The fog of war still enshrouds events in Israel/Gaza. It’s clear that the death toll will go higher on both sides, possibly much higher. I said that this is a “kinda” sitrep because I can’t pretend to know anything that isn’t widely available already. However, here’s one tweet (below) that appears to me to provide a reasonable state of the war for now. It’s probably out of date by now, but it does outline some important basic aspects.
The bigger event is a war with Iran and the USA. The narrative is being constructed to lead to it.
Can the West sustain a second hot front which will facilitate a Russian offensive to retake Odessa ? Then a third one looming on the horizon. Is the Biden administration not forced to act after the $6 B. deal ? is it not a setup that was sought after by both sides and by all parties directly involved in the Hamas "surprise" attack ?
I favor the simplest explanation--that Israeli intel thought they had great sources inside Hamas, but they were controlled. I think the US is finding itself like a juggler trying to keep two many (war) balls in the air at once.
My knowledge of this area of the world is about a half inch deep so pardon me for saying but, I believe they need to fight it out and see who wins. This "two-state solution" thing is something I've been hearing since I was aware of the ME. It ain't gonna work people. Trying to live with Hamas, et al isn't gonna work. Yes, there are untold innocents in Gaza and the West Bank and I am certainly happy to not be one of them. That said, maybe this is the time to figure some s*** out.
I understand that Israel has probably done some things they're not proud of. What human population isn't BUT, as far as I can tell Israelis are not gunning down women and children on the highway, slaughtering families, taking families hostage, etc. Yes, I am aware that a bomb or missile into a building can kill innocents and for sure Israel has done that but, I'm not one to fall for the "cycle of violence" stuff. These two groups (and I know that one group is not exclusively a single entity) need to have it out and see what happens. Maybe one state is the solution.
I posted this clip from Steven Spielberg's Munich (the 2006 movie) yesterday deep in the comments on another post. I want to post it again because to me it captures the hopelessness of the impasse between the Israeli and Palestinians.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah have now claimed that Iranian Intelligence Officials provided Training, Equipment, and Direction for the recent Surprise Attack on Israel and gave the “Green Light” on when to begin at a Meeting of Senior Officials in Beirut last week.
Reading reports where Israeli Major General (Nimrod) and other Sr. IDF leaders taken hostage. Appears to me Hamas knew much about the local IDF operations in their areas of attack and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some IDF intrusion sympathetic to Hamas. Seems to well coordinated to assume there wasn't. If true, that would be a new weapon for Hamas as counter intelligence infiltration is unheard of over there.
Looks like the security services and military were blind-sided by the supreme court battle. I just can't believe that the most highly-surveilled state on Earth let this slip through.
From kibbutzim to rave parties, seems like Israeli degeneracy is no different to the West.
Israel has been pounding Hezbollah weapons deliveries in Syria for years now, with Iran in Syria I wonder what goodies they have been giving Hezbollah.
The effectiveness of Iranian drones in Ukraine might be a portent.
Consider this. Israel's strategy, in collusion with Neocons in US/UK, has been to foment chaos in the entire ME, under the theory that keeping governments weak would prevent any threat to Israel minor. But ...
Israel's refusal to come to terms with Syria has fueled the rise of Hezbollah, which has become an uncontrollable threat. It has also forced Syria into the arms of Iran. The attempt to overthrow Assad has backfired. Chaos in the region has spread and has led to the further rise of Iranian influence.
But all this can also be traced back to British (and French) meddling in the region. With the US muddling along in their wake, inheriting the messes.
Wondering if it has occurred to any our geniuses in DC that maybe all of the illegals crossing the boarder might have something less than noble intentions in their mind. I’ve been very worried that we are setting ourselves up for a calamity that will make 9/11 look like a Sunday School picnic.
Can you even imagine what kind of chaos multiple major internal attack in the US would unleash? Of course, you have to remember the left’s motto of “never let a crisis go to waste”! I hate that I have become so cynical and suspicious, but what has happened over the last couple of years does not inspire a warm fuzzy feeling about anything.
