Larry Johnson has been back and forth on the Gaza hospital bombing. First he was sure it was Israel, then he had doubts. This morning he’s back in the Israel-did-it camp. What this illustrates is the difficulty armchair warriors have in coming to solid conclusions on such matters, even with video and all sorts of experts weighing in. Video depends on perspective, can be convincingly faked, experts are often not as expert as they claim or may not be expert enough to realize when a given problem actually lies beyond their expertise. LJ has been honest in seeking the advice of real experts, but that’s a judgment call he has to make without the benefit of expertise on his own part. A few of his experts haven’t been helpful—whether mistakenly or not is also a judgment call.
Why are you not acknowledging the logical, obvious or very possible: that Hamas in the Gaza Strip has bigger, newer, more sophisticated or more powerful missiles than you, only doing research on the Internet, are aware of?
The arguments presented by LJ and seconded by me rely not on possibilities but on known facts. Feel free to link to solid evidence that Hamas possesses missiles--rather than unguided rockets--but also possesses thermobaric explosives which they've never used for any other purpose.
Amir Tsarfati, Israeli Messianic Jew, teaches biblical prophecy but also runs a Middle East news feed via his Telegram account to provide information and news primarily from the Middle East concerning things that the MSM doesn’t address or simply gets wrong (would that be mis-, dis- and/or mal-information?). Most of the news he covers is for the purpose of linking current events in the Middle East and the world with biblical prophecy.
On October 11 or 12, Amir posted the following, saying that Hamas used Iranian-made thermobaric weapons:
“In the surprise attack by Hamas, lethal means were used that were unknown to the security system made in Iran
Among other things, air-fuel bombs - thermobaric - are used, which after detonation cause a fire at an extremely high temperature
The same bombs were dropped by drones from the air in the opening blow of the war and caused fires in military vehicles and tanks.”
Amir doesn’t generally cite the source of his posts but he typically issues corrections when he has reported something that is later disproven. I realize he is likely a useful and ready disseminator of disinformation (in the classical sense), knowingly or unknowingly, for any number of players.
For those with eschatological interest, Amir believes the current Middle East conflagration could be setting the stage for the Ezekiel 38 war frequently referred to as the war of Gog and Magog although several other things need to fall into place, which if I’m not mistaken, would include the destruction of Damascus.
I would provide links but can’t seem to figure out how to do that with Telegram and also can’t seem to go back far enough in Amir’s feed to locate the specific post. I reproduced the post in this comment from a communication I had forwarded to another contemporaneous with its initial post.
That's an appeal to expertise fallacy right off the bat. You may have known facts about missiles they are proven to have, .but you cannot use that to definitely state what they don't have. That is a proving the negative fallacy. The AP, NPR, IDF and intelligence services around the world, as well as numerous other reputable sources domestically and internationally, just as reputable (or more) as LJ, have analyzed actual video of what happened, shown it to the world, and concluded that a Hamas missile fell on the hospital. That means it is a almost a certain likelihood and cannot be categorically ruled out based on knowledge of what weapons they
have been shown to have had, also on video. Video of the event, not video of Hamas using other weapons in a different setting, is the hard facts. Video of Hamas using or possessing other types of missiles in other settings, or facts about what type of missiles they have, is irrelevant to the actual event. You cannot prove a negative, i.e. Hamas was not responsible, based on facts about what they have and thereby assume what they don't have.
Today I learned Obama was actually at his Martha Vineyard estate when his chef drowned. He was the 2nd person present and interviewed by the police. Where's the MSM asking the hard questions?
If Hamas had used thermobarics in the past we would know 100%. Very different effects than conventional warheads. If things keep heating up someone might give them some in the future. Vladimir might start passing out dangerous weapons to anyone fighting us. Why wouldn’t he? See: Ukraine. In his most recent Judging Freedom appearance MacGregor seems very concerned that our genius political leaders are going to escalate against Hezbollah. The Eastern Mediterranean looks like a bathtub surrounded by missiles. Let us hope that cooler heads prevail.
