially in the command parts of the pyramid in the IDF.

However, it is clear that Hamas is fighting against Israel and all of NATO, and it will be a miracle if they win a complete victory against all of them, but it will complete the task that was assigned to them. It will plunge Israel into a year-long war, cripple the Israeli army and plunge it into a severe economic crisis that even the United States will not be able to help them get out of so easily.

The already financed economy by the US after only 3 months of combats has fallen by 20%. The naval blockade of the Houthis, the evicted "settlers from the border areas of Israel and the war itself are taking their toll.

Meanwhile, while all this is happening and will continue to happen, shipments of advanced weapons and precision guided missiles to Hezbollah have increased exponentially. Iran also reinforcing its militias in Syria near the occupied Golan Heights. This was confirmed by the Kann [Israeli] newspaper.

The second phase will be a massive war with the far more powerful Hezbollah. Of course, this could change if Israel accepts a truce, which will be short-lived.

3:35 PM · Dec 29, 2023

Yesterday we noted that the Hezbollah front is gradually escalating—Israeli newspapers are reporting that casualties and equipment losses are not all being reported and that the fighting has become very intensive. Today, very large Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon were announced, following strikes in Syria the day before. This is nothing new. Air power just isn’t the deciding factor in these kinds of wars, as the US knows only too well. The problem is to find an alternative that is not casualty intensive. For lack of a viable alternative Israel is resorting to the same old approach with its airstrikes—not so much a sign of resolve as a sign that they can’t think of anything else to do.

And the US is threatening to do the same against the Houthis.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

Multiple Reports that the US and UK are preparing to declare total war on the Houthis and Yemen

An Joint-Statement is reportedly expected to be made in the coming hours by the US, Britain and probably Germany, announcing that they are in Final Preparations for a Large-Scale Military Operation against the Houthis in Yemen.

The attack will include the launch of Hundreds of Missiles and Airstrikes against Pre-Planned Targets in Western Yemen and the Red Sea.

Senior Houthi officials are in Tehran at the moment.

10:22 AM · Dec 31, 2023

Actually, this isn’t total war. It’s simply more of the usual—punitive airstrikes that are supposed to intimidate but don’t. Each step that we’re seeing has probably been planned out in advance by the Axis of Resistance, and the US and Israel—isolated from most of the world—find themselves in the unenviable position of responding to whatever the latest step has been, while not knowing what the next step will be. But knowing that there will be a next step.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

After the clash with the US army, a senior Houthi official left for Tehran

After the US destroyed three Houthi speedboats and killed the crew, Yemen's top official Mohammad Abdul-Salam met with Iran's security chief, Ali Akbar Ahmadian in Tehran.

Yemeni official says US actions cannot go unpunished.

The Houthis lost 10 of their fighters in this clash.

8:54 AM · Dec 31, 2023

All of this has obviously been foreseen and gamed out. Meanwhile the UK Neocons are making the Euros an offer they will definitely want to refuse:

Israeli Channel 12:

"Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair will head a team working to persuade #European countries to receive refugees from #Gaza."

What could possibly go wrong? Where to start? Here’s Alastair Crooke’s short version of where things stand:

Israel’s Gaza military operation is visibly failing, though the aerial bombardment is set to continue through the coming weeks. It never had a military logic, and this is becoming evident to many Israelis. Gaza is already a monument to callous inhumanity and suffering. It will get worse – yet the Gazans will endure and remain defiant.

And the Israeli military operation against Hizbullah also stands ‘green-lighted’, albeit only when Hochstein’s diplomatic effort to push a disarmed Hizbullah back behind the Litani River (predictably) fails. What is the White House thinking? Do they recall the 2006 war? Do they understand how formidable an adversary Hizbullah has become? Do they not see how Israel is provoking Hizbullah and Iran?

The last sentence there is, IMO, the key. Missile strikes in Yemen isn’t “total war”. But total war is what Israel now needs to avert total defeat. Yes, the Zhou administration is stepping ever deeper into a quagmire, but the danger for Israel is that the US will somehow back out. That’s why Israel needs total war—now. Sooner rather than later. And that’s the reasoning behind the attacks on Hezbollah, on Syria, on Iran, the reason for the escalating threats. Israel needs total war, meaning: America at war with Iran. Only total war will provide 1) the military force that could possibly destroy Israel’s enemies, and 2) allow for the ethnic cleansing of all Palestine. That, IMO, is the strategy behind Netanyahu’s actions. IMO it will fail, even if it succeeds. Total war will not be the solution. It will only hasten the end of the Zionist Project and the American Empire.