My apologies AC, don’t know what got into me, I was approaching this as a rational human being concerned about the affect of geopolitical developments and domestic policy on national security! Totally neglected to consider the seriousness of the militant Catholic groups, white supremacy/MEGA fanaticism( did I get that right Zhou, it’s MEGA isn’t it) and global warming coupled with a worldview based upon fantasy. Please forgive me for my egregious lapse, I’ll try and not let it happen again.
Every time you kill a terrorist you create more, especially if your definition of a terrorist is based on your own ideology (looking at you chris Wray and merit garland). Governments kill terrorists and harden their own lairs, then populations are outraged when blowback terrorism attacks civilians and the cycle escalates. Somehow people have been led to believe evil has been mostly vanquished and only appears as isolated incidents and then they are told who the evil ones are and what must be done about it (which is always additional evil).
Still baffled by how this operation seems to have gone completely unnoticed and undetected. I know that the fog is still way too heavy to make any insightful assessment but it is mind boggling how apparently no one anywhere had a clue that this was coming.
Luttwak's explanation makes some sense. I've seen it happen. Israel thought they had great sources in Hamas and it turned out that Hamas snookered them.
Ok, I understand being double crossed, but doesn’t it strike you as odd that some agency somewhere outside of Israel didn’t have at least a glimmer that something big was in the works?
Thx for the feedback Mark, always appreciated. My only complaint is that I hold you fully responsible for creating all of us MIH addicts out here, if we don’t get our daily fix of info we start to get the shakes :-)
Dennis Ross, in an article that I linked, states that Hezbollah warned UN "peacekeepers" to stay on their bases the day before. That strongly suggests they knew something was coming. The implication is that Hezbollah would have informed Iran. There are other ways to frame this. It has been suggested that Iran inspired this to prevent KSA from recognizing Israel. That makes some sense, but it also seems clear that the degree of planning for this went even further back. OTOH, things in general are going pretty well for Iran right now, so one wonders, Why now?
It will be interesting to see what Macgregor will have to offer on this development. Seems like a lot to unpack on this one once the fog begins to lift a bit.
The conspiracy theories are already doing the rounds, from the neocons mounting a "distraction" from Ukraine, to Bibi unleashing a Black Swan to get everyone to forget about the supreme court argument. At least no-one's blaming climate change. Yet.
Hamas fed rocket locations for Islamic Jihad, their competitor, to Israeli intelligence while seeming to be mellowing. Hitting Islamic Jihad kept Israel busy and distracted them from looking at what Hamas was doing. This article from Edward Luttwak is the best coverage I have seen
Of course this latest violence is inextricably connected to the larger issues of peace in the Middle East, the control and price of global energy resources, the Iran deal (see Lee Smith’s article linked above), the War on Russia, and America’s Endless War for Global Hegemony.
I don’t see how ‘Joe Biden’ delivers a happy ending.
Brilliant. Of course the Iranian view is that the US deserved to be decimated for the CIA/MI6 1953 coup against their legitimate government in order to continue looting Iran for its oil. But that was unreasonable on the part of the Iranians. Who did they think they were, to run their own country and profit from its resources?
The bigger event is a war with Iran and the USA. The narrative is being constructed to lead to it.
Can the West sustain a second hot front which will facilitate a Russian offensive to retake Odessa ? Then a third one looming on the horizon. Is the Biden administration not forced to act after the $6 B. deal ? is it not a setup that was sought after by both sides and by all parties directly involved in the Hamas "surprise" attack ?
I favor the simplest explanation--that Israeli intel thought they had great sources inside Hamas, but they were controlled. I think the US is finding itself like a juggler trying to keep two many (war) balls in the air at once.
I'm hearing Zhou and his administration is willing to send $6B to Hamas to secure the release of the 3 known American hostages being held by Hamas.
My knowledge of this area of the world is about a half inch deep so pardon me for saying but, I believe they need to fight it out and see who wins. This "two-state solution" thing is something I've been hearing since I was aware of the ME. It ain't gonna work people. Trying to live with Hamas, et al isn't gonna work. Yes, there are untold innocents in Gaza and the West Bank and I am certainly happy to not be one of them. That said, maybe this is the time to figure some s*** out.