It’s always hard to try and make assumptions or ascertains what happened without actual “ground truth”. I learned this in small scale police actions I was involved in where the press never had the story right. When pundits start pundit(ing) without first hand knowledge it can get messy easily. Some people just have to add their 2 cents, ah, like me. I’m at least basing it on personal experience.
If they are flying at commercial airline altitudes then they need to be shot down for safety reasons. Why fly that high? This is not how not to be seen. Do they want them spotted and shot down to use up defensive weapons such as missiles? Or are they the WW2 torpedo bombers at Midway that distracted the fighters, allowing the dive bombers through? Perhaps the enemy will run a few Turkey shoots such as this and then later a combined attack with sea skimming cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, and torpedoes from various sources.
Interesting event. A probe of the Ford’s defenses? This event used up at least 19 missiles, possibly more. How are our supplies of these? Perhaps we will continued to see events such as this that will slowly drain our missile stocks and deplete available ammunition on deployed ships. Hopefully our leadership is paying attention. They are Still not talking about going on a war footing at least when it comes to building up weapons supplies and production capacity.
What Russia demonstrates in Ukraine through use of cheap Iranian drones and slight more expensive Russian hypersonic missiles, US Patriot batteries can be taken out. Basically a Billion of equipment for probably under $40 million in Russian costs.
Thanks Mark. Looking forward to your next post. It will be terrible if the Ford or another carrier is hit or even sunk. Also terrible is that most Americans will be surprised and that shock will be used to ‘cry havoc (insert Biden gibberish here) and loose the dogs of war.’ Does Joe intend to sleepwalk/sundown us into WW3 so that he can be the next FDR? What will the New New Deal be like? Less WPA and more cannon fodder most likely. Or that is what Obama’s whisperers are putting into Joe’s mind.
And the cannon fodder will probably include my, just about to graduate from college, son. 21 yoa and prime draft age. Never though I would think such a thing but I hope he finds his way out if they decide on this foolhardy adventure.
My maternal grandfather was the only male relative I have of that generation who was not sent to war. He had an important job in the food industry. Everyone else was a paratrooper, infantry, or combat engineer. So perhaps get a job that is necessary to support the war effort.
My greatest fear at this point is that Biden’s idiot handlers, and those actually “calling the shots”, are so invested in this ongoing suicidal charade that they will allow this incompetent buffoon to wander aimlessly around on the world stage until the “oh shit, now what are we gonna do” moment comes because of something no one was expecting and the fireworks start in earnest and cannot be stopped.
I hope Blutto Barr is having nightmares over this mess that he helped create. I would like to add a few more colorful adjectives, but I don’t want to get kicked off MIH.
Hello SMH! Please do not get the boot! What is sorely needed in our country is calm reasoned debate. MacGregor talks about all of the various lunatics acting emotionally and that could very well get millions killed! If the world economy is disrupted it could be billions because billions are dependent upon the manufacture and transport of fertilizer, pesticides, and agricultural inputs for their daily bread. The stakes are so high that Putin is seeming sane to many in the world. Plus he has food and fertilizer. What do we have to offer the world? Oh…let us see…how about the genius of growing less food through the abandonment of modern farming in Sri Lanka? Plenty of ‘Grown Organic!’ stickers but no food to stick them on. The world likely looks as this, as it does the destruction of Ukrainian manhood, as examples of the loss of our ability to engage in elementary moral reasoning. We no longer grasp that people need to eat. The left wants to ‘decolonize’ Israel and colonize the rest of the world with green famine. Our ruling class is Marie Antoinette times ten.
So that's your conclusion after following the link re thermobaric weapons and viewing the video that shows how contained a thermobaric explosion can be?
Why are you not acknowledging the logical, obvious or very possible: that Hamas in the Gaza Strip has bigger, newer, more sophisticated or more powerful missiles than you, only doing research on the Internet, are aware of?
