Let's Start The Day With Controversy

Larry Johnson has been back and forth on the Gaza hospital bombing. First he was sure it was Israel, then he had doubts. This morning he’s back in the Israel-did-it camp. What this illustrates is the difficulty armchair warriors have in coming to solid conclusions on such matters, even with video and all sorts of experts weighing in. Video depends on perspective, can be convincingly faked, experts are often not as expert as they claim or may not be expert enough to realize when a given problem actually lies beyond their expertise. LJ has been honest in seeking the advice of real experts, but that’s a judgment call he has to make without the benefit of expertise on his own part. A few of his experts haven’t been helpful—whether mistakenly or not is also a judgment call.

Anyway. This morning LJ uses another expert’s opinion to reach his current final opinion. In some ways this expert’s opinion simply mirrors or expands upon the common sense views that I espoused. Basically, the “incoming” sound and the extent of damage were simply not consistent with the piddly rockets that Hamas is known to possess. The expert has explanations for this, and they point to how little most of us know about modern warfare, even after the education we’ve received from the conflict in Ukraine.

AFTER WEIGHING THE EVIDENCE, ISRAEL APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BOMBING OF THE AL-AHLI HOSPITAL

Before we dive into the details, I’ll preface it all by reminding readers that Israel is openly following a policy of inflicting maximum destruction on an urban area of over 2 million people. As I stated yesterday, I was quite surprised to see that headlined by even hard Neocon outlets like The Telegraph. Israel has even demanded the evacuation of hospitals on extremely short notice. It is simply not possible to inflict maximum destruction on such a densely populated urban area without inflicting massive civilian casualties—as is occurring. This is policy, with the very obvious aim of pushing the population out.

Now for the details—but follow the link for the all that LJ has to say as well as additional video. I’ve added a few links for reference:

I believe the hospital parking area was struck by an Israeli munition, most likely a Hellfire launched from a drone. A friend with expertise in this area passed this on:

An MQ-9 carrying thermobaric versions of the hellfire missile (something we’ve supplied to Israel) is very possible. That particular version of the missile (AGM-114N) provides a particularly nasty thermobaric/incendiary blast that was originally designed to be skipped/or detonated at the mouth of a cave opening and burn out all the oxygen (suffocating the inhabitants further down the tunnel). My leading theory? Israel might have thought there was a Hamas tunnel system in the area and was taking a shot. That impact crater fits.

The Russians have used thermobaric surface to surface missiles extensively in Ukraine. Whether they have launched them from drones or other airborn platforms I don’t know, but seems likely. Do read the link on thermobaric weapons (I’ve read and reread it in the past re Russia/Ukraine). Although originally designed for use against dug in fortifications or enclosed spaces, they have proven highly effective as anti-personnel weapons and area explosives, due to the shock and pressure waves that are generated.

Why do I dismiss the charge that Hamas was responsible? Please look and listen to the footage of the blast:

I have searched the web and cannot find a single example of Hamas launching a weapon with this sound and blast signature against Israel during the past ten years. ... The rockets Hamas routinely fires at Israel are not precision guided projectiles and they are not accelerating beyond the speed of gravity as they fall towards the earth with a great “Whooshing” sound. More importantly, the Hamas “warheads” are relatively small and have not caused mass casualties in Israel comparable to what was seen at Al-Ahli Hospital.

Some have suggested, wrongly, that it was an MK-84 bomb (a 2000 pound monster). Look at this and judge for yourself.

Again, comparison to Russian practice in Ukraine is helpful. The Russians have only recently begun using bombs that large, or at least only recently on a more widespread basis.

As you can see for yourself, any of the MK variants would have left an enormous crater in the parking lot. There is no big crater.

Israel did itself no favors yesterday (Thursday) in trying to distance itself from the Hospital bombing when it attacked part of the Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius, an important historical and religious landmark. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli military confirmed it bombed the church. Hamas supporters merely point to the attack on Saint Porphyrius as more proof that this is Israel’s standard operating procedure. The church bomb killed 17, which included some children, and wounded dozens.

Israel justified the attack:

Explaining the damage done to the church, the IDF stressed that “Hamas intentionally embeds its assets in civilian areas and uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as human shields”.

Obviously, all areas of Gaza are civilian areas, and that by design. In 1948 large numbers of Palestinians were forced to flee from the Negev and adjoining areas into the Gaza Strip. To then bomb such areas with the intent of inflicting “maximum destruction”, well … at a minimum it becomes difficult to maintain that one’s bombing campaign is a humanitarian operation with any expectation of credibility. Regardless, in this case the evidence appears as clear as we can expect it to be.