I understand that Israel has probably done some things they're not proud of. What human population isn't BUT, as far as I can tell Israelis are not gunning down women and children on the highway, slaughtering families, taking families hostage, etc. Yes, I am aware that a bomb or missile into a building can kill innocents and for sure Israel has done that but, I'm not one to fall for the "cycle of violence" stuff. These two groups (and I know that one group is not exclusively a single entity) need to have it out and see what happens. Maybe one state is the solution.
Stay tuned!
100 years...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoAV0xF7A2U&t=13s
I posted this clip from Steven Spielberg's Munich (the 2006 movie) yesterday deep in the comments on another post. I want to post it again because to me it captures the hopelessness of the impasse between the Israeli and Palestinians.
Insofar as the USA is concerned, in my opinion, I will posit the following statement: the tree of entangling alliances always bears bitter fruits.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Both Hamas and Hezbollah have now claimed that Iranian Intelligence Officials provided Training, Equipment, and Direction for the recent Surprise Attack on Israel and gave the “Green Light” on when to begin at a Meeting of Senior Officials in Beirut last week.
3:59 PM · Oct 8, 2023
Reading reports where Israeli Major General (Nimrod) and other Sr. IDF leaders taken hostage. Appears to me Hamas knew much about the local IDF operations in their areas of attack and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some IDF intrusion sympathetic to Hamas. Seems to well coordinated to assume there wasn't. If true, that would be a new weapon for Hamas as counter intelligence infiltration is unheard of over there.
Looks like the security services and military were blind-sided by the supreme court battle. I just can't believe that the most highly-surveilled state on Earth let this slip through.
God help him
Here are links to articles confirming that:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=Major+General+(Nimrod)&ia=web
From kibbutzim to rave parties, seems like Israeli degeneracy is no different to the West.
Israel has been pounding Hezbollah weapons deliveries in Syria for years now, with Iran in Syria I wonder what goodies they have been giving Hezbollah.
The effectiveness of Iranian drones in Ukraine might be a portent.
Consider this. Israel's strategy, in collusion with Neocons in US/UK, has been to foment chaos in the entire ME, under the theory that keeping governments weak would prevent any threat to Israel minor. But ...
Israel's refusal to come to terms with Syria has fueled the rise of Hezbollah, which has become an uncontrollable threat. It has also forced Syria into the arms of Iran. The attempt to overthrow Assad has backfired. Chaos in the region has spread and has led to the further rise of Iranian influence.
But all this can also be traced back to British (and French) meddling in the region. With the US muddling along in their wake, inheriting the messes.
Plus Sunni pressure / funding against Shia backed forces in Syria.
And America turning a blind eye pre 9-11 to Saudi / Gulf Funding worldwide for their fundamentalist version of Islam.
Or Jimmy Carter and the Revolution in Iran.
Or how KSA welcomed the Muslim brotherhood after they were thrown out of Egypt.
Or the Palestinians backing Saddam Hussein.
Or the Nazis allying with the mufti if Jerusalem.
Or the Russians backing the plo during the Cold War.
Or the us taking out secular leadership in Libya and Iraq.
Or Zia’s using fundamentalist Islam to combat corruption, as well as India.
Or the idiots in Europe first with guest workers than Muslim refugees.
Or the us importing Somalis into Minnesota.
Or the non U.S. southern border
Bottom line - what a mess.
Wondering if it has occurred to any our geniuses in DC that maybe all of the illegals crossing the boarder might have something less than noble intentions in their mind. I’ve been very worried that we are setting ourselves up for a calamity that will make 9/11 look like a Sunday School picnic.
Can you even imagine what kind of chaos multiple major internal attack in the US would unleash? Of course, you have to remember the left’s motto of “never let a crisis go to waste”! I hate that I have become so cynical and suspicious, but what has happened over the last couple of years does not inspire a warm fuzzy feeling about anything.
You assume that is something our government should care about. Can't think of any recent examples to support this.
My apologies AC, don’t know what got into me, I was approaching this as a rational human being concerned about the affect of geopolitical developments and domestic policy on national security! Totally neglected to consider the seriousness of the militant Catholic groups, white supremacy/MEGA fanaticism( did I get that right Zhou, it’s MEGA isn’t it) and global warming coupled with a worldview based upon fantasy. Please forgive me for my egregious lapse, I’ll try and not let it happen again.