The arguments presented by LJ and seconded by me rely not on possibilities but on known facts. Feel free to link to solid evidence that Hamas possesses missiles--rather than unguided rockets--but also possesses thermobaric explosives which they've never used for any other purpose.
Hey Mark,
Amir Tsarfati, Israeli Messianic Jew, teaches biblical prophecy but also runs a Middle East news feed via his Telegram account to provide information and news primarily from the Middle East concerning things that the MSM doesn’t address or simply gets wrong (would that be mis-, dis- and/or mal-information?). Most of the news he covers is for the purpose of linking current events in the Middle East and the world with biblical prophecy.
On October 11 or 12, Amir posted the following, saying that Hamas used Iranian-made thermobaric weapons:
“In the surprise attack by Hamas, lethal means were used that were unknown to the security system made in Iran
Among other things, air-fuel bombs - thermobaric - are used, which after detonation cause a fire at an extremely high temperature
The same bombs were dropped by drones from the air in the opening blow of the war and caused fires in military vehicles and tanks.”
Amir doesn’t generally cite the source of his posts but he typically issues corrections when he has reported something that is later disproven. I realize he is likely a useful and ready disseminator of disinformation (in the classical sense), knowingly or unknowingly, for any number of players.
For those with eschatological interest, Amir believes the current Middle East conflagration could be setting the stage for the Ezekiel 38 war frequently referred to as the war of Gog and Magog although several other things need to fall into place, which if I’m not mistaken, would include the destruction of Damascus.
I would provide links but can’t seem to figure out how to do that with Telegram and also can’t seem to go back far enough in Amir’s feed to locate the specific post. I reproduced the post in this comment from a communication I had forwarded to another contemporaneous with its initial post.
That's an appeal to expertise fallacy right off the bat. You may have known facts about missiles they are proven to have, .but you cannot use that to definitely state what they don't have. That is a proving the negative fallacy. The AP, NPR, IDF and intelligence services around the world, as well as numerous other reputable sources domestically and internationally, just as reputable (or more) as LJ, have analyzed actual video of what happened, shown it to the world, and concluded that a Hamas missile fell on the hospital. That means it is a almost a certain likelihood and cannot be categorically ruled out based on knowledge of what weapons they
have been shown to have had, also on video. Video of the event, not video of Hamas using other weapons in a different setting, is the hard facts. Video of Hamas using or possessing other types of missiles in other settings, or facts about what type of missiles they have, is irrelevant to the actual event. You cannot prove a negative, i.e. Hamas was not responsible, based on facts about what they have and thereby assume what they don't have.
Take a deep breath, wipe the spittle from your chin ...
Ad hominem fallacy, you just can't stop. This is an opinion blog on both ends, so it is what it is.
Today I learned Obama was actually at his Martha Vineyard estate when his chef drowned. He was the 2nd person present and interviewed by the police. Where's the MSM asking the hard questions?
Actually, I decide what opinions get expressed. I allowed your opinion for a reason.
If Hamas had used thermobarics in the past we would know 100%. Very different effects than conventional warheads. If things keep heating up someone might give them some in the future. Vladimir might start passing out dangerous weapons to anyone fighting us. Why wouldn’t he? See: Ukraine. In his most recent Judging Freedom appearance MacGregor seems very concerned that our genius political leaders are going to escalate against Hezbollah. The Eastern Mediterranean looks like a bathtub surrounded by missiles. Let us hope that cooler heads prevail.
It’s always hard to try and make assumptions or ascertains what happened without actual “ground truth”. I learned this in small scale police actions I was involved in where the press never had the story right. When pundits start pundit(ing) without first hand knowledge it can get messy easily. Some people just have to add their 2 cents, ah, like me. I’m at least basing it on personal experience.
100% amen to that.
Hugely important if correct--obviously this happened, and the original official narrative was obviously nonsensical:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/10/21/the-first-u-s-military-engagement-in-an-expanded-israeli-war-has-begun/
How sophisticated was this attack? That we don't know.
Each U.S. missile interceptor costs $2.5 million each.
