Israel/Gaza Sitrep, Kinda

The fog of war still enshrouds events in Israel/Gaza. It’s clear that the death toll will go higher on both sides, possibly much higher. I said that this is a “kinda” sitrep because I can’t pretend to know anything that isn’t widely available already. However, here’s one tweet (below) that appears to me to provide a reasonable state of the war for now. It’s probably out of date by now, but it does outline some important basic aspects.

The most important point, by far, is that Israel is urging the evacuation of communities along the border with Lebanon—some reports state that the evacuation is official and ongoing, not just recommended. The obvious reason is that Israel intends a ground invasion of Gaza—not a surprise. Hezbollah has stated that such an invasion will trigger its entry into the war and the evacuations are a signal that Israel will not be deterred. On the other hand, IDF planners are presumably assessing the situation around Gaza in planning a response to expected Hezbollah attacks. The allocation of units between the two fronts, as well as the West Bank, is doubtless a prime consideration.

For the time being Gaza will need to be the IDF priority, given that most of the fighting is taking place within Israeli towns whose populations had little or no time to evacuate. The threat to the civilian populations must therefore be assessed as high. Hezbollah’s missiles and its ground forces are far more sophisticated than Hamas’ rockets and irregulars, thus the evacuations along the northern border. The question is whether Israel will simply engage in a standoff exchange with Hezbollah—exchanging missile and air attacks—or will attempt a ground invasion of Lebanon (which went so badly in 2006).

Israel has been preparing for a renewal of hostilities, but Hezbollah is also a far more formidable and experienced force than it was in 2006. My guess is that Hezbollah is unlikely to attempt more than raids into Israel itself and will rely on its missiles to target northern Israel. Hezbollah is well dug in in the mountains of southern Lebanon, which means that Israel may be forced to make heavy use of its air force, rather than missile counter battery fire. Beyond that initial stage, events may dictate actions.

There are no clear ramifications in the region so far, except the possibility that Saudi Arabia may reverse a promised oil production increase in early next year. But these are all speculative matters for the time being. Statements by regional governments have been largely as would be expected.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -

@GeromanAT

Palestine–Israel: what is known at 18:00 Moscow time

— The death toll of Palestinians has risen to 370, with 2,200 injured, the Ministry of Health said. Israeli losses were 650 killed and 2,156 wounded.

— The IDF is moving heavy equipment to the Gaza Strip for ground operations, and to the northern border to repel a possible invasion from Lebanon.

As stated above, my guess is that Hezbollah is unlikely to attempt an actual invasion, but may attempt raids. The Israeli heavy equipment would be intended to deter larger incursions by targeting accumulations of Hezbollah forces.

— IDF aircraft continue to strike the Gaza Strip. According to the latest reports, the headquarters of the National Islamic Bank was attacked.

— Residents of northern Israeli settlements are being urged to evacuate due to a possible invasion.

— Hamas has not announced the exact number of hostages, as promised this morning.

— The Lebanese army announced Israeli attacks on its territory. The IDF also reported missile and drone launches from Lebanese territory.

— Hamas announced the start of mass shelling of Israeli territory at 18:00 and called on Hezbollah to join.

(wargonzo)

10:10 AM · Oct 8, 2023

My supposition, as stated yesterday, is that Hamas’ goal is twofold: to take sufficient hostages to serve as bargaining chips and to inflict mass casualties on Israel—which, by the nature of events will largely be of civilians.