I hear ya and am right there with ya bro.
Every time you kill a terrorist you create more, especially if your definition of a terrorist is based on your own ideology (looking at you chris Wray and merit garland). Governments kill terrorists and harden their own lairs, then populations are outraged when blowback terrorism attacks civilians and the cycle escalates. Somehow people have been led to believe evil has been mostly vanquished and only appears as isolated incidents and then they are told who the evil ones are and what must be done about it (which is always additional evil).
It’s only as issue if you are not ruthless enough.
Harry Turtledove has a short story alternate history:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Article
Note: I don’t see Israel being that ruthless at this time.
Still baffled by how this operation seems to have gone completely unnoticed and undetected. I know that the fog is still way too heavy to make any insightful assessment but it is mind boggling how apparently no one anywhere had a clue that this was coming.
Luttwak's explanation makes some sense. I've seen it happen. Israel thought they had great sources in Hamas and it turned out that Hamas snookered them.
Ok, I understand being double crossed, but doesn’t it strike you as odd that some agency somewhere outside of Israel didn’t have at least a glimmer that something big was in the works?
Thx for the feedback Mark, always appreciated. My only complaint is that I hold you fully responsible for creating all of us MIH addicts out here, if we don’t get our daily fix of info we start to get the shakes :-)
Dennis Ross, in an article that I linked, states that Hezbollah warned UN "peacekeepers" to stay on their bases the day before. That strongly suggests they knew something was coming. The implication is that Hezbollah would have informed Iran. There are other ways to frame this. It has been suggested that Iran inspired this to prevent KSA from recognizing Israel. That makes some sense, but it also seems clear that the degree of planning for this went even further back. OTOH, things in general are going pretty well for Iran right now, so one wonders, Why now?
It will be interesting to see what Macgregor will have to offer on this development. Seems like a lot to unpack on this one once the fog begins to lift a bit.
Dennis Ross is a committed pro-Israel, Jewish-American, diplomat with decades of experience in the ME. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Ross
If he can provide a rational interview on the subject of what's currently going on, in the heat of the moment:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/07/israel-hamas-attack-00120498
‘There’s Going to Be a Lot of Soul-Searching in Israel When This Is Over’
Former U.S. peace negotiator Dennis Ross weighs in on Hamas’ attack on Israel and the “missed opportunities” that led to the war.
I expect commenters here to make a stab at that, too. Name calling is childish enough, but calls for genocide are out of bounds.
The conspiracy theories are already doing the rounds, from the neocons mounting a "distraction" from Ukraine, to Bibi unleashing a Black Swan to get everyone to forget about the supreme court argument. At least no-one's blaming climate change. Yet.
Deborah, I take insights where I can find them.
Hamas fed rocket locations for Islamic Jihad, their competitor, to Israeli intelligence while seeming to be mellowing. Hitting Islamic Jihad kept Israel busy and distracted them from looking at what Hamas was doing. This article from Edward Luttwak is the best coverage I have seen
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/israel-intelligence-failure-hamas-edward-luttwak
Iran is the real problem.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/why-iran-deal-matters
Of course this latest violence is inextricably connected to the larger issues of peace in the Middle East, the control and price of global energy resources, the Iran deal (see Lee Smith’s article linked above), the War on Russia, and America’s Endless War for Global Hegemony.
I don’t see how ‘Joe Biden’ delivers a happy ending.
“It’s the end of the world as we know it, and Joe feels fine...”
That was horrible. Her poor mum was speaking out about it.
There are dangerous levels of hysteria building up over this situation. Kinda reminds me of several other recent situations....
Brilliant. Of course the Iranian view is that the US deserved to be decimated for the CIA/MI6 1953 coup against their legitimate government in order to continue looting Iran for its oil. But that was unreasonable on the part of the Iranians. Who did they think they were, to run their own country and profit from its resources?
Exactly. Seems like all the bread crumbs lead back to Allen Dulles and his progeny.
And the British playing God and redrawing maps from offices in Whitehall.
Along with the French.
Sarcasm?