19 cruise missiles and drones Interception cost at least $47.5 million dollars.
Cruise and drone cost is a lot less.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38102/here-is-what-each-of-the-navys-ship-launched-missiles-actually-costs
If they are flying at commercial airline altitudes then they need to be shot down for safety reasons. Why fly that high? This is not how not to be seen. Do they want them spotted and shot down to use up defensive weapons such as missiles? Or are they the WW2 torpedo bombers at Midway that distracted the fighters, allowing the dive bombers through? Perhaps the enemy will run a few Turkey shoots such as this and then later a combined attack with sea skimming cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, and torpedoes from various sources.
Interesting event. A probe of the Ford’s defenses? This event used up at least 19 missiles, possibly more. How are our supplies of these? Perhaps we will continued to see events such as this that will slowly drain our missile stocks and deplete available ammunition on deployed ships. Hopefully our leadership is paying attention. They are Still not talking about going on a war footing at least when it comes to building up weapons supplies and production capacity.
What Russia demonstrates in Ukraine through use of cheap Iranian drones and slight more expensive Russian hypersonic missiles, US Patriot batteries can be taken out. Basically a Billion of equipment for probably under $40 million in Russian costs.
That is a Smith&Wesson. And you have had your six.
Excellent point, Hal. Having finished my Polish post I was just about to lead off another with that thought.
Thanks Mark. Looking forward to your next post. It will be terrible if the Ford or another carrier is hit or even sunk. Also terrible is that most Americans will be surprised and that shock will be used to ‘cry havoc (insert Biden gibberish here) and loose the dogs of war.’ Does Joe intend to sleepwalk/sundown us into WW3 so that he can be the next FDR? What will the New New Deal be like? Less WPA and more cannon fodder most likely. Or that is what Obama’s whisperers are putting into Joe’s mind.
And the cannon fodder will probably include my, just about to graduate from college, son. 21 yoa and prime draft age. Never though I would think such a thing but I hope he finds his way out if they decide on this foolhardy adventure.
My maternal grandfather was the only male relative I have of that generation who was not sent to war. He had an important job in the food industry. Everyone else was a paratrooper, infantry, or combat engineer. So perhaps get a job that is necessary to support the war effort.
Now you’ve hit it Hal!!
My greatest fear at this point is that Biden’s idiot handlers, and those actually “calling the shots”, are so invested in this ongoing suicidal charade that they will allow this incompetent buffoon to wander aimlessly around on the world stage until the “oh shit, now what are we gonna do” moment comes because of something no one was expecting and the fireworks start in earnest and cannot be stopped.
I hope Blutto Barr is having nightmares over this mess that he helped create. I would like to add a few more colorful adjectives, but I don’t want to get kicked off MIH.
Hello SMH! Please do not get the boot! What is sorely needed in our country is calm reasoned debate. MacGregor talks about all of the various lunatics acting emotionally and that could very well get millions killed! If the world economy is disrupted it could be billions because billions are dependent upon the manufacture and transport of fertilizer, pesticides, and agricultural inputs for their daily bread. The stakes are so high that Putin is seeming sane to many in the world. Plus he has food and fertilizer. What do we have to offer the world? Oh…let us see…how about the genius of growing less food through the abandonment of modern farming in Sri Lanka? Plenty of ‘Grown Organic!’ stickers but no food to stick them on. The world likely looks as this, as it does the destruction of Ukrainian manhood, as examples of the loss of our ability to engage in elementary moral reasoning. We no longer grasp that people need to eat. The left wants to ‘decolonize’ Israel and colonize the rest of the world with green famine. Our ruling class is Marie Antoinette times ten.
So that's your conclusion after following the link re thermobaric weapons and viewing the video that shows how contained a thermobaric explosion can be?
Color m,e unimpressed with your attempt to suppress disagreement. The type of Hellfire launched thermobarics were developed long after your service.
See Hunter Biden laptop.
Stephen, tone it down. You can make your point without the over the top abuse.